SAGE

Tighter Covid restrictions were being urged by SAGE, the government's committee of scientific advisers. The meeting was held on 8 October, and minutes have just been released. In spite of its calls for greater transparency, the 'worst-case scenario' it refers to remains confidential. The Spectator has published the July 30 draft of this scenario this week. Summary Incidence and prevalence across the UK continue to increase, and data show clear increases in hospital and ICU admissions, particularly in the North of England. In England the number of infections and hospital admissions is exceeding the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario (RWCS) planning levels at this time.

In pandemics, UK governments plan their response based on an unpublished 'worst-case scenario'. Below, we are publishing Sage's classified report for the winter of 2020. It's intended not as a prediction, but an example of how bad things might get and what HM Government should prepare for. It was published in July 30 and envisaged cases growing in November. Cases started rising in September, so the figures will certainly have been revised. But this shows an example of the thinking behind UK government policy. Its assumption is that restrictions stay in place until March 2021.