Steerpike

Steerpike

Steerpike is The Spectator's gossip columnist, serving up the latest tittle tattle from Westminster and beyond. Email tips to steerpike@spectator.co.uk or message @MrSteerpike

Six Brits who had a bad election night

From our UK edition

So Donald Trump is heading for the White House once again. It's a result that has stunned much of the British commentariat, many of whom fawned over Kamala Harris when she was unveiled as Joe Biden's successor. Yet, just like in 2016, Harris could not live up to her cheerleaders' hype. With both Keir Starmer and David Lammy now forced to issue statements expressing their delight at working with 'the Donald', Mr S rounds up the usual suspects who had a particularly bad election night... Carol Vorderman Once the nation's sweetheart as the beloved star of Countdown, poor old Vorders seems to have gone off the deep end in recent years.

Watch: Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell baffled by Trump’s victory

From our UK edition

Donald Trump is on course to win the US election – and it's safe to say that Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell aren't thrilled about the news. On a livestream of their Rest is Politics podcast, Stewart – who earlier this week said he hadn't 'changed my mind on Kamala Harris winning comfortably' – struggled to process the news that the US election was far closer than he may have hoped. Stewart suggested that Trump's success in winning the two key swing states of North Carolina and Georgia was difficult to comprehend given how good the Democrats' ground game was during the campaign: 'When a result happens, you rewrite history. If she (Kamala Harris) was currently winning, you'd have a very good answer for why she was winning. Abortion would be number one.

New York Times ‘Needle’ leans Trump

From our UK edition

Over the past half hour, the famous New York Times ‘Needle’ has moved out of the ‘toss-up’ range, and into the ‘Trump range’. As of 2.47 a.m. UK time, the Grey Lady gives Donald Trump a 69 per cent chance of returning to the White House. The model estimates Trump will get 286 Electoral College votes (he needs 270), whereas Harris will get 252. The ‘Needle’, according to the NYT, is the product of ‘nearly 100 Times journalists, engineers, statisticians, data experts and researchers’. The paper says: ‘As more votes come in, the Needle becomes more “confident” in the final outcome.’ It’s still pretty early, as results go. Counting in Pennsylvania, perhaps the key swing state, could go on and on.

Who do Spectator readers think will win the US election?

From our UK edition

With polls open across the United States a new President is about to be elected. But who is it going to be? Steerpike has already taken a look at the betting markets who have Trump down as the winner. But do Spectator readers agree? For the past fortnight Mr S has been asking new subscribers to guess who will win the US election and the results are in! The winning guessers receive a cash prize so there was added incentive to tell Steerpike who they really think will win and not just who they'd like to win. It was a tight run thing with Speccie voters breaking neck and neck until the final day of the poll. But with voting closing Trump has taken a slight lead and wins by 55 per cent to Kamala's 45. Not long to go until we find out if Spectator readers will be proved right.

Five of Labour’s worst Trump attacks

From our UK edition

The countdown is on, with just days left until the result of the US presidential election is announced. With pollsters across the world undecided about the likely outcome, Sir Keir's Starmer's government is trying to hedge its bets. Health Secretary Wes Streeting has insisted on the airwaves today that 'there will be a really good working relationship' between the Labour lot and Donald Trump if the former president emerges victorious – despite hordes of Labour volunteers travelling stateside to canvas for Kamala. But is there too much water under the bridge to repair relations?

Farage: Reform membership has surged since Badenoch win

From our UK edition

At long last, the Tory leadership race concluded at the weekend after Kemi Badenoch was crowned victor on Saturday. But while the Conservatives finally have some semblance of stability with their newly-appointed leader and shadow cabinet, it's not all good news for the blues. Nigel Farage has now claimed that since Badenoch's weekend win, his party have seen a surge in membership figures. How very curious... Quizzed on LBC today about whether Reform has seen a boost in sign-ups, Farage insisted: Seeing it already. We’ve gone through 95,000 members this morning. So we’ve gone up 1,500 in the last three or four days. And these are Conservatives who are hanging on to see whether the party could change direction. For us as a party, it’s very good news.

