Rani Singh

Pranab Mukherjee’s potential as president

From our UK edition

Congress party Pranab Mukherjee's victory in the Indian presidential election this week allowed the party to exhale for a nanosecond amid the gloom of stalled economic reform and political paralysis. As the country watched the pomp and pageantry of the presidential swearing-in today, the tectonic plates of power in India started to shift again. The Indian National Congress Party, the ruling coalition UPA's majority stakeholder, has managed to rewind to 15 years ago. When Sonia Gandhi took on the presidency of the near-dead party in 1998, it resuscitated and took power; first in 2004, then 2009. It is now withering. Perhaps if Congress were not so weak, shrewd tactician Mukherjee would not have had the opportunity to take the presidency.

Mukherjee can’t change India’s political paralysis

From our UK edition

The Indian president lives in a Lutyens palace formerly occupied by the country’s viceroys, replete with ballroom, cinema, and Mughal gardens. I’ve been inside to interview the current incumbent, Pratibha Patil. With 360 rooms, it’s a big house for a small person and you can get lost - indeed recently, Patil reportedly did go missing for three hours until located by a team of commandos. The Head of State is somewhat removed from the cut and thrust of Indian politics so presidential candidate Pranab Mukherjee is looking forward to relaxing  there after the election on July 19, 2012.

Washington rules, doesn’t it?

From our UK edition

The News reported yesterday that US diplomats have told PPPP Co-Chair Asif Ali Zardari that they “Will not allow anyone to destroy” their “huge investment” of more than $10 billion in President Musharraf: “Sources said the fact of the matter was that Musharraf was the most unpopular man in Pakistan but he was still the most popular Pakistani in the White House and very popular in New Delhi. Top Indian officials have given many hints to international media before February 18 that they like Musharraf more than anyone else in Pakistan... ...The Bush administration needs Musharraf to stay in power not only for the war against terror but also for implementing a new Kashmir plan before the presidential election in the US later this year.

Legal drama

From our UK edition

Supreme Court Bar Association President, and senior PPPP figure, Aitzaz Ahsan has just finished a second powerful and moving speech to the media in Lahore. It's the first day that press restrictions on him have been lifted since he was placed under house-arrest. He’s demanding the restoration of all deposed judges and calling for “A long march” by the legal community on March 9th, the day that Chief Justice Muhammad Chaudhry was suspended by President Musharraf in 2007, if they’re not released by then. Today, civil society demonstrators calling for the judges to be freed, chanted “Go Musharraf, go!”   The judges issue is a significant one.

The immediate aftermath

From our UK edition

It's curtains for the “King’s Party” – the PML (Q), President Musharraf’s political prop – which has all but lost its power base after key figures were felled in yesterday’s vote.   The PPPP, (the Benazir Pakistan Peoples’ Party adds a P for Parliamentarians to distinguish it from separate Bhutto family member-run factions) has taken the National Assembly seat lead, with 86 announced at the time of reporting, followed by Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N), currently at 65.   Schools and educational institutions remain closed for a second day while all election results are compiled. They await confirmation.

Shock defeats for pro-Musharraf party chiefs

From our UK edition

Staunch Musharraf allies and Pakistan Muslim League (Q) supremos, Party President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussein and former federal Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed both lost their supposedly safe seats. According to reports, former federal minister and former PPP Secretary General Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar has comfortably defeated the PML (Q) Chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussein by at least 13293 votes. Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the former Chief Minister of Punjab, cousin and brother-in-law of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussein, and President of the PML (Q) party in Punjab, has lost too - a huge blow to the pro-Musharraf party and a slap in the face for the three feudal politicians. The news is making top story on bulletins.

Violence & vote-rigging, as results come in

From our UK edition

PML (N) and PPP in front for National assembly; many more results expected Asif Ali Zardari is reported to be in Islamabad tonight for an emergency strategy meeting with Nawaz Sharif and other party leaders amid widespread fears of rigging. Results are coming in, but the picture can still change. The PML (N) and the PPP, formally known as the PPPP (Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians) to differentiate them from other PPP factions, are in front of the pack as far as National Assembly results are concerned. If they hold their joint lead then this will be a dramatic result but, I repeat, the night is still young. Provincially, Balochistan has the pro-Musharraf PML (Q) leading substantially. Sindh, Bhutto heartland, sees the PPPP sweeping the Province as expected.

