Stephen Daisley

After coasting his way to No. 10, Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership has got off to a pretty cursed start. Some of this wasn’t his fault, such as the Southport riots, and some has come from enacting policies that, while controversial, represent rational political choices, such as means-testing the winter fuel payment and early release of prisoners. But alongside these there has been a gradual piling up of missteps, miscalculations and unforced errors. The most headline-grabbing have involved the Prime Minister, his wife and the running of Downing Street. Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership has got off to a pretty cursed start The last five years of Tory government weren’t the only political gifts Sir Keir has been handed.

The question of whether to scrap winter fuel payments to all but the poorest retirees is a very British debate, in that it’s any sort of debate at all. Rachel Reeves’s reforms are estimated to save £1.3 billion this year and £1.5 billion in subsequent years. That’s not nothing but, for a sense of scale, it’s equivalent to half the devolved Welsh government’s annual climate change budget. Meanwhile, the UK has a fiscal deficit of £120 billion and the Treasury is borrowing £1,780 per capita to meet public expenditure priorities. Government borrowing is at its fourth-highest level since 1993. Public sector net debt stands at 99.4 per cent of GDP, a level last seen in the early 1960s.

The SNP hasn’t wanted for its woes lately but now there is fresh trouble on the way. Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, tells the BBC it is ‘unlikely’ that her party will vote for the next Scottish government budget after the Nationalists unveiled £500 million in cuts aimed at balancing Holyrood’s books. Many of the services reduced or scrapped in SNP finance minister Shona Robison’s announcement last week were originally put in place by the Greens when they were in coalition between 2021 and 2024. Humza Yousaf’s decision in April to end the governing pact brought a vote of no confidence and the announcement of his resignation four days later.

The Scottish Conservative leadership election is now Russell Findlay’s to lose. The West Scotland MSP has secured three big endorsements: former Scottish Secretaries Lord Forsyth and David Mundell, and shadow Scottish Secretary John Lamont. It means all five Scottish Tory MPs support his campaign, alongside 12 MSPs, two council leaders and leading party donors Alasdair Locke, Alan Massie and Robert Kilgour. Right-winger Forsyth has an op-ed in today’s Scottish Mail on Sunday hailing Findlay’s ‘courage, competence, conviction and compassion’ and predicting that his leadership would see the Tories shift focus to ‘the real day-to-day concerns of every voter’.

The 1997 Christmas special of The Mrs Merton Show probably doesn’t feature in many people’s formative political memories, but it remains with me more than a quarter-century later. Caroline Aherne, as the bitchy old biddy who made celebrities squirm, turned her smiling-assassin interview style on Edwina Currie, there to flog a book. After introducing her guest as ‘the female Margaret Thatcher’ and asking to check the back of her head for a 666 tattoo, Aherne invited Horace Mendelsohn, a Stockport pensioner and Mrs Merton regular, down onto the sofa. The old boy proceeded to harangue the ex-minister on her party’s record in office before the two sparred over the new Labour government’s pledge to cut NHS waiting lists.

Something interesting is happening in the Scottish Conservative leadership election, and while I appreciate you might be sceptical about the juxtaposition of ‘interesting’ and ‘Scottish Conservative’, there is a certain dynamic at play. Unlike the race for UK Tory leader, the contest is not between left and right, for there isn’t really a right to speak of in the Scottish Tory party. Nor is it a battle between reform and the status quo, for all three candidates are chirping incessantly about ‘change’. The real dynamic is insiders versus outsiders. Russell Findlay is not a central casting Tory I’ve written about this in an essay in the Mail today, but I think it’s worth fleshing out a little further.

Russell Findlay has launched his bid to be the next Scottish Tory leader as the party descends into a civil war over the propriety of the electoral process. The UK Conservative leadership race has thus far been a pretty staid affair. Not so the Scottish party, which is on the hunt for a new figurehead now that Douglas Ross is returning to the backbenches.  That’s not soon enough for some of his colleagues. He was already in the dog house after Aberdeenshire North and Moray East MP David Duguid was deselected by party HQ and his candidacy given to Ross. What’s worse, Duguid, a gentlemanly champion of oil workers and the fishing industry, was in hospital recovering from illness at the time.