Gamblers are putting their money on a Trump triumph

From our UK edition

It’s polling day across the pond and Steerpike is keen to have a flutter. Opinion polling in the US election suggests the safe money is on Kamala Harris, but his fellow gamblers seem to be telling a different story. Data analysed by Mr S’s friends in the Speccies’ data dungeon shows money is pouring in behind The Donald. Trump has a nearly two thirds chance of returning to the White House in January, according to an analysis of implied probabilities. Do the punters know something the pundits don’t?

Scots revealed to be biggest Trump fans in western Europe

From our UK edition

In a rather surprising development, it transpires that Scottish people are Donald Trump's biggest fans in Europe. A Norstat poll for the Times has revealed that support for the US presidential candidate is higher north of the border than in the rest of the UK – and indeed western Europe. Who'd have thought it, eh? According to the survey, a quarter of Scottish adults back the former president for the win this week – while, of the rest of the country, just 16 per cent would throw their weight behind the ex-businessman. Italy is closest behind the Scots in terms of Trump hype, with 24 per cent of Italians hoping the Republican candidate sees victory.

Guardian removes Israeli whisky reference

From our UK edition

Well, well, well. It seems that the Guardian, the self-proclaimed bastion of 'clarity and imagination', has been acting rather censoriously of late. It transpires that, in a column navigating the world's great whiskies by wine critic Henry Jeffreys, a reference to an Israeli single malt whisky was first removed from the print copy – before subsequently being deleted from the online version. How very curious. Taking to Twitter to point out the baffling omission, Jeffreys posted a screenshot showing which clearly showed his reference to Israel's M&H beverage. 'Even so, world whisky isn't going away any time soon,' the wine critic had written. 'The best offer something unique: Israel's M&H, for example, ages its whisky in old pomegranate wine casks in the heat of the Dead Sea.

Watch: Home Secretary flounders over small boats

From our UK edition

Sir Keir Starmer's Labour lot are desperate to get the press and public talking about anything but the Budget this week – and so the issue of Channel crossings is where the Prime Minister is focusing his attention today. Yvette Cooper was quizzed on the airwaves this morning ahead of the PM's speech to Interpol's general assembly in Glasgow over Labour's small boat plans – but the Home Secretary seemed a little uncomfortable on the specifics... Grilled on BBC Breakfast, Cooper was asked when Labour expects to see a drop in the number of migrants crossing the Channel. 'We obviously want to make progress as far and as fast as possible,' the Home Secretary started, adding: 'We know of course it does take time to get the investigators in place.

Southport suspect: A timeline of what was said and when 

From our UK edition

Three months after the Southport attack in July, suspect Axel Rudakubana has been charged with two new fresh offences. With his trial set to go ahead in January, there has been much comment in Westminster as to when the authorities were first informed. To try and make sense of the case, Steerpike has laid out a timeline of events – from the day of the horrific attack up until the latest charges were announced. Monday 29 July: Around noon, reports emerged that a knifeman had entered a Southport dance class and attacked the children present. Tragically three young girls are killed, with others injured before Merseyside Police detain the attacker.

Michael Caine turns on Labour’s taxes

From our UK edition

Taxes, thousands of ‘em! In her bid to alienate the bulk of the British electorate, it seems that Rachel Reeves can add another to her enemies’ list: film legend Sir Michael Caine. The Zulu star – a true working-class talent made good – used an interview this weekend to send a warning about the Budget changes unveiled on Wednesday. Caine, 91, famously left Britain in the late 1970s because of punitively high taxes under Jim Callaghan’s Labour government that peaked at 92 per cent. And he now warns about the same thing potentially happening again. Caine raised the spectre of multi-billion-pound tax rises being seen as a ‘punishment for success’, telling the Sunday Times: Rich people can move their money about, and they do, especially nowadays.

What will Robert Jenrick do next?