Riding away with votes

From our UK edition

PML(N) Sindh Province President S.G.A Shah told Coffee House on Sunday that the next Zardari-Sharif meeting for the new  PPP/ PML(N) alliance will be on the 19th February, following on from their lunch last weekend. He emphasised that since neither of them are contesting a seat in this election, neither of them can be Prime Minister right now. (Though a by-election in a couple of months could fix that little problem).The PPP has refused overtures from Washington to join hands with Musharraf and together with the PML(N) has agreed to ask the President to resign. The PPP Co-chair Asif Ali Zardari does not want to do business with the Bush regime, according to the News on Monday, preferring to talk to Democrats about elections, life and the universe.

Polls are closed

From our UK edition

The polls have now closed and counting has begun. There have been shootings in Hyderabad and bomb blasts elsewhere, the latest murder tally for Monday can be viewed on the Geo TV website ; reporters are saying there is an “average number of killings for Pakistan”. Next door, Delhi is in a state of alert as India fears a fallout across the border.   If Musharraf’s PML(Q) party manages to pull off a majority with its chief ally the MQM, there could be widespread agitation by the supporters of the main opposition parties the PPP and the PML(N).

The countdown begins

From our UK edition

Polls open at 8.00am and close at 5.00pm (Pakistan time). Counting starts immediately after that, with first results coming in over the next few hours. The final numbers of seats being fought over on Monday have been adjusted slightly because of a few candidate deaths and also the worrisome tribal area security situation. The number of National Assembly seats being contested has dropped to 269 from 272. Provincial seats are now 570 from 577. With the most seats in the contest, Punjab Province is one to watch. Analysts are not currently able to predict the outcome of what they’re calling a three-way race between the PML(N), the PML(Q), and the PPP.

Polls & death tolls

From our UK edition

The Chief of Army Staff General A.P. Kayani has "expressed satisfaction" over arrangements to maintain law and order for the elections while asking for public co-operation. An army spokesman has announced a deployment at the 8,900 most “sensitive” polling stations around the country. The caretaker Interior Minister told foreign observers that 95 army battalions are in position. It’s business as usual for President Pervez Musharraf who has said, “No irritants to be tolerated in polls” while inaugurating a highway extension on Saturday, and that there is a “ completely peaceful” elections environment.  Observers like John Kerry and the other two American senators monitoring the elections  might check the news.

Water, politicised

From our UK edition

Geo TV is running an evening show in Urdu called “The Great Debate” in which the representatives of the major parties are each given three-minute slots to air their views on an election subject, after which they are each interrogated by a Geo chair before going through to two, more detailed, rounds. Experts are in the audience to challenge the speakers. On Friday 15th February the issue was water. A recent report in the News has some alarming figures, and one study from two years ago estimated that only 20 per cent of the population have access to a clean, safe supply.  Water shortages, the building of dams, and who gets water; these subjects are toys for Pakistani politicians to play with while many Pakistani subjects die of water-borne diseases.

Poll boost for Musharraf’s rivals

From our UK edition

I’ve mentioned before that election polls don’t happen nearly as often in Pakistan as they do in America. Then, like the London buses…. This week the US-based International Republican Institute, which conducted a poll across all four Pakistani provinces over ten days in January 2008, found the PPP leading, with 50% of those sampled saying they would vote for it;  Nawaz Sharif’s PML (N) party achieved 22% of the votes; and the pro-Musharraf PML (Q) trailed in third with 14%. There has been a perception by those in power that Pakistanis can have the wool pulled over their eyes. The poll finds this isn’t true. 79% would feel that rigging had occurred if Musharraf’s PML (Q) party won.

So far, so planned

From our UK edition

I meet with Pakistan’s Deputy High Commissioner to the UK and former High Commissioner to Norway, Abdul Basit. Debonair and sophisticated, he’s a career diplomat from the Foreign Service.  He ponders likely election outcomes. “Most likely it’s going to be a coalition after February 18th  ... a hung parliament, no single party will win. It’s a guessing game as to how it will turn out … things are looking very difficult for Hussain (the President of the PMLQ, the party supporting President Musharraf). The party majority will be reduced substantially. It will be hard for him to retain his numbers. Outgoing governments…those parties traditionally do not do well.” Abdul Basit discusses various scenarios between three main parties.

