Vladimir Putin’s subordinates are bending over backwards to ensure Saturday’s Victory Day parade in Moscow goes ahead smoothly. Mobile internet has been cut off, air defence systems are being redeployed to the capital, and threats to bomb Ukraine if it dares disrupt the celebrations have been issued. Yesterday, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the Kremlin had written to foreign governments urging them to evacuate staff from Kyiv. She warned of ‘inevitable’ and ‘massive’ retaliatory strikes on the Ukrainian capital should the ‘terrorist regime’ in Kyiv attack Moscow on Putin’s sacred day.
The threats follow Russia’s proposed ‘Victory Day truce’ for 8 and 9 May, which Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have rejected. The Ukrainian President had challenged his Russian counterpart to prove he was interested in genuine de-escalation rather than a convenient one-day pause by starting the ceasefire at midnight on 6 May instead.
Zelensky has little incentive to agree to yet another fictitious truce
As was expected in Kyiv, Putin ignored Zelensky’s offer. In the past two days, he has bombarded Ukraine with missile and drone strikes that have killed at least 40 civilians across the country. Families in Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region were forced to collect severed limbs from the streets after three Russian 250kg bombs struck the city centre, while a security guard was killed in the city of Sumy when two Russian drones hit a kindergarten. In response to these attacks and to Moscow’s refusal to commit to a genuine ceasefire, Zelensky said Ukraine will continue its ‘long-range sanctions’ by picking targets deep inside Russia for strikes in the coming days.
The Ukrainian government no longer sees any value in observing Russia’s hollow ceasefire proposals – whether for Victory Day or any other symbolic occasion. Last spring, when faint hopes lingered that the US might support Ukraine’s efforts to end the war, Zelensky had good political reason to play along with the Kremlin’s performative truces. Had Ukrainian drones struck Red Square at the time, Donald Trump’s administration would have accused Zelensky of being a warmongerer who was unwilling to pursue peace.
Today, Zelensky has little incentive to agree to yet another fictitious truce. Russia has been bombing Kyiv for more than four years and will continue to do so. Ukrainian soldiers have been and will continue to be killed during every sham ceasefire Putin has announced since 2022 (or, if we are being precise, since 2014). Following the latest Russian atrocities this week, neither Zelensky’s team nor ordinary Ukrainians are likely to care if they are criticised for rejecting Putin’s disingenuous offers. Putin’s overtures are all sound and fake diplomacy, signifying nothing.
The Russian President knows the spectacle doesn’t impress Ukraine but may still impress Trump. That’s why, in a phone call last week, he sought the US President’s backing for a ceasefire this weekend. Putin no doubt hoped Trump would pressure Zelensky to agree – but he is bogged down in the war with Iran. Indeed, the era when Trump could force Zelensky into anything has long passed: Kyiv no longer pays attention to the futile barbs flying in its direction from the White House. These have no impact whatsoever on the war, unlike the Ukrainian drones striking 1,000 miles deep into Russia.
Putin’s military might is now so shattered by the fifth year of war that his Victory Day show – once a symbol of Russia’s global power – is a shadow of its former glory. It will proceed without heavy military equipment, missile systems or Russian troops for the first time in two decades as they continue to be wasted on the Ukrainian frontline. How pathetic, indeed, that he has essentially been forced to beg for a truce so that Ukrainian drones do not spoil his last illusion of success.
Nevertheless, ceasefire or no ceasefire, perhaps Putin will still be able to hold his parade in peace. After all, the likelier targets for Ukrainian drones are Russia’s military and oil infrastructure – now abandoned by the air defence systems that have been sent to shield Putin in Red Square. What a victory for Victory Day – for Putin and Zelensky alike.
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