Peter Hoskin

Will the Redditch by-election force Jacqui Smith’s hand?

From our UK edition

A leadership challenge really picks up steam when Cabinet ministers start coming out in support of it.  Who'll be the first to do so, should Miliband, Straw, Harman et al decide to run?  One good bet might be the senior minister who's most vulnerable to defeat in the next general election - the one who's got the most to lose if Gordon Brown stays in power, and the least to lose by forcing a change.  In this case, that person's got to be Jacqui Smith.  A swing of just 3.4 percent - the lowest "swing value" of anyone in the cabinet - would see her lose her seat at the next election.

Whilst Miliband’s a-plotting…

From our UK edition

...Ed Balls is a-skipping.  Well, not quite - this footage is actually from an event back in May, and it hit YouTube in June.  But it's only just made it up onto the indispensable Play Political.  I wonder if Team Miliband lies behind the discovery...

The Northern Rock redundancies

From our UK edition

Of course, enforced job losses are never a pleasant thing.  But at least Ron Sandler's announcement that 1,300 Northern Rock employees will be made redundant falls short of the 2,000 redundancies that were originally envisaged.  Regardless of the numbers, though, the redundancies represent the next stage of the Government's "rescue package" for the bank - and it's a stage they'll want to sweep under the carpet. Guido - who's been consistently excellent on the Northern Rock fiasco - made the point that the first family to have their home repossessed by the nationalised bank can be "the poster family for this whole incompetent mess".  Much the same stands for the first batch of Northern Rock workers to be made redundant.

Can Labour die?

From our UK edition

An essential article by Iain Martin in today's Telegraph, on a topic that Coffee House will devote more attention to shortly – are Labour on the path to annihilation? On Martin's account, the picture certainly looks bleak: "Endangered in England's largest cities, losers in London, out of power in Scotland and sharing it with the nationalists in Wales, wiped out in the south, on the run in the north-west marginals, under fire in the West Midlands, all but bankrupt and with a collapsing membership: what it to become of Labour? This is how, if they are not careful, parties die. Extinction is never the result of a single event, rather it happens more slowly, over several decades.

Clegg’s pendulum politics

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg's declaration that the Lib Dems will now concentrate on snaring 50 paticularly vulnerable Labour seats at the next election (see video above) is a puzzling one.  Ok, it might - as Guido points out - seal the near-total defeat of Labour, as the Tories and Lib Dems carve up Labour territory between themselves.  But that's assuming Clegg's party actually wins those seats - a very big ask, given how they're currently polling. Instead the potential's there for Clegg's new tactic to further divide the party, and perhaps even weaken their election efforts.  You see, this is the same Nick Clegg who sold the Lib Dems as "tax-cutting" party only a couple of weeks ago - one assumes in an effort to nab votes from the Tories.

The quitting game

From our UK edition

A quick update to my earlier post: according to the Evening Standard, ten ministers are now prepared to quit in protest at Brown's leadership.  Of course, they may not go ahead with it.  But the story still fuels the idea that dissatisfaction with Gordon Brown is hardening, rather than fizzling away over the summer as Downing Street would have hoped.  Apparently, most in Labour now consider a revolt at the beginning of September "highly likely".  It's becoming increasingly difficult to disagree.

When politicians shut themselves away

From our UK edition

What happens when politicians shut themselves away, and stare into an abyss both political and personal? After Bruce Anderson’s revelations about Gordon Brown yesterday, I think we need to know. So I re-watched Robert Altman’s 1984 film Secret Honor last night, looking for a bit of elucidation. Secret Honor gives us a fictionalised, post-Watergate Richard Nixon. He locks himself in a room - not with a computer and the garbled recollection of a Dominic Grieve quote, but with a bottle of scotch and a loaded gun - and delivers his political testimony to a tape recorder.  That's what we get for the next 90 minutes. Stephen yesterday referred to Brown's actions as "more that political paranoia".

An escalation

From our UK edition

Rachel Sylvester's article in today's Times is a perfect summary of the plots threatening the Labour leadership. Two passages jumped out at me: “Civil servants - who can sink or save a politician - have not warmed to Mr Brown. 'People say he's charming in private but it's completely untrue,' an official who has worked closely with him said. 'He's incredibly rude. He doesn't remember names. His e-mails are brusque demands. And his defining characteristic is anger. I've seen him kicking furniture.

The death of a pier

From our UK edition

There's something both sad and compelling about the images of Weston-Super-Mare's Grand Pier in flames.  Of course, we should be extremely thankful that no-one has been injured in the blaze.  But it's hard not to romanticise these quirky and defiant structures, and thereby see other casualties among the ruins.  Nostalgia, innocence, sea air, kiss-me-quick hats and saucy postcards – piers are a uniquely British mix, and a dying breed.  Today their numbers have been cut by one.

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 28 July – 3 August

From our UK edition

Welcome to this week's Wall.  As always, this is your space to write and chat about any topics you want.  Do let us know if there are things you'd like to see us cover on Coffee House.  Or if you'd like to post any photos or videos to the Wall, please e-mail them to me on phoskin @ spectator.co.uk. Photographs: Bobby Jindal with his wife and son (left); Bobby Jindal meeting George Bush (right). Contributed by Verity.

A Coffee House challenge: how can Cameron improve?

From our UK edition

Despite the CCHQ euphoria about Brown's predicament, there's still the occasional bit of news which should give the Tories pause for thought. The latest is a YouGov poll in today's Telegraph; the “first detailed analysis of the public's perception of the Tory leader”. It's a mixed bag for Cameron. The good news is that respondents generally consider him to be likeable and caring. But the less-than-good news is that 39 percent regard him as “somewhat shallow”, and 44 percent think he's “not in touch with ordinary people.” Barring an unforeseeable mishap, catastrophe or tragedy, David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister of this country. That's why it's important he looks at these polls and asks “why?

Put your questions to Chris Grayling

From our UK edition

Chris Grayling has kindly agreed to a Q&A session with Coffee House.  So, post your questions for him in the comments sections below.  And, in a week-or-so's time, we'll pick out the best ten and put them to the shadow work and pensions secretary.  He'll get back to us all a few days later.  And the commenters whose questions are chosen will all win Coffee House t-shirts and copies of the special 180th Anniversary issue of The Spectator.

Cameron throws down the gauntlet

From our UK edition

David Cameron on Sky News this morning:  “I think the PM should have his holiday but then I think we need an election. We need change in this country and that’s how change should come about.

Are the numbers against the would-be leaders?

From our UK edition

In his victory speech a few hours ago, John Mason exclaimed that “this SNP victory is not just a political earthquake, it is off the Richter scale”. It's hard to disagree. After all, overturning a 13,507 majority is impressive stuff, whichever way you slice it. So impressive, in fact, that it can only reinforce the idea that pretty much any Labour seat is now a viable target for opposition parties. Which creates a particularly nasty conundrum for Labour MPs. Ousting Brown will become increasingly attractive, as he leads them towards oblivion in 2010. But many of the names being bandied around to replace him have smaller majorities than that overturned by the SNP last night.

A recount in Glasgow East?

From our UK edition

The Beeb are reporting that there may be a recount in Glasgow East - perhaps a sign that this vote really is extremely close.  It could well be a very long night.  Stay tuned. P.S. How close? Jon Sopel's said that the SNP majority may currently stand at around 354. P.P.S. The word is that certain parties are worried - rightly or wrongly - that votes for Margaret Curran may have been counted for the similarly-named Frances Curran, the SSP candidate.