Andy Burnham has tonight confirmed that he wants to be a candidate in the forthcoming Gorton and Denton byelection. The Greater Manchester mayor submitted an application before the 5pm deadline. Ten officers on Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) will tell Burnham by tomorrow what decision they reach.
‘The Gorton and Denton by-election looks to be a fascinating contest, even if Burnham is blocked.’
In his letter posted online, Burnham wrote that ‘this has been a difficult decision for me to make’ but that he wanted to stand as ‘there is now a direct threat to everything Great Manchester has always been about from a brand of politics which seeks to pit people against each other’. He says his return would be to help government ‘go further and faster’ on improving country and ‘communicate the difference it is making’.
Burnham insists that, if chosen and elected to parliament, he ‘would be there to support the work of the government, not undermine it, and have passed on this assurance to the Prime Minister.’ The reaction of Starmer loyalists can be summed up by the reaction of one Labour MP from the 2024 intake: ‘Yeah, right Andy’.
The NEC now has a key decision to make. The panel is dominated by Starmer’s allies, meaning any decision will be interpreted, rightly or wrongly, as the wishes of No. 10. Should Burnham be blocked then the Labour leadership would face an almighty backlash. If he is allowed to stand, many on the Labour benches would regard him as the next leader-in-waiting after the likely disaster of this May’s local elections.
The Gorton and Denton by-election looks to be a fascinating contest, even if Burnham is blocked. It looks likely to be held in March – though official sources insist that no decision will be made until the writ has been moved. The Greens and Reform finished within a few hundred votes of each other in second and third here in 2024. Both will wait to see what happens with Burnham before making their own selections for the seat. ‘Resign as MP, become mayor, return as MP, topple PM and become PM’, said one Reform wag. ‘Seems Burnham has taken a play straight from the Boris playbook.’
There have been bullish briefings by senior figures in Reform that they can win this seat, regardless of whether Burnham stands. Yet given the mayor’s extraordinary popularity – he won his third election with 63 per cent in 2024 – wiser heads are keen to dampen down the speculation. Talk too of Zack Polanski, the Green leader, standing in his native Manchester seems overblown. Given he himself has previously said he would happily work with Burnham, but not Starmer, he would face criticism for splitting the left vote.
One telling factor about the current mood in the party ahead of the vote is what potential rival candidates and other Labour big beasts are saying about Burnham. By fortuitous chance, it is the Fabian Society annual conference today. The likes of Sadiq Khan, Lucy Powell and Ed Miliband have all said there that they want him to have the chance to stand. Wes Streeting meanwhile said it was a decision for the ‘party not the cabinet’ – but criticised the ‘disgraceful’ anti-Burnham briefing of recent days.
Among allies of the Prime Minister, there is a sense of grim determination about the whole affair. ‘He’s not bottled it’, said one of Burnham, begrudgingly, ‘but that won’t stop us.’ Given how closely Labour MPs are watching this by-election, the next 24 hours could well decide the fate of the PM and who comes next.
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