From our UK edition

Poor old Robert Jenrick. He has spent eleven gruelling months touring associations, existing on a diet of Ozempic and rubber-chicken, only to lose to Kemi Badenoch by a double-digit margin on Saturday. Badenoch may yet offer Jenrick a role in her shadow cabinet. But if she doesn't – or if Jenrick politely declines any such offer – the question then becomes what will he do next? Prior to entering politics, one career that Jenrick did try his hand at was journalism. Mr S has done some digging and it turns out that the Newark MP actually has something of a flair for words. A history student of St John's College, Cambridge, Jenrick served as News Editor for the famous student newspaper Varsity. Past contributors include the likes of Charles III, Stephen Hawking and, er, Andy Burnham.

Will Dawn Butler lose the whip?

From our UK edition

With his super-majority in the Commons, Keir Starmer isn't afraid of losing the odd MP or two. Back in July he was was willing to remove the whip off seven of his colleagues after they had the effrontery to dare vote against lifting the two-child benefit cap. So the case of Dawn Butler – the gaffe-machine otherwise known as the Honourable Member for Brent East – offers a useful test case for how seriously Sir Keir takes matters of discipline. Butler yesterday shared a social media post accusing Kemi Badenoch of representing 'white supremacy in blackface' and suggesting her election amounted to a 'victory for racism'. It also called the new opposition leader 'the most prominent member of white supremacy’s collaborator class'.

Labour’s embarrassing Badenoch blunder

From our UK edition

So Kemi Badenoch is the new leader of the opposition. How best should Labour respond? One person who has shown the perfect example of what not to do is Dawn Butler, the gaffe machine otherwise known as the Honourable Member for Brent East. Shortly before the result was announced she shared a post on Twitter/X accusing Kemi Badenoch of representing ‘white supremacy in blackface’ and suggesting it amounted to a ‘victory for racism.’ Work that one out. The post has subsequently been removed from Butler’s profile. So much for a new Dawn eh? Next up, it was the turn of Zarah Sultana - Coventry’s answer to Citizen Smith. The teenage Trotskyite declared that ‘her election marks a shift to the far-right.

Revealed: Tory membership falls by almost a quarter in two years

From our UK edition

Will the last person to leave the Tory party please turn out the lights? After an exodus of Conservative MPs from their jobs before the election (75 of them decided to quit rather than contest) we found out at today’s leadership announcement, courtesy of Bob Blackman, chair of the 1922 Committee, that members have bolted from the party too. The Tories don’t like to release their official membership numbers, but Blackman, just before announcing the results, said that the ‘total number of eligible electors’ (really meaning members) was 131,680. Now, if Mr Steerpike’s memory serves him correctly, in the 2022 run-off between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, there were allegedly 172,437 ‘eligible electors’.

Truss blasts ‘dishonest’ Sunak on his last day

From our UK edition

Happy Tory leadership results day! Much like teenagers collecting their A-levels, there will be plenty of tears, cheers and multiple beers, as one of either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick seizes the crown. But one person who might not be smiling this morning is Rishi Sunak, whose final morning as Conservative leader has been overshadowed by a no-holds-barred assault by his predecessor.  In today’s Daily Mail, a seething Liz Truss uses a 2,000-word article to eviscerate the man who replaced her as prime minister. Truss claims Sunak was ‘complicit in amplifying Labour’s lies and spreading smears about me and my premiership’.

Tories overtake Labour in Sunak’s final poll

From our UK edition

It’s Rishi Sunak’s final week as Tory leader, but should he be asked to carry on? On Wednesday he charmed the Commons at PMQs before stealing Rachel Reeves’s thunder with a virtuoso Budget speech. And now, in the final poll of his leadership, it transpires that the Conservatives have, at long last, overtaken Labour in the polls. Autumn election anyone? The BMG research poll, which was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday in the immediate aftermath of the Budget, found the Tories ahead in the polls for the first time since the partygate scandal began in December 2021. Asked how they would vote if a fresh general election were held now, 29 per cent of respondents said they would back the Conservatives with 28 per cent opting for Labour.