Yuri Felshtinsky

For the past month, Russian soldiers have been gathering in Belarus. Thousands of conscripts are assembling. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia's war effort goes from bad to worse: Kyiv's forces are continuing to advance in Kherson. Does Putin think the build-up of forces in Belarus can help him turn the tide in his war? So far, Belarus’s involvement has been largely passive. The country's dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko is allowing Russia to pelt Ukraine with missiles from behind its borders. Minsk also provided crucial safe passage to troops attacking the country from the north in February. But, for the most part, it has done its best to try and stay out of the war while attempting to avoid angering Putin. Now there are signs that things might be changing.

Ukraine appears to be faring well in its fight against Russia. Explosions have rocked a Russian military base in Crimea and the country's president Volodymyr Zelensky is confidently stating that the war must end with the liberation of Crimea. Aid is also pouring in from the West. But Ukraine has been here before – and Putin's Russia could, once again, be preparing to up the ante. Any talk of Ukraine's triumph looks dangerously premature – particularly as we approach the month of September. In the summer of 2014, Ukraine was managing to fend off Russian advances and making significant gains. Then, at the end of August, everything changed.