Andy Burnham’s move to impose sanctions on West Bank settlements is politically savvy – but not because it will achieve his purported aim of advancing a two-state solution.
For one thing, the impact in Israel will be minimal. Ed Miliband was clear that the new sanctions regime will target those “providing services such as construction or financing for Israeli settlements”, while trade within the Green Line will continue. Yet the principal providers of such services to the settlements are Israeli banks, major companies and the Israeli government itself. Short of Miliband sanctioning them, the policy is unlikely to achieve much. The economies of the West Bank and Green Line Israel are completely intertwined. Of course, if the Foreign Secretary did opt for the full-fat boycott, the cost to Britain’s economy and intelligence services would be too great. It would run counter to the national interest, and this is why Labour won’t go near the option.
Israeli diplomats are also conscious that the public and political class in Jerusalem largely do not care what Labour MPs think. It is the approval of the US government that matters. If Donald Trump turned against the settlements, then Israel might act. Meanwhile, not one of the serious contenders in the forthcoming Israeli elections is campaigning to withdraw from the West Bank. That is because 7 October extinguished the remaining vestiges of support for a two-state solution within Israeli society. Miliband’s sanctions will not suddenly persuade the major parties to commit electoral suicide by changing course.
If anything, this pre-election announcement risks emboldening the more extreme messianic politicians who actively want to isolate Israel from the international community and transform it from a thriving secular democracy into a theocracy resembling others in the region. Ahead of an enormously consequential election, the policy could prove counterproductive.
So, if the move is largely symbolic and will have no material effect on the prospects of a two-state solution, why is it so politically astute? To state the obvious, it offers a field day to Labour MPs desperate to win back left-wing and Muslim voters. Jubilant backbenchers have lined up in the Commons to secure their viral moments, ready to be clipped and shared on social media.
At Labour party conference in just over two weeks, Burnham will be primed to boast about his tough stance on Israel and his commitment to Palestinian justice. The sanctions will be extremely popular with Green, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters – precisely the coalition Burnham needs if he is to take on the right at the next general election. Those who hate Israel but can’t quite bring themselves to go Green will be delighted. From a domestic political perspective, this is a strategic move by the left.
Yet for the loudest pro-Gaza campaigners, nothing is ever enough. Short of Burnham adopting a policy aimed at dismantling Israel as a Jewish state, the Islamists and their useful idiots on the left will never be satisfied. Israel’s existence represents one of the greatest obstacles to the Islamist ambition for global domination. That is why radical Muslims are prepared to overlook their profound differences with trans activists and blue-haired progressives in pursuit of what they regard as the greater cause: destroying Israel’s Jewish majority.
For the loudest pro-Gaza campaigners, nothing is ever enough
I am the first to admit that the Israeli government is riddled with morons and idiots who embarrass both the state and Jewish people around the world on an almost daily basis. They are unbearable. Unfortunately, Burnham and Miliband’s posturing will do nothing to silence them, as it will not bring the Middle East any closer to a durable peace.
What this episode does reveal is the considerable pull that certain interest groups exert over the Labour government. The public must now decide how it feels about that.
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