Patrick O’Flynn

After the crushing majority won by Rishi Sunak for the ‘Stormont brake’ element of his new deal on the terms of trade in Northern Ireland, a single question is on the lips of many MPs: whither the ERG? For the once-mighty European Research Group – the Tory party’s formidably well organised Praetorian Guard which shielded the Brexit flame from Remain – was able to field fewer than two dozen votes against this key element of the Windsor Framework this week. At one crucial juncture back in 2019, a mere sub-element of the European Research Group, the ‘Brexit Spartans’, played a decisive role in killing off Theresa May’s terrible proposed sovereignty giveaway. And there were 28 of them.

I don't know about you, but it’s getting rather tiresome for me now. The Boris Johnson saga, that is. Did he knowingly mislead parliament about rule-breaking lockdown parties in Downing Street? Very probably. Though perhaps not certainly, if one places any credence in his argument that nobody in authority definitively told him boozy post-work gatherings in Downing Street offices were prohibited. So on that front everything depends on what standard of proof of deliberate deceit the privileges committee decides to work to. It was a case of cometh the hour, cometh the man. And the hour is now passed If it throws the book at him, will he survive any recall petition or by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, or indeed hold the seat at the general election? I’m guessing yes.

The BBC-based sitcom W1A centred on a running joke about how the spinelessness and ineptitude of senior management led them to dig themselves ever-deeper into holes. At one point in the series, the Corporation’s 'Head of Values' is wrong-footed by an ex-footballer who wants to be a television pundit. Another episode centres on him closing down an orchestra which turns out to be widely admired by licence-payers. Well, life imitating art and all that then. Today’s 'resolution' of the Gary Lineker furore, which began on the basis of the director general Tim Davie’s determination to defend the Corporation’s impartiality, could hardly have done more to cement its reputation as a redoubt of liberal Left bias and groupthink.

I never expected staff at an entire department of the BBC to put their shoulders to the wheel of the campaign to bring about an early demise for the television licence fee. Yet that is what those working for BBC Sport have done with their rock-solid sympathy strike on behalf of Gary Lineker. Of course, most of them probably don’t realise what they are doing. With many of the big names of BBC Sport being former professional footballers themselves, one should not expect a particularly exalted level of intellectual reasoning.

So long as the extensive pre-briefing of the Illegal Migration Bill turns out to be a reasonably accurate reflection of its contents, things are looking up for those of us who rank ‘stopping the boats’ as one of our top political priorities. Sunak and Braverman are about to launch legislation that appears sufficiently broad ranging and radical to have a major impact Rishi Sunak and Suella Braverman are finally about to launch a piece of legislation that appears sufficiently broad ranging and radical to have a major impact if it can be steered onto the statue book without being emasculated by parliamentary rebellions in the Commons and especially the House of Lords.

The blond bombshell has criticised Sunak’s new Windsor Framework as not passing the Brexit test of taking back control. He's made clear that he believes abandoning the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is a terrible idea and says he will find it very hard to vote for his successor’s measure. In return, Sunak loyalists are muttering about it being Johnson’s mess – i.e. the original disastrous protocol that he agreed and then oversold at the tail end of 2019 – that their man has been clearing up. In fact, they both have good reason to feel chippy – but not with each other. For the true villain of the piece has altogether escaped accountability.

Knowing when to accept victory is a key political skill. But it is not a universally held one among leadership cadres. The Palestinian people, for instance, have in the past been led by men who have turned down hugely advantageous deals offering major concessions. Once rejected on grounds of not amounting to absolutely everything desired, those concessions never appear again. Were the Democratic Unionist Party to accept Rishi Sunak’s 'Windsor Framework' agreement with the EU, the party would widely be regarded to have played a blinder once the dust had settled.

At the heart of Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation statement there came a moment of self-awareness that one does not often encounter among those at the top of the political tree. While Sturgeon insisted that there was majority support in Scotland for independence, she acknowledged that it needed to grow further in order to prevail. 'To achieve that, we must reach across the divide in Scottish politics. And my judgment now is that a new leader will be better able to do this,' she said. So it is bizarre that less than a fortnight later the bookies’ odds point to SNP members leaning to the view that the person they should turn to is Humza Yousaf, a middle-wit purveyor of boilerplate nationalist soundbites and opinion.

