Sebastian Payne

In 24 hours, the polling stations in Oldham West and Royton will be open and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party will face its first test at the ballot box. Labour has held the seat for several decades and returned it with a 14,000 majority in May’s general election — so it should be an easy victory. But Corbyn’s leadership appears to dragging the party towards electoral oblivion, while Ukip is chipping away at the formerly solid Labour working-class vote in the North of England. So will the party manage to hold onto the seat? Although the implied odds from bookmakers say Ukip has a 27 per cent chance of winning, there are signs on the ground that all is not well for Labour.

Tomorrow, Labour will try out something curious during the Commons debate on airstrikes in Syria. The opposition side of the debate will be opened by Jeremy Corbyn, who will argue against airstrikes, and later closed by Hilary Benn, who will make the case for them. This may sound all very dynamic and different but there is a simple and important question ordinary folks will be wondering: what is Labour's policy on Syrian airstrikes?

The board of the Conservative party met this afternoon and finally agreed to hold a fully independent investigation into circumstances around the death of RoadTrip activist Elliott Johnson and the allegations of bullying by Mark Clarke. CCHQ has said the investigation will be ‘timely, objective, and comprehensive and independent from the Chairman, CCHQ staff and Party volunteers'. In a statement, the Conservative party said: From tomorrow (1 December), the investigation will be conducted in its entirety by the law firm Clifford Chance LLP. This will include taking witness statements and the collation and review of all written evidence. Clifford Chance LLP will review all interviews already conducted and give those already interviewed the option to be reinterviewed.

John McDonnell spoke at a Momentum curry dinner in Oldham yesterday evening, following a day on the doorstep ahead of Thursday’s by-election. I was lurking at the back and there weren't many other journalists there. The shadow chancellor raised expectations for Labour holding onto the seat, as well as telling Momentum activists that the party has to defeat Ukip, who are seen as the most likely challengers, because it is an ‘evil force within our society’: WATCH 1/3 John McDonnell at Momentum curry dinner: #Ukip is "an evil force within our society" https://t.

The Labour Party has lifted its suspension of Andrew Fisher, a political aide to Jeremy Corbyn, following an investigation into some controversial comments. Prior to his employment with Corbyn, Fisher encouraged voters not to back Labour in Croydon South during May's general election — which would normally result in an expulsion from the party — as well as describing Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell as 'scumbags' and Jack Straw a 'vile git'. After an investigation into these remarks, Labour's National Executive Committee has let Fisher off with a warning. This isn't a surprise, given that NEC member Peter Willsman blogged earlier this week that the Fisher matter would be 'satisfactorily resolved very shortly'.

Is peace about to break out between the two Brexit campaigns, Vote Leave and Leave.EU? Today’s Daily Telegraph reports that Arron Banks, the co-founder of Leave.EU, has written to Matthew Elliot from Vote Leave to suggest they should ‘put all these disagreements to one side’. In the letter, Banks says he is happy to merge with the campaigns without any special terms: ‘In terms of uniting Leave.eu and Vote Leave we have no prior conditions and believe that discussions should now take place that reflect the complementary strengths that the two organisations enjoy. ‘I have a simple view of life and this is my unequivocal message moving forward – if you want to leave the EU, you are on our side. We should be one winning team.

Labour appears to be obsessed with its image on social media. If the general election result taught us anything, it’s that opinions on Twitter and Facebook do not reflect the whole country. Yet at a recent meeting of the party’s National Executive Committee, a decision was taken to create guidelines for its members using social media. Peter Willsman, a member of the NEC, reports on the Grassroots Labour blog: ‘Several NEC members raised the issue of the very harmful leaks to the media and the very damaging way in which social media is being used. It was agreed that we need to develop a Labour Party Code of Conduct in relation to the use of social media.’ So, this is how the New Politics manifests itself.

Jeremy Corbyn’s response to the Paris terrorist attacks has been heavily criticised by the media and it appears the public have similarly negative views. According to a new ComRes poll from the Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday, the Labour leader’s net favourability rating has dropped to –28 — a ten point decrease since the last ComRes poll in mid-September. Notably, 53 per cent of Labour voters view Corbyn favourably, compared to 85 per cent of Conservatives for David Cameron. While George Osborne has a -19 net approval rating and John McDonnell -12, the only politician with a worse score than Corbyn is Vladimir Putin on -41.

Is Jeremy Corbyn a peacenik or is he only interested in badmouthing the West? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Nick Cohen and Freddy Gray discuss the Paris terrorist attacks and the response from British politicians. Was the Labour leader right to shift his position on shoot to kill? What does his association with Stop The War mean for the party? And has Corbyn's response to the events in Paris weakened his leadership? Toby Young and Kemi Badenoch also discuss integration, multiculturalism and whether failures in these areas have played a role in the growth of Isis. How can the West counter the arguments made by Islamists? And to what extent is Isis Islamic?