Sebastian Payne

George Osborne has recruited Richard Davies, The Economist’s economics editor, to replace Rupert Harrison as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Coffee House understands. This position is essentially the Chancellor's top economic adviser, although Thea Rogers has taken on Harrison's chief of staff role. Harrison was one of the most influential figures in the last government and was responsible for creating and implementing much of the government's economic policy — so much so that the Chancellor joked at his leaving party ‘it has been an honour to play a role in the Harrison chancellorship'. He left the Treasury after the general election and has since gone to work in the City.

John McTernan is a Blairite who is not afraid to speak his mind. On this week’s View from 22 podcast, the former Labour special advisor discusses the state of Labour’s leadership contest with Isabel and me. He believes the right of the party is struggling as it failed to put forward a suitably experienced candidate 'because David Miliband left the Commons in the last Parliament’: ‘If David had stayed and served in Ed’s shadow cabinet, David would have been the candidate wouldn’t he? There wouldn’t have really been a contest and I think the vagaries of people’s personal career choices has a big impact on where we are.

Jeremy Corbyn is still on track to be the next Labour leader, according to leaked private polling. Tomorrow’s Daily Mirror reports that this poll puts Corbyn on 42 per cent of the first preference votes, with Yvette Cooper comes in second place on 22.6 per cent, Andy Burnham on 20 and Liz Kendall on 14. Until now, Burnham’s campaign has maintained their man is the only one who could beat Corbyn after the votes have been redistributed. But the Mirror reports that once Kendall has been knocked out and her second preferences sent to other candidates, it is a dead heat with Corbyn on 51 per cent and Cooper on 49 per cent — both figures within the margin of error.

Lord Sewel has announced he is taking a ‘leave of absence’ from the House of Lords. In a statement sent to the Parliamentary authorities this evening, Sewel says he will be stepping out of the limelight until the investigation into his alleged behaviour is complete: ‘I wish to take leave of absence from the House as soon as it can be arranged. I also wish to make clear that in doing so I have no intention of returning to the House in any way until the current investigations have been completed, when in the light of their outcome I will review my long term position. I believe this is compatible with due process.

He once said that the independence referendum was a ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity but Alex Salmond has brushed aside any illusions that the SNP are not desperately hoping, and planning, for a second vote. On the Andrew Marr Show, Salmond said that another referendum is ‘inevitable’ and the only question is of timing — something he said is ‘very much in the hands of Nicola Sturgeon’. Salmond went on to explain three criteria that could be used to show ‘material change in circumstances’ for Scotland and thus trigger another referendum: ‘I can see three issues which are moving things towards a second referendum on a timescale yet to be determined. One is the refusal to deliver The Vow.

The government is upping its attacks on Labour's railways legacy, as the war of words over electrification continues. Coffee House has seen a letter from the Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin to Michael Dugher, his opposite number in Labour, which hits back at claims that the government mislead the public over its delayed plans to electrify railways. In the letter, McLoughlin directly pointing the finger of blame at Labour: ‘I am grateful for your sudden interest in our program of rail enhancement: in the many months between your appoint by Ed Miliband and the General Election you did not ask a single question about electrification, so allow me to set out the background. ‘The Government has the most ambitious programme of rail modernization since the Victorian era.

Is Liz Kendall about to quit the Labour leadership race? The Times reports comments from Labour sources who say Kendall's time is up — given her poor showing in the recent YouGov poll and CLP nominations — and she should drop out for the good of the party. One MP told the paper ‘it may have to be Liz saying, "Look, I’m not going to win"'. Another senior Labour figure said ‘there’s quite a bit of private pressure building up on Liz.' These Labour figures do not appear to understand how the party leader is elected. The preferential Alternative Vote system means that candidates will be knocked one by one out until someone has a majority. In 2010, there were five rounds until Ed Miliband reached 50.65 per cent of the vote.

The YouGov survey might be ‘just one poll’ in a notoriously tricky race to predict, but it has sent shockwaves throughout the Labour party. Tristram Hunt and Tony Blair have been activated to plead with the party to stick to the centre ground, while the other leadership camps are taking differing views on what it means. Andy Burnham’s campaign do not seems too worried and thinks it spells trouble for Yvette Cooper. A source in the Burnham camp says: ‘It shows that Yvette is dead in the water, it’s a two horse race and she’s gone. We are ahead with members, just, and we’ll continue to fight for every vote.

Could Jeremy Corbyn actually win the Labour leadership race? A new poll from The Times/YouGov suggests that he will. The new poll of eligible voters in the leadership contest — party members, registered supporters and affiliated trade unionists — has Corbyn on track to win in the final round of voting with 53 per cent of the vote, with the current bookies' favourite Andy Burnham trailing six points behind on 47 per cent. The left-wing leadership candidate's lead on first preferences is even more jaw-dropping. YouGov has Corbyn on 43 per cent, compared to Burnham on 26, Yvette Cooper on 20 and Liz Kendall on 11. Based on this, Kendall would be knocked out in the first round and her votes redistributed to other candidates.