If Andy Burnham, Britain’s new and surprisingly well-liked Prime Minister, were looking for another quick popularity boost, he might decide to order the deployment of a flotilla of Royal Navy vessels towards the South Atlantic today – so as to warn the Argentinians off the Falkland Islands.
A good bit of gunship diplomacy is exactly what Britain needs at this point in history. Nothing would delight the public more than sticking one up the Argies again, especially after the England football team lost to a particularly unpleasant Argentinian side in the World Cup this summer.
Of course, Burnham will not channel his inner Margaret Thatcher when it comes to the Falklands. Partly that’s because his entire political mission is to undo the harms of Thatcherism. But it’s also because, as the world knows, Britain is no longer a sea power, or a serious military power, in any meaningful sense.
The Royal Navy today couldn’t dream of sending a similar-sized task force to the one which helped win the Falklands War in 1982. Britain now only has one warship permanently assigned to the Atlantic, HMS Medway, and even at a pinch, the UK government could only call into action perhaps five battle-ready ships at short notice.
This is the decline that President Javier Milei referred to in his big statement about Las Malvinas. “In the world, the winds are blowing favorably for our claim right now,” he declared in a televised address to the nation. “If we evaluate the United Kingdom, they confront multiple crises of a migratory, demographic and economic character that will be difficult to solve. However, Argentina is flourishing.”
One can’t help wondering if a darker game is afoot
Let’s put aside the fact that the UK economy is still about six times larger than Argentina’s and admit that Britain is not the force it once was. If Argentina were to launch an invasion of the islands, Britain simply would not be in a position to defend them without American support.
That’s where Donald Trump comes in. As Milei was eager to note, the US is re-evaluating its position on the Falklands. Trump remembers the 1980s very well and told GB News this week before Milei’s statement: “I was there when they had the first [Falklands] war. That was a long time ago, and I watched it so carefully. And you comported yourselves very well… That’s a big trip, it’s a long way…
“So, your country’s not doing well. Don’t forget, you get a big percentage of your oil from the Strait of Hormuz, and you weren’t there to help me. Your country was not there to help me. We didn’t need help, but I did ask NATO, and I asked your former leader, ‘Why didn’t you send a couple of ships?’ He said we don’t have any, and it was pretty sad… But the Falklands is very interesting because your country is not the same country it was 20 years ago, 25 years ago. It was a long time ago. And you went there and you just took it back very quickly and there were no games. So I don’t know if you’re prepared to do that. I just don’t know if you have the capacity to do that.”
That mention of oil is interesting. As the Americano newsletter has previously covered, that black gold, which Trump so prizes, lies at the heart of the Falklands issue.
Drilling of the Sea Lion Field, in the North Falklands Basin, is due to begin in a matter of months and should rake in billions for the islands and the Israeli and British businesses that have invested in the project.
Argentina wants in on that action. Milei yesterday announced new sanctions on foreign oil companies working near the Falklands – as well as sanctions on individuals in the sector, which could prove interesting.
Navitas Petroleum, an Israeli group, currently holds a 65 percent stake in the Sea Lion Field operations, while Rockhopper, a UK-based company (with significant Israeli interests), has 35 percent.
Tel Aviv is also angry about NATO’s reluctance to support the Iran war effort. Israel has turned sharply away from Britain and towards Milei in recent months. Marc Zell, who serves as chairman of Republicans Overseas Israel, and other US-Israel supporters have been pushing Trump to reconsider the Falklands question in recent months. The Pentagon has also been toying with the idea as a possible punishment for Britain’s foreign policy and defense shortcomings.
It does seem odd – fishy, even – that Israel should be so involved in turning America against British interests in the Falklands, when it is Israeli businesses that stand to benefit most from the imminent Sea Lion exploration. Israeli officials insist their government has no ties, or loyalty, to the private exploration of the basin. Maybe so. But given Trump’s inevitable wish to “take the oil”; the sheer amount of money potentially on offer from Sea Lion for Israeli business; the shifting power balance between Milei and Burnham; and the clear influence of pro-Argentinian Israeli voices within Trumpworld, one can’t help wondering if a darker game is afoot.
Is there some complicated and deceptive knife-fight going on between international energy brokers? Or is the Sea Lion Field perhaps not as rich in oil as hitherto thought?
This article originally appeared in Freddy Gray’s Americano newsletter, which you can subscribe to here.
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