The Tory Left wants Rishi Sunak to take a leaf out of Theresa May’s book by unilaterally giving up British leverage in a dispute with Brussels. Where May boxed in her country and her successor by accepting the UK must do nothing in pursuit of Brexit that would lead the EU to think it needed to impose a 'hard border' on the island of Ireland, the issue now is the passage of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill which is currently paused in the House of Lords. The Bill, which would give the Government legal power to walk away from onerous aspects of the Protocol, has undoubtedly helped concentrate minds at the European Commission as regards the need for that instrument to be made more flexible.

Political leaders are like tribal chiefs and one way of assessing their fortunes is by counting up the number of heads they have accumulated from the toppled leaders of rival tribes. Tony Blair had the shrunken skulls of John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard threaded around his waist when he left the stage. Sunak never gave the SNP leader grounds to caricature him as an arrogant Sassenach It undoubtedly enhanced Keir Starmer’s authority when Boris Johnson was brought down, though his part in the immolation of Liz Truss soon afterwards was less obvious. On this basis, Rishi Sunak is entitled to point to a modest enhancement of his political capital via the business of the downfall of Nicola Sturgeon.

The whole point about making five key pledges, as Rishi Sunak did at the start of the year, is to give the average voter a consistent message. The idea is that such pledges, which should have been judiciously drawn-up based upon extensive opinion research, are hammered home again and again until the typical person far away from the Westminster Village has digested them. What is Sunak’s administration for? Surely everyone knows that: to halve inflation this year, grow the economy, make sure our national debt is falling, cut NHS waiting and stop the boats.

The old socialist Ian Mikardo used to say that a political party was like a bird in that it needed a left wing and a right wing in order to fly. The guiding principle of Rishi Sunak’s mini-reshuffle seems to be that the Tory party needs a Blue Wall and a Red Wall in order to sustain a parliamentary majority. The appointment of Chelsea and Fulham MP and former George Osborne protégé Greg Hands as party chairman is about the most Blue Wall thing ever. Giving him the plain-speaking Ashfield MP Lee Anderson, a former coal miner, as deputy, could hardly be more Red Wall.

There have been two major reactions to reports that Rishi Sunak is ready to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights if that’s what it takes to solve the small boats issue in the Channel. The first, common among denizens of the Westminster village, is surprise that an outwardly conventional product of the system would even contemplate such a radical move. The second, prevalent among disenchanted former Tory voters on social media, is a diamond-hard cynicism that tells them they are being conned again and he will never do it.

During the run-up to the referendum, some ardent Remainers attempted to brand the EU as a Great European Peace Project. Chuka Umunna, the former Labour MP turned investment banker, pushed this line in a radio debate I took part in with him. I made the usual pro-Leave point about Nato being the key international body guaranteeing peace in Europe, but conceded that Germany and France having a joint political project to focus on may have made a useful additional contribution. This enabled the additional point to be aired that the idea they would start a war against each other should the UK leave the EU was preposterous. Being a generally reasonable fellow, Umunna conceded as much and the debate moved on to other areas.

It is a very dangerous time to be a Conservative MP and not just because the party is trailing by 20 points in the opinion polls with a general election looming. The sacking of Tory chairman Nadhim Zahawi after an investigation found he seriously breached the ministerial code means that, soon enough, we will no longer be seeing his gleaming pate and tight suit on the front pages for day after day. Rishi Sunak can – and no doubt will – claim to have handled the affair with principle and professionalism. The PM will insist that due process was applied, rather than the kind of kangaroo court resorted to by some previous premiers.

Last year, after several instances of grimacing in front of broadcast inquisitors who delighted in his discomfort, it appeared that Keir Starmer had finally reached a clear position on trans issues. ‘A woman is a female adult and in addition to that transwomen are women,’ he told the Times. But here’s a thing: if transwomen are women, then clearly the serial rapist Adam Graham/Isla Bryson should be in a women’s jail – as it would be an outrage to expect a woman to serve her sentence in a men’s jail. What’s a quick 180 on a core human rights issue between friends?

The political world splits in two whenever fresh evidence emerges that Boris Johnson does not think that life’s rules and norms apply to him. One faction, the majority, humourlessly harrumphs about standards and brands him unfit for high office. Another tries to excuse the latest infraction. It’s a grey area. It’s not a serious matter. There’s a vendetta against him. Today we saw the latest case of Johnson finding it churlish to expect him to stick to the ‘network of obligation that binds everyone’ (a phrase that should be copyright of his Eton classics teacher, Martin Hammond).