Peter Hoskin

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

PMQs live blog | 10 December 2008

Welcome to this week's Coffee House PMQs live blog.  What to expect?  Well, as always, there's plenty for the party leaders to say on the economy - particularly in light of Cameron's speech yesterday, and the news today that the economy may have shrunk by 1 percent in the 3 months to November.  I'd be fairly surprised if welfare reform doesn't feature as well. 1205: Here's Gordon.  Alison Seabeck starts: "Businesses and small businesses have welcomed the measures introduced during the downturn..."  A question which lets Brown say "We will take action, [they Tories] would do nothing." 1207: Cameron now. Returns to the theme of a few weeks ago: has the bailout freed up credit for small businesses? Brown slips up.

Peter Hoskin

A Freud’s-eye view

Just to recommend David Freud's comment piece in the Times today.  You'll read few clearer explications of the welfare dependency problem and of the reforms enshrined in today's White Paper.  In spite of Freud's role as a government adviser, he even hints at one of the more malignant Brownies*: the willful shifting of claimants off JobSeekers' Allowance and on to incapacity benefit ("...about 2.6 million still on incapacity benefit. In origin this phenomenon no doubt reflected government massaging of the unemployment figures.")  In terms of potential, at least, the welfare reform plan being announced today is one of the more important political events of the past decade.

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

What’s this about?

The Speaker's set to make a Damian Green-related statement at 15:30 today.  Tim Montgomerie highlights a post by Richard Benyon MP which suggests it may be to do with police access to the Commons server. Stay tuned. UPDATE, 1535: Not much to it.  Martin says that "no access was given, and no access was taken" to the Commons server.

Peter Hoskin

And so back to the economy…

There was much to be impressed about in David Cameron's speech to the LSE earlier.  It contained some fizzy soundbites; made effective attacks on Brown's repsonse to the downturn; and clearly spelt out the dividing lines between the Tories and Labour.  Most of all, though, it said: "We are not the do-nothing party".  Given that the "do-nothing" charge is the key component in Brown's spin war against the Tories, it's an important point for Cameron to make.  And he did so by drawing a distinction between the wrong and the right "exceptional measures" (see this video clip from the Beeb): "I do believe that exceptional times call for exceptional measures - but they've got to be the right exceptional measures.

Peter Hoskin

A second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty for Ireland?

This from the Standard's Paul Waugh: "Premier Brian Cowen will tell the EU summit this week that he wants his country to ratify the treaty by this time next year. Although the words 'second referendum' may not pass his lips, his colleague Europe Minister Dick Roche has just made plain that that is what will happen. Roche says that the treaty can be amended to meet Ireland's fears over neutrality, tax, abortion and its own Commissioner." At best, I'd say this "try and try again" mentality is patronising to those who voted 'No' the first time around. One wonders what will happen if a second referendum delivers a second 'No' verdict.

Peter Hoskin

Putting up barriers to social mobility<br />

Another week, another essential column by Rachel Sylvester; this time on the successes and failures of the Sure Start programme.  Here's the key passage on how the programme could encourage social segregation: "In some cases parents are asked whether they have a garden for their children to play in. The objective is clear - to identify the middle classes. A friend of mine was telephoned by her local Sure Start organiser and asked not to come to baby massage classes any more because she was too posh... ...Of course it's important that Sure Start reaches the people it was originally designed to help. But it would be ironic if the policy designed to reduce social exclusion ended up building up class barriers in another way.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Poll blues for the Tories

There's another post-PBR opinion poll for us to mull over tonight; this time courtesy of The Times / Populus.  The headline figures put the Tories below the 40 percent mark, and have Labour once more closing the gap: Conservatives --- 39 percent (down 2) Labour --- 35 percent (no change) Lib Dems --- 17 percent (up 1) It all seems counterintuitive.  What about the sceptical response to Brown's PBR?  What about the Damian Green affair?  Either this poll is an outlier, or these events - which felt seismic within the Westminster bubble - just haven't registered that much with the public.

Peter Hoskin

Brown gets his way

The Commons have just voted down an attempt to change the remit of the committee being established by Michael Martin to look into the Damian Green affair - and by the slenderest of margins (285-281).  Those four votes mean that the seven-person committee will most likely have a government majority on it; just as Brown wanted.  One suspects it was the Labour whip team wot won it. UPDATE: Harriet Harman's "government majority" version of the committee has been passed (293-270).  Given that the Tories and the Lib Dems are now boycotting it, will anyone actually give any regard to its findings?  Will be interesting to see if this rebounds on Brown & Co. P.S. Andrew Sparrow's coverage of all this is excellent.

Peter Hoskin

Debate for naught?

The debate over the raid on Damian Green's office is trundling along in the Commons (you can watch it here).  So far, the talking points have been a (failed) attempt to get the debate extended to six hours, as well as some Tory resistance to Michael Martin's proposed committee on the matter.  This should be Parliament at its very best - a packed House, debating an important issue that's angered many - but there's a sad air of pointlessnes about it all.  I guess it's something to do with Gordon Brown's whipping of the Labour benches.  As Bob Marshall-Andrews put it earlier, he and his Labour colleagues are on a ""thinly disguised three-line whip" - which is probably a two-line whip mixed with some strong-arming from Brown's heavies.

Peter Hoskin

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 8 December – 14 December

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers' Wall. For those who haven't come across the Wall before, it's a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local paper, to chat about the latest football results.

