With more rain to come, the ground at Newbury tomorrow is going to be really testing for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (3.20 p.m.). That will make the result more of a lottery because several of the horses at the top of the market would not ideally want it looking like a bog.
Those preferring a sounder surface may include my long-term tip for the race, Dance and Glance, put up each way at 20-1. He does have form on soft ground but Newbury ‘heavy’ is a different kettle of fish altogether.
Hot Fuss did this column a good turn, winning at a double-figure price at Windsor three weeks ago and he is capable of defying a 5 lbs penalty tomorrow. However, this is a more competitive race off his higher mark and, on balance, odds of around 10-1 are not big enough for me to stay loyal to him.
At tastier prices, I would rather have a second bet on trainer Jamie Snowden’s MILLDAM, an out-and-out mudlark who ran well enough behind Hot Fuss at Windsor and is much better off at the revised weights, including the 5 lbs claim of jockey Isabelle Ryder.
There are dangers aplenty in this 16-runner field over two miles
The horse won no less than three times on ‘heavy’ in the 2023-4 season and he will be staying on when other rivals have cried enough. The more of the wet stuff, the better his chances. Back Milldam 1 point each way at 18-1 with bet365, paying five places.
There are dangers aplenty in this 16-runner field over two miles. The Skelton brothers, trainer Dan and jockey Harry, are brilliant at targeting these big handicap hurdles and it is easy to see why their lightly-raced runner, the appropriately named Let It Rain, is favourite.
He ran the perfect prep race for tomorrow’s contest when a close third in a hot race at Ascot in December and he is almost certain to come on for that run, his seasonal debut. However, odds of 5-2 are skinny and I am happy to let him go unbacked and very likely win at that price.
In fact, from a betting point of view, I can leave the other big weekend races alone, with heavy ground and lots of small fields not ideal for a punter like me. I hope to see Haiti Couleurs win the four-runner Grade 2 William Hill Denman Chase (2.10 p.m.) at Newbury and Mambonumberfive win the three-runner Grade 2 Bet Smarter With Oddschecker Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (1.50 p.m.) at Warwick.
However, that’s only because both horses are in my ante-post portfolio for the Cheltenham Festival and I won’t be backing either at short odds in their respective races tomorrow.
Instead, the entries for the Randox Grand National on 11 April were announced last week, and at the prices, I want to back one horse even before the weights are announced later this month.
The horse in question is the Olly Murphy-trained RESPLENDENT GREY who has been lightly raced this season, with a tilt at the big Aintree race very much at the forefront of connections’ minds ever since he landed the bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Sandown in April.
Resplendent Grey is a tough stayer and, for the main, a good jumper despite his poor show when well-fancied for the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury in November. His other two runs in small fields this season have been sound enough but he is better suited by a big field and a fast pace in a marathon contest. He will clearly get all three conditions at Aintree in the spring.
The eight-year-old gelding, a grey, goes well on pretty much all ground conditions and, if he lines up, he will have champion jockey Sean Bowen in the saddle. One thing is certain, he will not be 50-1 on the day if, as expected, he contests the big race and so take that huge price now, 1 point each way, with bet365, paying four places.
Of course, the Irish trained runners, notably those from the Willie Mullins yard, have dominated the Aintree Grand National in recent years and they may well do so again. But that means one or two of the British-trained runners are likely to go into the race overpriced.
Pending:
1 point each way Dance and Glance at 20-1 for the William Hill Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Milldam at 18-1 for the William Hill Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Romeo Coolio at 16-1 for the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mambonumberfive at 20-1 for the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Golden Ace at 16-1 for the Champion Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Laurens Bay at 25-1 for the NH Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Derryhassen Paddy at 25-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Haiti Couleurs at 14-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Resplendent Grey at 50-1 for the Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Two weekends ago: – 1.6 points
1 point each way One Horse Town at 7-1for the JCB Triumph Trial, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 2nd. + 0.4 points.
1 point each way Prairie Wolf at 16-1 for the Betfair Exchange Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2025-26 jumps season: running total + 3.015 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six full seasons of tipping: + 126 points
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