The Spectator

Wild weather Sir: Weather and climate science is not an emotional or political issue — even though emotions and politics run high around it, as illustrated in Rupert Darwall’s article (‘Bad weather’, 13 July). However, it is important that opinions are rooted in evidence, and the article contains numerous errors and misrepresentations about the Met Office and its science. Here are a couple of points. The assertion of the Met Office’s ‘forecast failure’ is just wrong. The Met Office is beating all of its forecast accuracy targets. We are consistently recognised by the World Meteorological Organization as one of the top two most accurate operational forecasters in the world.

Running scared Three participants were gored at the Pamplona bull run. The event has reputation for danger, but how risky is it? —Since 1910, 15 deaths have been recorded, the last in 2009. Five of the deaths have been since 1980. — Counting of the participants began only 2011, when 20,500 people were recorded as taking part in the eight bull runnings of that year. If this is typical it suggests a mortality rate of about one in 140,000. — This compares well with another mass outdoor event: the London marathon. Since 1981, there have been eight deaths during or immediately after the marathon. Over 32 years the number of participants has grown from 6,500 to 32,000, suggesting a mortality rate of approximately one in 67,000, or about twice that of the bull run.