Peter Hoskin

Convincing the creditors

The dangers of mounting national debt are spelt out clearly and persuasively by Frank Field in an article for today's Guardian.  Well worth reading the whole thing, but the bottom line is that desperate times may call for desperate measures: "If the debt can't be sold, it will be impossible for the government to continue. The only options then will be to print money, with all the dangers for a country of going along with such a policy; or for the political parties to come together - in a national government - to try to convince the gilt market that the country is serious about bringing under control the gap between projected government expenditure and its falling tax revenue base.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

A third term for the Speaker?

Despite his cynical attempts at buck-passery, the heat's still not off Michael Martin.  Numerous MPs across the House are thought to be, at best, underwhelmed - and, at worst, disgusted - by his actions before, during and after the police raid on Damian Green's parliamentary office.  A survey of MPs by the Beeb puts some numbers on the discontent: of 130 Parliamentarians, 32 said they have no confidence in the Speaker, against 56 who still have confidence in him.  On a separate question, 50 thought Martin culpable over the search of Green's office. One thing that may have been holding back Martin's detractors - and even those 56 who apparently have confidence in him - is the widely held supposition that he'll step down at the next election.  They'd better think again.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Did a minister have advance knowledge of the Green arrest?

This from Iain Martin over at Three Line Whip: "...the strong rumour is that one minister with good police contacts did know [about the Green arrest in advance] and has remained well under the radar since the row erupted last week, for understandable reasons. One thought: if that person was aware of what was going on, when it backfired would they actually 'fess up to the cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell, the PM or the media or just stay uncharacteristically quiet until the row blows over?" If it does emerge that a minister had advance knowledge of the Green arrest, then it's one of the worst things that could happen for the Government in this affair.

Peter Hoskin

Reid tells Smith how he’d have done things differently

No real bombshells in Jacqui Smith's statement on the Damian Green affair earlier (video here).  She pushed the same lines that we've heard from her throughout the past week: that it was right to involve the police; that she didn't know anything about the arrest; that the leaks coming from the Home Office are a "serious matter" etc. etc. As Andrew Sparrow points out, the most eye-catching moment was an intervention by John Reid.

Peter Hoskin

Put your questions to Theresa May

Theresa May - the Shadow Leader of the House of Commons, and MP for Maidenhead - has kindly agreed to a Q&A session with Coffee House. Just post your questions for her in the comments section below.  And, next Monday, we'll pick out the best ten and put them to her.  She'll get back to us with answers a few days later.

Peter Hoskin

The Speaker’s inaction does not make him unaccountable

Steve Richards puts it pithily in today's Independent: "The Speaker 'was told' the night before about a possible arrest. Did he not consider cancelling his plans and asking a lot of questions? Did the Serjeant-at-Arms not consider asking questions as she 'was told' what was going to happen. This is a saga that exposes incompetence, as well as a lack of proper accountability." The key point in all this is the Speaker's near non-involvement in the raid on Green's office - he happily outsourced every single bit of responsibility to the Serjeant of Arms.  Now he's trying to outsource the blame to her too.  But, to my mind, his non-involvement is exactly why the Speaker should be held accountable for this.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Brown’s mortgage surprise

A quick, capsule review of the Queen's Speech debate in the Commons: Cameron was at his rapier-like best, while Brown performed his typical dodge-the-question act.  But the PM did have one trick up his sleeve, and quite a big trick it was too.  He announced an agreement between the Government and the UK's 8 largest banks, by which downturn-hit homeowners will be entitled to defer their mortgage interest payments for up to 2 years.  The Government will guarantee against any losses that the banks would otherwise suffer because of this. It's odd that this got no mention in the Queen's Speech itself (I suspect the plan was to unsettle the Tories during the debate - if so, if didn't work).

Peter Hoskin

The Tories fight back

The Tories aren't going to take Peter Mandelson's claims lying down, if Dominic Grieve's interview with Sky News is anything to go by.  The shadow home secretary has just said he thinks Mandy is unfit for office: "This morning, Lord Mandelson has been banging on about national security.  We don't believe there is any national security angle to it at all. This is fantasy land, being spun by Peter Mandelson.  This is what worries me so much.  The political element keeps on creeping back in. I don't trust Peter Mandelson.  I don't think he should be in political office, I don't think he's fit for it." Many will be sympathetic to Greive's claims, but I'm not sure how much the Tories should push this issue at the moment.

Peter Hoskin

Ceremony, bills and a joke

Nothing especially exciting to report on State Opening day yet.  The Queen's delivered her Speech, leading with the line that "My Government's overriding priority is to ensure stability of the British economy during the global economic downturn" (see full text here).  And Dennis Skinner's delivered his traditional "joke", asking whether there are "Any Tory moles in the Palace?"  Much more likely that any fireworks will come later, when we'll see both Michael Martin's statement on the Damian Green arrest and Parliamentary debate over the Government's legislative programme. P.S. Good point from James Kirkup on the deemphasising of constitutional reform.

Peter Hoskin

Bare-knuckle rhetoric from Mandy

Peter Mandelson's performance on Sky earlier was remarkably venomous.  Here's the main thrust of it: "I also have to say I think that for many Conservatives, it is a self-serving smokescreen, behind which to hide their own apparent collusion with a Home Office official who was allegedly systematically leaking Home Office papers to the Conservative Party, in order to pursue his own personal political ambition... ...I would like to know from the Conservatives whether their frontbench and their leader knowingly colluded with that civil servant in riding a coach and horses not only through the Civil Service code but also through the law." Putting aside the strength (or weakness) of Mandelson's position here, this fresh outburst should serve as a warning to the Tories.