Freed from the burden of choosing a prospective government, by-elections are an opportunity for voters to tell the political class how they really feel. It is therefore no great surprise that the people of Gorton and Denton, until now a solid Labour heartland, have called on the uber-left Greens to give the status quo a kicking, with Reform coming in second. For the Conservatives, the more interesting story is not the Greens’ success in outer Manchester, but what the Green surge at the national level says about the voters who have been drifting into Zack Polanski’s orbit.
The Greens have previously benefited from the agreeable vagueness of their brand. Green is a comforting word, smelling of cut grass and virtue. A Green vote could be a small, moral nudge asking the political class to do better to protect the local river, or a guilt-free protest vote.
The Greens have previously benefited from the agreeable vagueness of their brand
Particularly in the old Tory shires, that nudge has become visible. At the last general election there was a small but notable trend of well-heeled, well-meaning voters moving toward the Greens and away from the Conservatives. An official Blue-to-Green switch took place in two parliamentary seats in 2024, with Bill Wiggin, Tory incumbent since 2001, seeing his vote share cut in half and losing his North Herefordshire seat. Even if the MP remains blue, Conservative activists are feeling the pressure mount from the Greens at the local level.
But something is changing. The Green party’s raison d’être has shifted from environmentalism to sectarianism. Its previous appeal – pushing politicians to do more for the environment – has shifted to a general cry of left-wing outrage, majoring on Palestine, revolutionary ideas for the economy and ayatollah apologism.
This is not accidental. In a fragmented political landscape, clarity is currency and outrage is the order of the day. To grow beyond their traditional enclaves, the Greens, under Zack Polanski’s leadership, have leaned into a more assertive identity.
In seats like Gorton and Denton, that pivot makes strategic sense, allowing Polanksi’s party to present themselves as a purer, less managerial version of Labour, with no doubt where they stand on Palestine.
However, if you care about your local park but don’t want to ‘globalise the intifada’, a Green vote may become hard to justify. This is true not just for some Green voters but, as James Heale pointed out this week, some promiment Green members who are jumping ship in opposition to this radical turn. With this, an opportunity presents itself for Kemi Badenoch to reclaim for the Conservatives the mantle of the party of the environment.
A strong offer on the environment is an essential part of the ‘sniff test’ for voters that have started looking elsewhere. Whatever you may think of Badenoch’s commitment to scrap the Climate Change Act, to the average voter, unconcerned with policy detail but still concerned about climate change, this sounds like a bad thing. Some solid commitments on the natural environment would be the perfect antidote – and a sign to ‘green’ voters that there is a home for them in the Tories.
This move would not be a bolt from the blue. The Conservative record on natural environment policy is positively glowing, but often ignored. During its last 14 years in power, the party took unprecedented steps to protect and restore nature at home and abroad. This record is in contrast to Labour’s dire record on nature, farming, and the countryside since the general election.
If the Conservatives don’t seize the opportunity, others will. Reform may well have said a strong ‘no’ to net zero but they are no fools. Their manifesto included commitments to plant more trees and tackle plastic pollution, low hanging environmental ideas that go down well with most voters. Richard Tice has since supported calls to mandate swift bricks in every new home; more cute and cuddly nature commitments are suspected to be on their way.
If the Conservatives don’t want to be seen as late to the party, time is of the essence. They should get out there first with a strong offer that extends beyond farming and prioritises British biodiversity, protecting native species and restoring precious habitats. Such an agenda is not about out-reforming Reform, or out-greening the Greens. It is an issue that many voters care about, regardless of who they vote for. Having an unashamedly pro-nature offer does not need to defy Badenoch’s instincts, but show what sensible, conservative stewardship of the natural world looks like.
While a compelling offer on nature is not going to win the party a majority on its own, it can help the Tories to pass the sniff test with sceptical voters, with a local election wipeout on the horizon, and only 116 MPs to their name. Politics abhors a vacuum. If the Greens are giving up on the environment, the Conservatives should reclaim the mantle they should never have lost.
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