Scarlett Maguire

With two weeks until her Budget, Rachel Reeves has received more bad news: unemployment is now at its highest level since the pandemic. With the Chancellor hinting at income tax rises, could this be dangerous for Labour as it increasingly becomes the party of higher earners? Polling suggests the public would lay the blame for tax hikes with Reeves, despite her speech last week. With threats from a resurgent Green party to the left and Reform to the right, is there an obvious path forward for Labour to win back voters? James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Scarlett Maguire. Produced by Megan McElroy and James Lewis.

New voting intention polling today puts Reform neck and neck with Labour. The YouGov/Times poll reveals that support for Starmer’s army has plummeted nine points, with just over a quarter of Brits backing the government – while Nigel Farage’s Reform party has seen its support soar by 10 points. Kemi Badenoch’s Tories have lost two points, while the canvassing of 2,279 adults – carried out between 12–13 January – shows the Lib Dems and the Greens both gained one. Perhaps the most damning news, however, is that only half of those who backed Labour in the 2024 election would vote for them next time. Where is Reform drawing these votes from? Is this polling worse for Labour, or the Tories?

Nigel Farage could well be the big winner in the UK from Donald Trump’s victory across the pond, with the MP for Clacton having a direct line to the most powerful office in the West. But, as Katy Balls argues on Coffee House this morning, he poses a greater threat to Labour than simply his proximity to Donald Trump. Reform UK are beginning the process of building power bases across the UK – starting this weekend in Wales – and the party believes it can take voters from Labour. Meanwhile, the US election has proven the salience of the economy and immigration as election-deciding issues: areas where Reform UK cut through. How can Labour combat an insurgent Reform party? What lessons should Starmer take from the result in the US?

Since the Tories retained Uxbridge in the by-election a fortnight ago by campaigning against Ulez, some Conservative MPs have been questioning whether the party should ditch their climate commitments. Was Uxbridge a one-off? What do British people want? Natasha Feroze speaks to Katy Balls and Scarlett Maguire, director at polling firm JL Partners.