The Scottish nationalists are aggrieved. What’s new, I hear you ask. Well, a diplomatic row, one which has prompted some decidedly undiplomatic language. The Scottish establishment is worked up after it emerged that Angus Robertson, the Scottish government’s pretendy foreign secretary, met with Daniela Grudsky. Who’s she? Why, Israel’s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom. Their confab took place on 8 August but word has only just got out.  The pair discussed fairly routine and low-level matters like cultural cooperation and renewables. To hear the howls from politicos and activists, you’d think Robertson leapt into a tank and rolled into Gaza.

Britain’s antisemitism problem continues to grow. A report from the Community Security Trust (CST), a charity that monitors racist attacks and abuse against British Jews, documents 1,978 incidents in the first six months of 2024. That is the highest figure ever recorded for the first half of any year and a 105 per cent increase on the same period in 2023. It is no coincidence that this comes after the October 7 attack, in which Palestinian terrorists invaded Israel, killed 1,200 people, raped women and took 250 hostages. As the CST noted in a previous report, October 7 occasioned an outbreak of antisemitic activity in the UK long before any Israeli military response was under way.

With just 24 hours until nominations open in the Scottish Conservative leadership contest, Murdo Fraser has stuck his hand up. That makes six contenders so far to replace outgoing leader Douglas Ross. Fraser has stood for the post before, in 2011, but lost out to Ruth Davidson. Perhaps the pivotal reason for Fraser’s defeat was his radical proposal to scrap the Scottish Tories and set up a new centre-right party separate from the UK Tories but sitting alongside them in government and opposition. The sort of long-running coalition seen between the CSU and the CDU in Germany or the National Party and the Liberals in Australia.

The slaughter of 12 children on an Israeli soccer pitch was awful, of course, but it’s important not to overreact to these things. That is the takeaway from the Majdal Shams attack for United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. Via his spokesperson, Guterres condemned the killings but called for ‘maximum restraint’ to avoid ‘any further escalation’ and urged all parties to ‘recommit to the full implementation of Security Council resolution 1701’ and ‘a cessation of hostilities’. Wise words indeed, and I’m sure we all hope that Hezbollah will heed them. It was the Lebanon-based Islamist organisation that carried out the attack using an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket. It’s fair to say dropping 110lbs of explosives on children shows only minimum restraint.

Foreign policy will have been low on Donald Trump’s list of considerations when deciding to anoint JD Vance as his running mate. The Ohio senator, a former detractor turned loyalist of the Republican nominee, is now close with Team Trump, and Team Trump rewards loyalty above all else. Vance is also a populist and speaks to the very voters (white, non-graduate, rust belt) Trump must attract if he is to return to the Oval Office. Vance’s relationship with Trumpism has been a complicated one but his selection can be seen as a legacy pick that consolidates the Maga agenda’s hold on the Republican party for several more election cycles.

Since its launch in Scotland in 2014, the National newspaper has made a name for itself for several reasons, none of them particularly good. It is not merely partisan in the way many British newspapers are, strongly supportive of one party and editorialising thunderously from the front page through to the opinion pages. At the height of Nicola Sturgeon’s premiership, the National was closer to a hymnal such was the reverence with which the SNP leader, her government and its policies were recorded. Back then, it was hard to distinguish the paper’s news articles from SNP press releases, except that press releases were slightly less sycophantic. And less Photoshopped, since for the first few years of its existence the paper was known for its unique splashes.

One of the defining themes of the new government will be devolution. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner’s plan, according to the Labour manifesto, is to ‘transfer power out of Westminster, and into our communities.’ It’s a signal of the priority they place on these reforms that the Prime Minister and his deputy hosted English regional mayors at Number 10 this morning to discuss how this power transfer will take place.  The new government should be holding out central government as the mechanism for delivering the changes it has promised The manifesto pledged to ‘deepen’ devolution settlements for combined authorities while ‘encouraging’ councils to merge and assume additional powers.

Scottish Labour has won 37 of the 57 seats north of the border, an increase of 36 on the 2019 result. This is the party’s best showing in Scotland since 2010 and comes nine years after losing all but one of their seats to the SNP. Labour will be sending its most impressive crop of Scottish MPs to Westminster in a generation. Leading the pack is Douglas Alexander, the new MP for Lothian East. A protege of Gordon Brown, he was MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire South from 1997 to 2015, serving as transport and later Scottish secretary under Tony Blair and international development secretary under Brown.