Wiltshire trainer Emma Lavelle knows what it takes to land the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle having won it seven years ago. Her pride and joy, Paisley Park, then aged seven, went off the 11-8 favourite in March 2019 having already won all four previous starts that season.
MA SHANTOU, also trained by Lavelle, has a similar profile to Paisley Park except he has won only three of his four starts this season, bombing out for no apparent reason at Haydock. However, the seven-year-old gelding clearly loves Cheltenham having won three times from three runs at the course this season.
Today’s Stayers Hurdle (3.20 p.m.) will be Ma Shantou’s stiffest task by some way but he is an improving horse who relishes today’s three-mile trip and the seven-year-old gelding enjoys a good relationship with jockey Harry Coden. Back him 1 point each way at 11-2 BOG with bet365, paying four places.
Teahupoo, the favourite, will be hard to beat and Kabral Du Mathan could be the new kid on the block at this distance if his stamina holds out, having been transformed by trainer Dan Skelton to win both his starts this season.
In the opening race, the Grade 2 Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (1.20 p.m.), Bambino Fever comes here with a big reputation based on her Festival win in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper last year. However, in such a big field, she is terrible value at around evens.
I have already put up La Conquiere each way at 16-1 but she may even go off a bigger price now that 22 runners have been declared. I think she has every chance and is a great each-way price, especially with four places now available with some bookies.
At short prices, Oldschool Outlaw has a big shout in this race too and, at huge prices, the unbeaten Manganese could outrun her odds.
In the Grade 2 Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2 p.m.), I hope SIXMILEBRIDGE will give trainer Fergal O’Brien his first Cheltenham Festival win. This seven-year-old gelding, unbeaten in three runs this season, would be a really strong fancy for me on soft ground but I hope he can perform well enough to win this on good ground.
O’Brien deserves a change of luck at the Festival. Despite having 49 Cheltenham winners during his career, a Festival winner has so far eluded him despite several near misses.
Sadly, Sixmilebridge was tipped by Pricewise (Tom Segal) in the Racing Post last night and so the early 8-1 is long gone. Nevertheless, back him 2 points win at 4-1 BOG with bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes or Coral, because he might prove to be a class above these runners.
Fact to File is going to be very hard to beat in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase (4 p.m.) over just over two and a half miles. Last year he beat Heart Wood by a comfortable nine lengths and, although this year’s renewal is more competitive, Fact to File will win today if repeating that run.
I am going to go each way, however, on a horse at a huge price. JPR ONE improved for the step up to just over two and a half miles last time out, recording a decent time when winning at Musselburgh.
Now officially rated 160, he does not need to improve much on that run to get into the first three today. Back him 1 point each way at 40-1 BOG with bet365 or William Hill, both paying three places.
In the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (2.40 p.m.), there are only seven runners and so, with just two places, I have no desire to take on the favourite and likely winner Wodhooh with a horse each way.
The last two races today, the 24-runner Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (4.40 p.m.) and the 24-runner Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (5.20 p.m.) are hugely competitive.
I will give the Pertemps a miss but I want to back a horse at a decent price in the Kim Muir even though the two horses at the top of the market, Jeriko du Reponet and Waterford Whispers, look to have been laid out for this race.
Emma Lavelle has a high opinion of KING’S THRESHOLD and he won well at Newbury last time out. Since then, connections have waited patiently for good ground and he will get it today provided the heavy rain holds off until after racing. Back him 1 point each way at 20-1 BOG with bet36, paying five places.
Yesterday was a least profitable for followers of my tips with three horses placed at 50-1, 20-1 (Best Odds Guaranteed) and 9-1.
There is plenty of rain forecast over the 24 hours so the ground could be very different by the off tomorrow for Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup day. I will be back tomorrow morning to preview the final day of the festival.
Pending:
1 point each way La Conquiere at 16-1 for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
2 points win Sixmilebridge at 4-1 BOG in the Jack Richards Chase.
1 point each way Ma Shantou at 11-2 BOG in the Stayers’ Hurdle, playing 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way JPR One at 40-1 BOG in the Stayers’ Hurdle, playing 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way King’s Threshold at 20-1 BOG in the Kim Muir, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Helnwein at 33-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Non Runner (balloted out).
1 point each way Haiti Couleurs at 14-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Resplendent Grey at 50-1 for the Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Yesterday: + 6.8 points
1 point each way Wendigo at 9-1 BOG for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Fell – 2 points.
1 point each way Salver at 50-1 BOG for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 3rd. + 9 points.
1 point each way Derryhassen Paddy at 25-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Vanillier at 9-1 for the Cross Country, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 3rd. + 0.8 points.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 40-1 BOG for Champion Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Break My Soul at 20-1 BOG for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
2025-26 jumps season: running total – 11.985 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six full seasons of tipping: + 126 points
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