Pawel Swidlicki

Yesterday’s rejection of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement by Dutch voters was loudly cheered by Leave campaigners. It will certainly have boosted their morale. It will also have increased the sense that the continent is in chaos and that the EU is becoming less credible. Ultimately, the result is rooted in the EU’s longstanding failure to address its many internal problems, above all its lack of accountability and weak democratic legitimacy. Since the referendum mechanism did not allow for a vote on EU membership itself, Dutch campaigners used the EU-Ukraine deal to express their displeasure with the EU project. However, I doubt it will have significant implications for the UK referendum.

Although many MEPs believe that the European Parliament is the centre of the known political universe, in truth the goings on in Brussels and Strasbourg rarely trouble the attention of anyone who is not a dedicated EU geek. That said, the decision by the Conservatives' ECR group to admit the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland party could have wider repercussions for Anglo-German relations, and therefore the prospects for Cameron's EU reform agenda. For those who are not familiar with AfD here is a potted history: the party was founded by German academics opposed to Merkel's Eurozone policies, specifically the bailouts. As it has grown, AfD has combined a more socially conservative policy agenda with populist rhetoric.

In February, David Cameron managed to rally of group of likeminded countries to agree a historic cut to the EU’s long-term budget. However, due to the maddening complexities involved in the EU politics, a cut isn’t always a cut (just as an opt-out isn’t always an opt-out).  Which is why, while all eyes in Westminster were on the scrap between George Osborne and Ed Balls over the Comprehensive Spending Review, the European Commission’s presentation today of its draft budget for 2014 – the first under the new deal – is politically significant. For Cameron, there is both good and bad news. The good is that the 2014 budget does indeed represent a cut in spending – from €144.5bn in 2013 down to €135.9bn, a reduction of 5.8 per cent.