Yossi Melman

The final results of Israel’s election will not be determined until Friday, when the ballots cast by military personnel are counted. However, the exit polls released last night at 8 p.m. London time point to a political deadlock that will make it extremely difficult to form a government, let alone a stable one. In any case, even the final results will not change the reality that Israel has never been more divided, fractured, and polarised. Amid all this uncertainty, four conclusion are clear. A long and exhausting period of political negotiations lies ahead. Until a new government is formed, Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister First, voter turnout reached 77.7 per cent, the highest since 1999.

Until recently, the Israeli right regarded US President Donald Trump as its greatest ally. He was often described in quasi-religious terms – as a saviour, even a messiah sent to rescue Israel from international pressure and the constraints imposed by previous American administrations. According to several American media reports, Trump told Netanyahu: ‘You’re fucking crazy’ and ‘All the Jews are sick of you.’ That admiration stemmed from Trump’s unwavering support during his first term. He moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and adopted Netanyahu’s position that Washington should withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran negotiated in 2015 under president Barack Obama.

Denials, contradictions, inflammatory statements and exaggerations have for years characterised the conduct of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. It is therefore difficult to determine who, this time, is closer to the truth in the dispute that has developed between the two countries regarding attacks on Iran’s energy facilities. It appears that Israel’s political and military leadership believe that Trump was angry, but is playing a double game – and using Israel as part of his good cop, bad cop routine Twice during the war, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has attacked Iran’s energy infrastructure. The first time was on the night of 6 March when about 30 fuel storage facilities in and around Tehran were struck.

The hopes of the United States and Israel to bring about quick regime change in Tehran – whether through millions of Iranians taking to the streets or through an internal coup by moderate elements within the Revolutionary Guards – have been disappointed. Attention therefore has increasingly turned to another possibility: organising an uprising of Iran’s ethnic minorities, led by the Kurds, against the rule of the ayatollahs. According to various reports, these groups have received training and logistical support from intelligence agencies including the CIA and Mossad Although more than half of Iran’s population consists of Persian Shiites, the country is a mosaic of roughly ten ethnic minorities.

For years, there was a broad consensus in Israel that there was no benefit to reintroducing the death penalty. But now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is reportedly considering supporting a bill which would bring back capital punishment for convicted terrorists. The bill, which has passed its first reading in the Knesset, would introduce the death penalty for those who murder Jews – specifically, Palestinian terrorists. It would not apply to Jews who commit acts of terrorism and murder Palestinians. And it would not apply if Israeli Arabs, who are full citizens, are murdered.

Few political assassinations of a political leader have fundamentally and dramatically altered the course of a nation. American democracy, for instance, endured the assassination of Abraham Lincoln in 1865, and black Americans continued to enjoy their hard-won freedom. About a century later, the murder of President John F. Kennedy did not halt the legislative process that secured civil rights for African Americans. The most consequential political assassination in modern history was that of the Austro-Hungarian heir to the throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, in Sarajevo in June 1914. His death at the hands of Serbian nationalist revolutionaries served as the spark that ignited the first world war.

The refusal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to attend the Sharm el-Sheikh peace summit this week has cast a long shadow over his future – both at home and abroad. After President Donald Trump landed earlier that day at Ben Gurion Airport – at the very moment Israeli hostages began to be released – he invited Netanyahu to ride with him in ‘the Beast’, the US presidential limousine, on the way to address the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. During the 30-minute drive, Trump personally urged Netanyahu to accompany him to the summit. Netanyahu, seeking formal protocol, requested an official invitation. Within minutes, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi telephoned the Israeli prime minister. On the spot, Netanyahu accepted the invitation.