Sean Rayment

In March, Russia suffered 35,000 casualties in the war in Ukraine. It’s estimated  33,600 of those, an extraordinary 96 percent, were caused by drones. Attacks by drones equipped with bombs, machine guns and even flamethrowers are now responsible for most of the casualties on both sides of the conflict. Therein lies a potential trap for militaries across the globe. It would be a catastrophic mistake to believe that victory can be bought cheaply and quickly with a single technology.  The great lesson of Ukraine is that armies are punished for relying too heavily on one strategy. President Putin made precisely that mistake. He believed Russian vast tank regiments and precision artillery would bring Ukraine to its knees.

Israel has sustained its first casualties since the launch of its cross-border incursion into southern Lebanon. Eight soldiers have been killed in battles with Hezbollah and, tragically, they are unlikely to be the last casualties of this conflict.  Captain Eitan Itzhak Oster, 22, a squad commander in the ‘Egoz’, an elite commando unit specialising in guerrilla warfare, was killed in what was reported to be an ambush by Hezbollah fighters in a village in southern Lebanon. Other Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) personnel killed in clashes with Hezbollah on Wednesday include four members of a commando unit, two soldiers serving with a reconnaissance squad, and another who was part of the engineering corps.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu views the conflict in Gaza as a zero-sum game – with Israel either destroying Hamas or losing the war. Given that is his strategy, the assault on the city of Rafah in the southernmost part of Gaza, where the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) believe up to four battalions of Hamas terrorists are holed-up, makes perfect sense, at least to him. On Saturday, in the face of growing international concern about the forthcoming operation, Netanyahu announced: ‘Those who say that under no circumstances should we enter Rafah are basically saying lose the war, keep Hamas there.’ During the night, Israel began a missile bombardment of the city.

The first and most important principle of war for any military campaign is the selection and maintenance of ‘the aim’. The aim must be clear and unambiguous, so that everyone, from the most senior general to the private soldier, understands what is trying to be achieved. Unfortunately for the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) the aim of the war in Gaza – the annihilation of Hamas – is neither clear, unambiguous nor achievable. Now the IDF – or more accurately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – is facing the very real risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. When Joe Biden, the US president, spoke to Israelis during a brief visit 12 days after the October attacks, he said he and ‘many Americans’ understood Israel’s ‘shock, pain and rage’.

When the last shot is fired in the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the fog of war eventually lifts, the challenge of who will rebuild Gaza will need to be addressed. While such a thought may be difficult for some Israelis to stomach, especially those who lost loved ones in the October 7th Hamas atrocity, the ‘what happens next?’ question demands both an answer and a plan. In his masterful work World Order, the late US statesman and diplomat Henry Kissinger noted that when President Harry S Truman was asked in 1961 what part of his presidency made him most proud, he said: ‘That we totally defeated our enemies and then brought them back into the community of nations.

Somewhere beneath the rambling town of Khan Yunis, Yahya Sinwar, the murderous leader of Hamas in Gaza, is awaiting his fate. The terrorist leader, who orchestrated the October 7th atrocity and the deaths of 1,200 innocent Israelis, knows that his days are numbered. Either the 61-year-old Palestinian will die from the impact of a 500 lb satellite guided Joint Direct Attack Munition bomb exploding above the fetid hole in which he is hiding or his life will end in a hail of bullets fired by Israeli commandos, with orders to kill and not capture the Hamas leader.

Is there a political solution to the Gaza conflict? Earlier this morning, the seven-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas broke down, with the IDF reporting that it had intercepted rocket fire from the Gaza strip. Israel then resumed hostilities, with air strikes in northern and southern Gaza against Hamas. Almost from the moment of its inception, 73-years ago, Israel has been in a state of perpetual war. This is not something of Israel’s own choosing. No other country in the modern era has fought so many wars of national survival against adversaries whose sole ambition was the complete annihilation of  a people.

On Friday a four-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began, as the first hostages taken by Hamas were released by the terrorist group. Under the deal struck, 50 Israeli women and children will be released in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners, who will be freed over the four-day period. Additionally, the Israeli government said the lull in hostilities will be extended for an additional day for every ten more hostages Hamas releases. In theory, the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas could last until all 240 hostages are released. And some may hope that the complex ceasefire arrangements might lead to an extended truce.