Patrick O’Flynn

Given the complexities of modern government, with all its pitfalls and unforeseeable reverses, pointing out when ministers have made a mess of things is certainly an important part of the repertoire of opposition – the equivalent of a boxer’s jab in our pugilistic political system. But the ‘it’s a shambles’ method of politics can only take an opposition party or its leader so far. On the rare occasions that Labour has talked about illegal migration across the English Channel since Boris Johnson became PM and Priti Patel was appointed Home Secretary, this has been its favoured line of attack.

The tragic drowning of more than two dozen people in the English Channel yesterday should remind us that closing down this irregular migration route has become a multi-purpose moral duty. Not only does the British state have a responsibility to do so to preserve its social contract with its citizens and the integrity of the nation, but also to protect lives. The large-scale loss of life that took place was the proverbial accident that had been waiting to happen. There has been a spate of smaller-scale drownings in recent weeks and it was only a matter of time before a fully laden, sizeable inflatable capsized or sank. Boris Johnson reacted to the tragedy by finally calling a Cobra meeting to discuss immediate action to prevent a repeat.

Perhaps the past seven chaotic weeks are best regarded as an experiment by the Tories. Boris Johnson's intention appears to be to establish just how badly he can run the country while remaining on course for re-election. Despite calamity after calamity hitting Boris’s administration, things are still looking rosy for the party: Politico's poll of polls shows that we are basically back where we were this time last year – at pretty much level-pegging between the Conservatives and Labour. There is no sign of the kind of positive surge in support for the opposition that would indicate the electorate is considering putting it into power.

The sheer number of useless interventions that have been touted as offering a solution to the cross-Channel migrants crisis is bewildering. Various rounds of talks with France about heightened cooperation to make the route non-viable; paying large sums of money to France to fund beach patrols; appointing a cross-Channel Clandestine Threat Commander; threatening to 'call in' the Royal Navy; threatening to turn back overladen boats in the world’s busiest shipping lane; pressuring social media platforms to prevent successful landers from sharing videos of themselves looking happy and triumphant that supposedly create a pull factor for others; even a direct prime ministerial interview to camera promising 'we will send you back'.

Rishi Sunak thinks Boris Johnson goofed badly when he conspired to upend Commons standards procedures. And he agrees with his red wall colleagues that this appeared to place the government on the side of a privileged elite. That is certainly the standard interpretation of his comment this week that the government needed to do better – and indeed unattributable briefings by an ally say that he regarded the episode as a ‘mistake’ which should be acknowledged by someone of cabinet rank. But if red wall Tories are tempted to regard Sunak as the true keeper of their flame then I suggest they think again. Because while Johnson has indeed gaffed, the Chancellor has also recently announced a decision that may well imperil their re-election prospects.

‘You’re an accountant. You’re in a noble profession. The word “Count” is part of your title,’ the corrupt impresario Max Bialystock tells the neurotic bean-counter Leo Bloom in The Producers. Just a few weeks ago MPs from all parties had convinced themselves of something similar as they came together to pay tribute to David Amess. MP after MP spoke movingly about how they were all in it for the best of motives and how the public realm would be better served if everyone cut out ad hominem attacks on political opponents. Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner even put out an apparently heartfelt statement of regret about having described Boris Johnson’s MPs as ‘scum’ and promised to do better in future.

History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes, said Mark Twain. Right now the commentariat is looking for something that will rhyme with the famous Battle of Knutsford Heath of 8 April 1997. In that face-off, Neil Hamilton and his formidable wife Christine were ranged against the white-suited 'anti-corruption' independent candidate Martin Bell. Though the Hamiltons gave as good as they got for the cameras, Bell had the last laugh by comfortably winning the formerly impregnable Tory seat of Tatton in the general election held a month or so later. With a by-election now looming in Shropshire North following the sleaze scandal that engulfed departing Tory MP Owen Paterson, leftish opinion is excitedly searching around for a new man or woman in white to pull off the same trick.

They were queuing up to eclipse Keir Starmer this week. Rishi Sunak – already ahead of Starmer in the polls when it comes to who would make the better prime minister – came brimming with barbs designed to make the leader of the opposition look like a chump on Budget day. In the event, Starmer did that to himself by getting hit with a Covid sicknote and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves took his place, securing rave reviews from leftist commentators in her leader’s absence. But the most significant and damaging eclipse of Starmer occurred far away from Westminster and was therefore the least noticed.

Are you someone who is delighted by the government’s eye-wateringly expensive commitment to deliver ‘net zero’ by 2035, or are you a dissenter on the grounds that its plans do not go far, or fast, enough? According to the BBC and many other media organisations, you must surely belong to one of those two groups. Somehow the widely held viewpoint to which I subscribe – that the weight of evidence suggests man-made climate change is a big problem but we should still scrutinise climate policies on grounds of proportionality, value for money and how they measure up against less idealistic alternatives – has been squeezed out. Tuesday morning’s news bulletins on the Today programme provided a case study of how the debate is being framed.

Boris Johnson is taking one heck of a risk by making labour shortages a deliberate part of his economic strategy. That, at least, is the conventional wisdom about the Prime Minister in the wake of party conference season.  If things go well, then businesses will raise productivity by investing heavily in new machinery and more training for home-grown workers who currently lack key skills. And then all will be fine for Johnson. But if things go badly, labour shortages will merely fuel rampant inflation, while gaps on shop shelves will become endemic. Key groups of voters will turn on the PM, hastening his demise.