The supporters and opponents of vote-rigging

From our UK edition

Unlike in, say, American politics, pre-elections polls are bit thin on the ground in Pakistan. The results of one, however, have been published by the Dawn. Conducted during January 2008, the US-based Terror Free Tomorrow poll finds that 70 % of Pakistanis want President Pervez Musharraf to quit, and that the PPP is the most popular party this side of the elections, with 36.7% of poll voters. The PML (N) of Nawaz Sharif follows with 25.3% and the PML (Q) which supports Musharraf comes in with 12%. Dawn’s special correspondent Mohammed Ziauddin comments: “A clean sweep for the PPP at the elections doesn’t fall into the gameplan of Musharraf, London, Brussels and Washington. So they will go along with Musharraf if he rigs and brings in a hung Parliament.

Another day, another bomb

From our UK edition

In the troubled North West Frontier Province of Pakistan, a bomb exploded on Saturday during an election rally, allegedly the work of a suicide bomber. So far, 25 are reported killed and many more injured. With polling day just around the corner, this shows conclusively that Musharraf’s promise to deliver a “peaceful” election was nothing more than a prayer in the wind.  The rally where the bomb went off was organised by the Awami National Party, (ANP) which is strong in the North West Frontier Province. A secular group, it looks for support among the Pashtoun tribals of the area and competes against Islamist coteries. (Ironically, the bomb went off during the ritual recitation of verses from the Koran). It’s going to be ugly.

Moving on from mourning…

From our UK edition

As the mourning period for assassinated former Prime Minister and Pakistan Peoples’ Party leader Benazir Bhutto closes, various leaders from her party have been speaking. Asif Ali Zardari, her husband, is co-chairing with her son Bilawal. Zardari says he is not standing as a candidate in the election. He may have his hopes set on being Prime Minister in the event of a sizeable PPP presence in a post-February 18th government. As the PPP moves onto the campaign trail, Benazir’s image is everywhere. There are photos, banners and numerous tribute songs. Strategists are aware of the impact of the Bhutto name and legacy upon supporters and voters, and continuously allude to the lineage joining Zulfikar -her father who was hung - Benazir, and now her son, Bilawal.

All together now | 8 February 2008

From our UK edition

Condy, Hamid and David holding hands in Afghanistan on Thursday. Friends kissing and making up after naughty President Karzai was unruly. Time to pow-wow, not about the Afghans dying in the freezing cold, but about the NATO forces, recently described as being in a “Strategic stalemate” by a former commander Trouble is brewing at the border where Afghanistan and Pakistan merge into one, ahead of the traditional spring onslaught of militancy. Melting snow brings fresh attacks. The Pakistani Government is creating a large Council or Jirga with village elders to facilitate horse-trading during the election. The Dawn reports that US military advisers are aiding the Pakistanis to double the numbers in their commando force, focussing on the tribal areas.

81 million voters “enabled”

From our UK edition

Pakistani officials keep telling us that all is rosy for the upcoming elections.  The Election Commission of Pakistan, which is overseeing procedure on February 18th, has announced that it will “enable” around 81 million to vote.  While the Punjab province President of the PML (Q) pro-Musharraf party spoke on Tuesday about reforms, which mean that there is “no chance of rigging the elections”. Not everyone’s convinced. Wajid Shamsul Hassan, the PPP’s UK spokesman, wrote a complaining letter which was published in the Guardian on Tuesday, pointing out that only recently “Pakistan was suspended from the Commonwealth for breaking democratic norms.

Will a mellower Musharraf win over the voters?

From our UK edition

If this family interview with Pakistan Television is anything to go by, President Musharraf is doing cuddly. The interview’s mainly in Urdu, but I thought Coffee Housers might like to catch a rare glimpse of Pakistan’s first family at home in Karachi. Speedy synopsis (in English!): the President believes that “Sleeping is a waste of time”. Though a soldier, he’s in touch with his feminine side and likes the arts. He feels Pakistan needs a “softer” image based around heritage, culture and sport rather than guns and violence. He describes being taken to visit endless monuments and museums on foreign visits, so he wants to build something lasting for his nation to be proud of other than ritual showcase mosques.