Tom Mludzinski

George Osborne’s battle to become Conservative leader may well be tougher than the battle he faces from the Labour opposition. The Chancellor delivers his eighth Budget tomorrow with only 31 percent of Britons believing he has done a good job as Chancellor. The backdrop for his set-piece speech is perhaps more troubling: only 26 percent say their personal finances are better off than last year and 31 percent think the economy has improved. And yet, despite this, Osborne and Cameron have a 15 point lead over Labour’s team on economic trust. While Osborne has received many plaudits for moving to the political centre ground after May last year, he has seen only small benefit so far.

We can all agree that the 2015 General Election was not the pollsters’ finest moment. While final polls from ComRes and one other firm put all the parties within the margin of error, we all consistently overestimated Labour and underestimated the Conservatives. Yet despite this Election, political polling in the UK has a strong record – certainly a lot better than, say, government economic forecasts. The industry has reacted to the election by openly addressing its failings and working hard to correct them. As well as the independent review, most polling firms are conducting their own internal reviews. The freedom to do so is fundamental to the success of the industry.

The economy has recovered, and is steadily growing. That much is now clear. It has long been assumed that this will help the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes. The logic goes that, having steered the country through difficult economic times, a grateful public will come out in their droves to thank them for it. But politics is never that simple, and the public are rarely so willing to give credit to politicians. While it may seem perverse to suggest that economic growth is harming the Tories’ electoral chances, continuing good news about the economy is making it less of an electoral issue. Voters are beginning to ask: ‘what next?’ David Cameron and the Conservatives are experiencing a voteless recovery.

The European election creeps closer and the smart money has switched from Labour to Ukip topping the poll. A Labour win would be spectacular in its own right as it would probably require a doubling of their 2009 vote share. I confess there was an intake of breath in the ComRes office when our ITV News poll results were in showing an 11-point Ukip lead over Labour. But the naysayers were confounded by a second poll released on the same day showing a nine-point Ukip lead. The ramifications of a party with no Westminster MPs topping a popular ballot within a year of a General Election puts us into new territory.