When Senator Lindsey Graham died suddenly last month from a heart condition, official Washington paused its partisan spitting contests to honor a Master of the Beltway. Not since John McCain’s funeral in 2018 had there been such a high display of institutional respect for a senator – complete with eulogies in the Capitol Rotunda and an invitation-only funeral at the National Cathedral attended by foreign leaders.
But now South Carolina has to decide who replaces the Great Man. We are used to a political climate dominated by candidates who embrace egotistical posturing and exaggerate their qualifications. So on one level it was refreshing to see the South Carolina debate last night. Lindsey’s sister Darline Graham candidly admitted she’s just one of the folks and not particularly qualified for the Senate seat she was handed through nepotism after the death of her brother.
Her honesty was also on display when she declined to answer a question about the importance of Taiwan and the South China Sea to US security. First, she asked the moderator to repeat the question. Then she said, “I’m just going to be honest here… I’m not that informed on national security.” There were murmurs in the audience while she paused. “But I do support the military.” Then she reiterated that her brother had served 33 years in the US Air Force. No doubt some of her best friends are also in uniform.
After the debate, stunned reporters asked her about her answer, to which the Senator told them that South Carolinians are “worried about their pockets more than they’re worried about the South China Sea.”
Again, no doubt a true statement. But one that is unlikely to endear her to voters in the Republican primary runoff next Tuesday. Graham underperformed in the August 11 primary, receiving 33 percent of the vote to Congressman Ralph Norman’s 24 percent. Norman is no Cicero when it comes to rhetoric and comes across as a bit of a bombastic Senator Beauregard Claghorn, a stereotypical Southern politician made famous by radio comedian Fred Allen in the 1940s.
Norman was canny enough to note that his ten years as a leader in the obstreperous Freedom Caucus of House Republicans showed he both knows Washington and has sometimes even fought its establishment. As for Darline Graham, Norman only addressed her debate flubs by noting her bureaucratic service as head of the South Carolina Commission for the Blind makes her an “unknown” quantity.
In a new ad, Norman drives that home by saying, “You shouldn’t have to guess where your next senator stands: with me, you already know.” He then claims the Beltway establishment has already selected “their candidate… Same old playbook, same old insiders. I’m not their choice.”
However, the Graham campaign notes that President Trump has endorsed the incumbent, is actually flying to Myrtle Beach to campaign for her this Friday and that “to suggest Donald Trump is part of the establishment is a joke.”
After ten years as the Great Disruptor of American politics, Donald Trump is increasingly viewed as an establishment figure, and one mired in Beltway problems such as affordability and an on-again, off-again war with Iran that resist a solution. His endorsements once determined GOP primary winners, but in this month’s primaries he has seen allies such as MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell in Minnesota and scandal-tarred Representative Cory Mills in Florida lose.
Trump is backing Darline Graham for a full term in the Senate in part out of fondness for her brother. This is the kind of thing that happens in the swamp.
A longtime conservative lobbyist tells me he is busy raising money for Graham despite the fact that her views on some issues are vague. His longtime association with Lindsey Graham had let him know his entire staff: “Many were with Lindsey for two decades, I’m tied in to them all and they really get things done on the issues I care about. So we’re really electing Lindsey’s staff to another term.” And, he might have added, providing job security for Lindsey’s Lobbyist Factory along Washington’s K Street.
There’s precedent for that in South Carolina. In 1996, the legendary Strom Thurmond won an eighth term in the US Senate at the age of 94. Everyone knew he was diminished and forgetful. But his constituency services were nonpareil, he got federal money to flow from Washington spigots back home and his staff ran the show to such an extent that Thurmond’s longtime chief of staff “Duke” Short was referred to as the “101st Senator” inside the Capitol.
But South Carolina has changed. It’s now the fastest growing US state, fueled by its mild climate, affordability and job opportunities. Over 800 foreign companies operate in the state, employing over 163,000 people at firms ranging from BMW, Michelin to Fujifilm. Population spillover from Charlotte, the North Carolina banking center just across the border, has made Ralph Norman’s once rural York County a major population center with 308,000 people. The Charleston metro area, once a great center of social rest, now has 750,000 people – of which 10 percent are recent newcomers.
Over his 32-year political career, Lindsey Graham adapted to these changes in his state but never fully won over conservatives who were suspicious of his bipartisan fients in areas such as immigration and foreign conflicts. In his last GOP primary race in June, he won only 56.8 percent of the vote against a field of unknowns. If he had fallen below 50 percent he would have been forced into a runoff he could well have lost.
That’s because the voter turnout in runoff elections is different even from low-turnout primaries. “Usually only 70 percent of people who vote in primaries also participate in the runoff,” says Andrew Boucher, the chair of the Charleston Republican party. “The electorate is older, even more conservative than the primary and more interested in a candidate’s stance on issues.” The fact that a candidate can “bring home the bacon” from Washington is a secondary issue for such voters.
Darline Graham hasn’t developed the skills her brother had. In the debate she promised to be more aggressive on illegal immigration than her brother, but when a reporter asked her post-debate if she had a stance on H-1B visas for foreign workers she dodged. “I do not,” she responded.
She also demonstrated her belief that South Carolina voters are still fixated on federal funding as a solution to their problems. When asked in the debate about healthcare affordability, she touted the efforts her brother had made to pour money into rural hospitals. By contrast, Norman discussed free-market solutions such as expanding health savings accounts, allowing shopping for insurance across state lines and price transparency for healthcare. Graham appeared to look at him as if he were speaking a foreign language.
Nepotism has a long tradition in American politics, but it has its limits. Darline Graham is likely to bump up against them in next Tuesday’s primary runoff. In Southern states, the still common phrase “bless your heart” is used to express either deep sympathy or, depending on tone, a polite jab implying someone is foolish or helpless. Next week, the kind Republican voters of South Carolina are likely to employ both meanings when they tell Senator Darline Graham – “bless your heart.”
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