David Shipley

Britain is facing huge demographic change

(Photo: Getty)

This week, the ONS published data on births during 2025. According to their data, for the first time over 40 per cent of children born in England and Wales had at least one foreign-born parent. This rate has risen from 34 per cent in 2021, pre-Boriswave. As recently as 2008 children of foreign parents were only 30 per cent of the population and in 1998, before the ‘Blairwave’, they represented fewer than 20 per cent of births.

Perhaps this means that new arrivals are marrying native Brits? Mixed births have crept up, from 4 per cent in 2007 to 7 per cent in 2025. Significant increases have been recorded in Bangladeshi, Indian, Pakistani, ‘Other Asian’ and Black African births. Meanwhile only 53 per cent of births last year were White British babies (down from 64 per cent in 2007).

With annual immigration remaining above 800,000, and a quarter of a million Brits emigrating each year, this data points inexorably to the White British becoming a minority within a matter of decades. Indeed, with these birth rate trends, even if we were to close the borders, ending all immigration and emigration, White British would still become a demographic minority, albeit at a slower rate.

Often we have been told that this doesn’t matter, that it is somehow dubious or ‘racist’ to care about native Brits being replaced, or even to suggest that migrants who live here are in any way different from the native population. If everyone just ‘integrates’ and abides by ‘British Values’, all will be well.

Even the state no longer sustains this delusion. In this year’s Communities Strategy, ‘Protecting What Matters’, the Prime Minister describes an integration ‘emergency’, and the report itself notes that ‘multiple reviews’ (including Cantle, Casey and Khan) have ‘warned of communities… living segregated or parallel lives’, and that were are at risk of ‘further fraying community relations’. Mass-migration, and the integration we were promised, have both failed. Now we live in a country of distinct communities who tend to work and associate within their own groups.

None of this is surprising. ‘In-group preference’ – the tendency of people to prefer people of the same ethnic and cultural background – is a well-observed finding in psychology, and its effects are seen in where people live, how they socialise and who they hire. There is also good evidence that in-group preference drives voting behaviour, both at the party / policy level and on the basis of candidate ethnicity – Oxford University research found that Pakistani candidates received an ‘eight-point average electoral bonus from Pakistani voters’ in Britain. These preferences likely explain both the rise of the Muslim ‘independent’ vote and increased Muslim support for the Green party.

They may also provide a partial explanation for some other data, published this week. The ONS reports that over a million young Brits are not in education, employment or training (Neets) – 13.5 per cent of all 16-24 year olds. One reason for this has been identified by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), who have found that, since 2020, net employment has gone up 27 times more for non-EU migrants under 25 than young Brits. What this means is that while there are only 11,000 more young Brits on payrolls than there were in 2020, 290,000 more young non-EU nationals are being employed. Over the same period, the number of young Neets is up almost 200,000. The CSJ is clear: ‘the crisis in youth worklessness is being “fuelled” by mass immigration’.

Part of this, no doubt, is because migrants are likely to be willing to work longer hours than a young Brit finishing their A Levels or studying for a degree. But in-group preference may also be at play. Many of the traditional jobs for young people were in sectors like retail and hospitality, and where those businesses are owned or managed by non-natives, they may prefer hiring new arrivals of their own ethnicity.

And what of British birthrates? There are hints in the data that remigration might help there too. In 2021, when migration was close to zero as a result of Covid, White British births made a small recovery before plummeting as the Boriswave began. A country where young people can find work is likely to be one where they find partners and start work sooner. Without the pressure on housing costs from migration, it would be cheaper for those couples to find homes and start families.

All of this means that it is not in the interests of the British people to become a minority. We would face bloc votes electing politicians who would act in the interests of their groups, not ours. These groups and their politicians would continue to favour high migration rates, exacerbating the youth employment crisis. Those groups which are on average far less economically productive would vote to extract wealth from the British population. All of this would further suppress the native birth rate. And there would be nothing we could do about it.

There has never been any democratic consent for mass migration. Indeed, the British electorate have voted against it again and again. Now, after decades of being ignored, we face becoming a minority, marginalised and ultimately replaced in our own country. That is wrong. The Scots, Welsh and English, have been here for at least 1,500 years. It is perfectly right to wish to remain a majority in our home. To that end, merely slowing the pace of replacement is not enough. Recent arrivals like the Boriswave must return home.

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