Steerpike

All is not well in the Labour party. While Sir Keir Starmer's government fends off questions about the state of the economy and its worsening poll performance, things aren't looking much better north of the border. New Scottish voting data has dropped this morning – and Anas Sarwar's Scottish Labour lot have much to be worried about… Less than a quarter of Scots say they would use their constituency vote to back Labour in the 2026 Holyrood election, while barely a fifth of the population would vote for Sarwar's party on the regional list.

The new year is off to a bad start for Kemi Badenoch’s Tories. The latest update to The Spectator data hub’s poll tracker shows that – on average – Reform have just overtaken the Conservatives to become the second-placed party in British politics. As Steerpike reported this morning, YouGov’s first Westminster voting intention poll since the July election revealed that, while support for Starmer’s army has dropped nine points since polling day, Nigel Farage’s Reform has seen support rise by ten points. Combine that with the Tories dropping two points, and The Spectator poll tracker – which looks at the average of all political polling – puts Reform in second place on 24 per cent of the vote.

Another day, another Labour drama. Rachel Reeves has returned from her weekend China trip to a rather uncomfortable atmosphere back home after last week's bond market turmoil – with the Labour lot facing surging borrowing costs while Whitehall departments fear further spending cuts. So perhaps it's not all that surprising that the question of how long Reeves can hold onto her job keeps cropping up… Taking questions from journalists after his speech on AI this morning, Sir Keir Starmer got the Westminster rumour mill running after he refused to confirm whether Reeves would still be Chancellor of the Exchequer by the next general election.

It’s rare that a world leader knows the name of a junior minister in the British government – let alone is calling for them to be sacked. Yet that is the feat achieved by Tulip Siddiq, No. 4 in Rachel Reeves’ Treasury team. The anti-corruption minister is now facing calls to resign from an unlikely source after the leader of Bangladesh condemned the use of properties gifted to her and her family by its former regime. Muhammad Yunus told the Sunday Times today that the London properties used by Siddiq should be investigated and returned if she is found to have benefited from ‘plain robbery’. Yunus has some authority here: he, after all, is the Nobel peace-prize winning economist who has led the interim government of Bangladesh since last year.

It was just six days ago that the Ivor Caplin, the former Labour MP for Hove, emerged from obscurity to offer his thoughts on Elon Musk. Tony Blair's former defence minister went on GB News last Sunday to offer his thoughts on the Tesla billionaire's tweets about Keir Starmer and Jess Phillips. Such posts, Caplin declared, were 'not acceptable' and 'it would be even more unacceptable if he was to become a serious and senior member' of the Trump administration. Fast forward less than a week and what has old Ivor been up to? It transpires that he was arrested today on suspicion of child sex offences after a sting by paedophile hunters. Footage of Caplin in handcuffs was live-streamed on Facebook and lasted 30 minutes, attracting more than 36,000 views and 3,000 comments.

Well, well, well. It's not been a great start to the year for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour party in Westminster and it seems the Scottish lot north of the border are having a tough time of it too. Leader Anas Sarwar has seen his popularity fall towards the end of 2024 while his SNP rival John Swinney experienced a slight bounce at the end of 2024. Meanwhile combined poll predictions suggest that while the reds are likely to make gains in the 2026 Holyrood election, they have their work cut out if they want to become the party of government. And now questions are being raised about just how well operations are going behind the scenes – after the party's policy team tonight sent a briefing of Scottish Labour's lines for next week to, er, all Holyrood's parliamentary staffers.