It is hard not to feel sorry for Priti Patel. She would surely have been a Tory conference darling at the gathering that never happened back in autumn 2020 at the height of the pandemic. Back then she always came towards the top of cabinet ministers' popularity in the monthly survey conducted by the Conservative Home website. But this year the Home Secretary’s ratings have dropped like a stone. She currently sits in 29th place, staring up in envy at such magnetic figures as Alok Sharma and Alister Jack and without even the comfort of knowing that there is always Gavin Williamson to look down on. In the mini-hall being used for cabinet minister speeches at conference this year, she was received warmly enough as she strode onto the stage.

Keir Starmer’s incredible shrinking pamphlet was initially said to run to 14,000 words, then 13,000, then 12,500 and now 11,000 is even being mentioned. As someone who has read it from start to finish, let me assure you that whichever of those word counts is accurate, it’s still much too long. But those who are disparaging the document as useless are nevertheless barking up the wrong tree. In fact, it is a tremendously useful document – but useful to the Conservatives rather than Labour. Because while earnest Sir Keir has failed to come up with anything that will produce the kind of visceral connection with the electorate that could presage political momentum, he has nonetheless telegraphed to the Tories his basic plan of attack.

In the dying days of Theresa May’s benighted premiership I spotted a long-serving Tory MP on the same weekend train as me, a few rows down. This old whips office hand had naturally bagged a table of four for himself and spread out documents and newspapers across it to deter all-comers. But he seemed most focused on a smaller piece of writing paper on which he periodically scrawled a note. After a few minutes he got up and headed to the buffet car so I did what most of those trained in my trade would have done in the circumstances and sauntered past his vacated table to take a sneaky look. The notepaper was his own House of Commons headed variety and contained a list of about 20 Tory MPs. At the top was one name underlined twice: Liz Truss.

It didn’t take long for the open-borders brigade to try and politicise the magnificent feat of British teenager Emma Raducanu in winning the US Open women’s singles. Rather than just revelling in the general outbreak of joy in the country, or praising the astonishing maturity of Emma’s performance, the usual blue-tick suspects piled onto Twitter within minutes of her victory to argue, or imply, that the fact Emma was born in another country (she moved here from Canada aged two) proved that immigration in all its guises is always a good thing. Times columnist Sathnam Sanghera stated the case plainly: ‘Half Romanian, half Chinese. Born in Canada, brought up in the UK. Immigration enriches us, and always has done.

When Victoria Beckham noticed that her husband David had developed a winning way, not just with her but with almost everyone else too, she came up with a wry nickname for him: Goldenballs. What billionaire’s daughter Akshata Murthy calls her husband Rishi Sunak within the confines of their family homes is anybody’s guess but there is no doubt that he is on a golden run of his own right now. As his rivals to succeed Boris Johnson blow up — both Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Home Secretary Priti Patel are currently subject to heavy speculation about imminent demotion — nobody seriously believes that Sunak’s position as Chancellor is in jeopardy.

The sun is beating down again, the waves are less choppy in the English Channel and the small boats full of irregular migrants are pouring across once more. At least 1,000 men, women and children were reportedly spotted landing on the south coast yesterday. If these numbers are correct, it would have shattered the previous daily record of 828, recorded on 21 August. But Home Office sources were today briefing that was an over-estimate and the likely official number will be about 740, merely the second highest daily total ever. The graphs plotting the staggering acceleration of this traffic make grim reading indeed – this is one curve that has never been flattened.

Which Boris Johnson should Labour fight? There is little doubt about the personality traits most left-wing activists think they have detected in the Prime Minister and which motivate them to campaign tirelessly for his removal from office. The Johnson they are fighting is a cruel and dastardly right-wing serial liar who wins elections by pulling the wool over the eyes of the voters. A British Trump, in other words. One social media activist is very proud that his video of the PM ‘lying’ to the Commons and elsewhere has 32 million views. But one wonders how many of those views came from people who were not already convinced Boris-haters? In fact, many of the ‘lies’ documented in the video concern mere exaggerations or disputed interpretations.

When Theresa May told a joke at her own expense at a reception of Tory MPs held to celebrate Boris Johnson’s landslide election victory in December 2019, the assembled audience breathed a sigh of relief. Many had expected the freshly re-elected May to be a thorn in the side of her successor during the ensuing parliamentary term. But her deferential joke, about her own botched 2017 election campaign, seemed to amount to an acknowledgment of the superior appeal of Boris Johnson. In fact, the pessimists were right first time, and this has been underlined by May’s extraordinary speech about Afghanistan in the Commons this week. Almost everything she said appeared designed to cast the Prime Minister in a negative light.

Sometimes things that don’t happen are as important as those that do. In the Sherlock Holmes story Silver Blaze, about the theft of a racehorse, the failure of a dog to bark is the central fact that allows the crime to be solved. Holmes mentions this 'curious incident of the dog in the night-time' to a Scotland Yard detective who is puzzled and tells him: 'The dog did nothing in the night-time.' Holmes replies: 'That was the curious incident.' There is a strong case for regarding the failure of a dog to bark as the central fact of British political life today.