England fans have been scarred by the Azteca stadium in the past. High on the Mexican plateau, the giant concrete fortress was where Maradona scored with the ‘Hand of God’ and dumped England out of the 1986 World Cup. For Mexico, the Azteca is equally significant. Every pundit seems to know this, saying that Mexico has only lost twice there since 1966, so England might as well pack their bags already. But how impressive are Mexico at the Azteca, and how might it affect the England players?
The giant concrete fortress was where Maradona scored with the ‘Hand of God’
It is true that Mexico have only lost twice at the Azteca in competitive games, and they have also had 17 draws, giving them an extremely high win rate of almost 80 per cent. But it is important to note that, as a member of Concacaf (ie, North and Central America and the Caribbean), most of Mexico’s competitive games are against mid-to-low-ranking neighbouring countries such as Honduras, Panama and Jamaica.
If you broaden it out to all 154 games since 1966, including friendlies against better opposition, the win rate falls to 69 per cent. When you look at teams that are consistently among Fifa’s top-ranked nations – Brazil, Spain, Argentina and so on – that record drops to eight wins from 20 games: a 40 per cent win rate.
Does a 2–1 win against Brazil from 60 years ago really have a lasting effect on the current team, the average age of which is 26? Probably as little as England’s loss to Argentina in 1986 affects the current crop of England players. Even if you discount the older fixtures, Mexico’s recent record at the Azteca is still impressive: they last lost there in 2013 to Honduras in a World Cup qualifier and have been undefeated in the 22 games since. But it is worth noting that the average Fifa ranking of their opponents was 57th, according to football analysts Opta. In the past five years they have played only one top side, Portugal, and that was a goalless draw.
Needless to say, there will be a lot of pressure on the Mexican players from their fans: they have not reached a World Cup quarter-final since the last time they hosted the tournament. So far they have played three of their four World Cup games at the Azteca and won all of them.
One reason Mexico have been so impressive there is not necessarily the Azteca’s effect on the players’ minds, but their bodies. The stadium is one of the highest in the world, sitting at 2,200m above sea level. At that altitude, the air is thin enough to hasten fatigue among the players, as their ability to absorb oxygen is reduced. Physios say that a player’s aerobic capacity drops by around 10 per cent, meaning that they might also cover 10 per cent less ground.
This is dangerous for the England team, which relies on its best players to act as pack animals. Across the tournament, Harry Kane and Elliot Anderson have each run the equivalent of a marathon, with Ezri Konsa and Jude Bellingham close behind on 39,800m. Tonight they face an altitude twice that of England’s highest peak, Scafell Pike.
For the Mexican squad, it is easier. Many came through the academies of Mexico’s biggest clubs, Cruz Azul and América, who are both based at the Azteca, and many still play in Mexico: five for Guadalajara, at an altitude of 1570m; three for clubs in Mexico City, at 2200m; and three in Toluca, c. 2660m.
Already, Thomas Tuchel is saying it is ‘impossible’ to prepare for the altitude as you need around ten days to properly acclimatise. However the players are still all hyper-fit athletes who have to play in all manner of conditions. The altitude may be the toughest physical challenge yet, but it should not be an excuse for playing bad football. Argentina and Germany overcame it to reach the final in 1986 – Mexico did not. Why shouldn’t England?
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