Newmarket handler James Tate has his string in sparkling form and he doesn’t waste bullets by sending horses to Royal Ascot unless they have a chance of winning.
Tate has enjoyed six winners from 19 runners over the past fortnight for a winning strike rate of 32 per cent. His only runner so far this week at Royal Ascot, Blue Rc, was second in the Royal Hunt Cup at 28-1 to a well-handicapped horse in Rogue Diplomat.
Tate doesn’t waste bullets by sending horses to Royal Ascot unless they have a chance of winning
I think his horse, DARN HOT GALLOP has a big chance today of winning the Sandringham Stakes (5 p.m.). She is three wins from four races, her only defeat coming when she was outclassed in the Betfred 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in early May.
This three-year-old filly can race today off an official mark of 86 and the form of her penultimate run, when first on her handicap debut at Newmarket, could hardly have worked out better with the second, third and sixth going on to win handicaps. Darn Hot Gallop races today off a mark of just 3 lbs higher than for that Newmarket win which leaves her dangerously well handicapped.
My major concern, however, is her draw in stall 4 when high numbers have generally had a significant advantage on the straight course this week. In the Britannia Stakes over the straight mile yesterday, the first 12 horses home were drawn 15 or higher. Furthermore, most of the market leaders in the Sandringham have high draws too suggesting that is where the pace could be.
However, I am going to take a chance that Darn Hot Gallop can still run a big race despite her low draw. Back her 1 point each way at 16-1 with William Hill, paying six places Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG). She might well drift in the betting because of the draw bias in which case the BOG offer is a bonus.
Venetian Sun and Albert Einstein head the market for today’s Group 1 Commonwealth Cup (3.05 p.m.) over six furlongs but, at the odds, I would rather be on trainer Charlie Appleby’s WISE APPROACH who was second at this meeting last year and who also has a course victory to his name from last season too.
William Buick is in the saddle today and so back him 1 point each way at 10-1 with Paddy Power or Bet Victor, both paying four places.
There is plenty of good racing tomorrow to round off a wonderful week at Royal Ascot. I have already put up Sayidah Dariyan each way at 50-1 for the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (3.40 p.m.). With a nice draw in stall 19 and with Billy Loughnane in the saddle, I remain hopeful of a return on the bet.
However, Spectator Life readers are a knowledgeable and enthusiastic bunch when it comes to their racing and loyal reader “Gay Icarus” has been banging the drum of the Australian-trained Joliestar for some time now and this five-year-old mare will be very hard to beat. Indeed, he wrote in the Comment section as long ago as May 1: “If she shows up fit and well, barring really bad luck, she simply wins.”
I am going to back another big-priced horse in the Wokingham Stakes (5 p.m.), an ultra-competitive sprint handicap over six furlongs. MITBAAHY has had any number of health problems over the past two seasons, including undergoing two wind operations. However, the seven-year-old gelding’s handler, Charlie Hills, is convinced he has his charge back to his best and he has booked young Billy Loughnane for the ride. A potentially helpful draw in stall 27 is a bonus too so back Mitbaahy 1 point each way at 66-1 with Sky Bet, paying six places.
In the last race on the card, the Queen Alexandra Stakes (6.10 p.m.), over a distance of more than two miles five furlongs, BERKSHIRE SUNDANCE is rated only 96 so he will need to run a career best to win this.
There is plenty of good racing tomorrow to round off a wonderful week at Royal Ascot
However, after his big run in the Chester Cup early last month, I think he is going to be suited by the marathon trip and he can run a big race for the Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy trainer/jockey combination. Back Berkshire Sunrise 1 point each way at 18-1 with Sky Bet, paying four places.
And, finally, here is a bet for the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday, July 4. Ombudsman heads the betting at short odds but he will surely not be asked to appear so soon after his Royal Ascot win this week in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. The Irish will be well represented but Owen Burrows’ GETHIN looks a big each way price as this race looks to be his next target.
His seasonal debut when second, beaten a neck to Ombudsman at Sandown reads well now, even though he was in receipt of 7 lbs. He handles both soft and good ground but I fear he would not be a certain runner if the ground went really firm. However, back him 1 point each way at 9-1 with bet365 and other smaller bookies, paying three places.
I am pleased to say it has been a profitable week of tipping for Penworthy at Royal Ascot with the highlight being Rogue Diplomat’s win in the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday. Put up at 25-1, he actually drifted to 28-1 at the off but, if that’s the worst thing that happens in a tough week for finding winners, I can live with it. From just seven selections that have run so far this week, two others have been placed at 33-1 and 10-1.
I will be back next week looking at the only all-weather race that grabs my attention every year: the JenningsBet Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. I have a strong fancy for the race but I will not put him up now as he looks likely to miss the “cut”, in which case he would run the Northumberland Vase instead.
Pending:
1 point each way Wise Approach at 10-1 for the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Darn Hot Gallop at 16-1 for the Sandringham, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Sayidah Dariyan at 50-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mithaaby at 66-1 for the Wokingham, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Berkshire Sundance at 18-1 for the Queen Alexandra, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Gethin for the Coral-Eclipse, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
This week so far: + 29.85 points
1 point each way Docklands at 9-1 BOG for the Queen Anne Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way American Affair at 8-1 BOG for the King Charles III Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Jakajaro at 33-1 BOG for the King Charles III Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 5th. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Rogue Diplomat at 25-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. 1st +31.25 points.
1 point each way Oolong Poobong at 12-1 for the Kensington Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rahiebb at 14-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Outback Heat at SP for the Kensington Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, most places. 2nd. + 1 point.
2026 flat season running total: + 14.025 points.
2025-26 jumps season: – 57.785 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for seven full seasons of tipping: + 68.215 points
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