Oscar Edmondson

The big news in Westminster today is that there has been another defection to Reform. But this time it feels slightly different: a front bench Tory with a CV that spans multiple Tory leaders and a number of books on Conservative thought is now batting for Reform. Danny Kruger, Nigel Farage’s latest defector, served as David Cameron’s speechwriter, Boris Johnson’s political secretary and Robert Jenrick’s campaign manager just last summer. His defection will therefore come as a serious blow to those who argue that the Conservative party stands a better chance than Reform of winning the next election.

Kemi Badenoch has just skewered Keir Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions on the topic of Peter Mandelson’s association with the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.  Badenoch learned from her mistakes last week and devoted all six of her questions to trying to get Mandelson fired as British Ambassador to Washington. She pointed out that the victims of Epstein had ‘called for Lord Mandelson to be sacked’, and then asked whether Starmer had been aware ‘of this intimate relationship when he appointed Lord Mandelson to be our ambassador in Washington’. It was potentially her most convincing performance yet and she managed to pull together diffuse threads of world and domestic affairs into a focussed attack on the Prime Minister and his US ambassador’s credibility.

Reform UK’s annual conference wrapped up this weekend – and it was anything but dull. From Andrea Jenkyns belting out her original song ‘I’m an Insomniac’ on stage to Nigel Farage trying to keep a sometimes chaotic movement united, the mood was more rally than conference. Despite the optimism in the room, there were obvious cracks under the surface: mainly, do Reform have enough experience in their ranks for the business of serious government? On Coffee House Shots, Oscar Edmondson is joined by Tim Shipman and James Heale fresh from the conference floor.

James Heale writes in The Spectator this week that Keir Starmer is facing a three-pronged attack from the left: the Greens, the Gaza independents and this new – as yet untitled – Corbyn party. It was not so long ago that we were giving Starmer credit for his ruthless streak, purging the party of the far left and making Labour an electable force once again. But now it looks like he may well be the architect of his own downfall. Each of these groups has a grievance against Starmer and it all seems just a little bit personal: ‘After the treatment meted out to Corbyn and the left, many of these figures are looking forward to returning the favour.’ So, what is left of the left of Labour?

Today James Heale has been on quite the magical mystery tour. Bundled into a bus at 7.45 a.m. along with a group of other hacks, he was sent off to an aircraft hangar in Oxfordshire where Nigel Farage finally unveiled his party’s long-awaited deportations strategy. The unveiling of ‘Operation Restoring Justice’ was accompanied by some impressive production value, including a Heathrow-style departure board and an enormous union flag.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has given a wide-ranging interview to the BBC’s Amol Rajan in which she touched upon her Nigerian upbringing, her feeling of identity and she even revealed she called out a peer for cheating at school. But perhaps her most interesting comments came when she revealed how she lost her belief in God. The Reverend Fergus Butler-Gallie, author of Twelve Churches, and Tim Shipman join Oscar Edmondson to discuss Kemi’s comments. Is it credible to call yourself a ‘cultural Christian’? And, with both an atheist Prime Minister and agnostic Leader of the Opposition, is the decline of religion in politics inevitable?

It’s the big day for Starmer’s one-in, one-out migrant deal with France. The scheme, which was agreed during the state visit last month, comes into effect today – but Yvette Cooper and other figures in Whitehall remain suspiciously evasive when it comes to putting a number on returns to France. Immigration is, of course, the problem of highest salience across the country, and made even more pressing by recent riots at migrant hotels, giving far-right opposition parties plenty of ammunition. Polling shows that 40 per cent of Reform supporters would consider voting for Labour next time if the number of small boat arrivals fell. So, will it work? Will it prove a better deterrent than, say, the Rwanda deal?

There is the small matter of the Macron–Starmer press conference today, at which the Prime Minister will hope to announce a new migration deal with France. But we thought we would dedicate today’s podcast to Angela Rayner, with some MPs thinking that the answer to Labour’s woes could be to ‘give it Ange until the end of the season’. As Tim Shipman reports in the magazine, she has undergone quite the political transformation – keeping her head down and away from incoming fire. Downing Street is taking her increasingly seriously. Is she the new John Prescott – or even the next Labour leader? Also on the podcast today: Jake Berry, former Conservative party chairman, defected to Reform last night. But how much of a coup is that really for Nigel’s gang?

Keir Starmer will have been hoping for a more relaxed week – but he certainly won’t be getting one. He is facing a fresh rebellion over support for children with special educational needs (SEND), which threatens to become welfare 2.0. The plan involves overhauling the SEND system and it’s another case of Labour MPs exclaiming that they didn’t stand on a Labour ticket just to target the most vulnerable in society. The main concern among backbenchers is whether it should be legally enforceable for parents to ensure their children receive bespoke support. Elsewhere, all roads lead to the Treasury, as Neil Kinnock has a solution for increasing Rachel Reeves’s headroom: a wealth tax.

Today Wes Streeting – with the help of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves – announced his 10 year plan for curing the NHS. It’s all about creating a ‘Neighbourhood Health Service’, but what does actually mean in practice?  Much of the plan was leaked in advance: first, focusing on preventing disease before it becomes too late; second, improving community healthcare services to help reduce pressure on hospitals; and third, embracing the tech revolution to bring the NHS into the ‘digital age’. One of the glaring omissions is a chapter on how this will all be delivered. Perhaps the most notable part of today’s launch was the decision to include Rachel Reeves – last seen in the Commons looking distraught as the Prime Minister (brutally) failed to back her.

Keir Starmer has performed a screeching about-turn on his flagship welfare reforms, all in the hope of quelling the rebellion from more than 120 MPs who have been promised ‘massive concessions’ over concerns about disability benefits. These include moderating the bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits, and offering to protect Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants for ever – to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants, a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climbing to £100 billion by 2030.

The weekend saw the US launch airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, with Tehran warning of ‘everlasting consequences’. Despite an emergency Cobra meeting and Luke Pollard’s morning media round, we are still waiting for an answer on whether the government supports Trump’s action. Keir Starmer’s assured and confident position on the world stage now looks to be in peril, as he is pulled between Trump, his attorney general and the court of public opinion. Can he de-escalate? Also on the podcast, Nigel Farage delivered a speech this morning in which he announced changes to non-doms and unveiled a new ‘Britannia card’ – although most of the questions afterwards centred on the situation in the Middle East.

It’s a historic day in Westminster, where MPs will vote on the assisted dying bill – the outcome of which could have huge repercussions for healthcare, politics and the courts. It’s such a significant day, in fact, that we’ll be recording another podcast just after the result is announced at around 2.30 p.m. Kim Leadbeater’s camp remains confident that the bill will pass, although many anticipate a much closer vote than at the second reading. This is in no small part due to high-profile members of the party being opposed to the legislation, and Keir Starmer remaining characteristically evasive on the issue. The backdrop, of course, is the resignation of a government whip, Vicky Foxcroft – though over a separate issue: Liz Kendall's plan to cut personal independence payments.

Zia Yusuf resigned this evening from his position as chairman of Reform UK, saying: ‘I no longer believe working to get a Reform government elected is a good use of my time.’ This comes after he tweeted yesterday that it was ‘dumb’ for Sarah Pochin, Reform’s newest MP, to urge the Prime Minister to ban the burka during PMQs. Did he jump before he was pushed? And can Reform UK really claim to have ‘professionalised’ when this is the second high profile departure this year?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale.

Today the government has published the long-awaited strategic defence review. The brief was to take a new look at some of the challenges to the UK in 2025, and what is needed to ensure our security and reset our defence priorities. We are still waiting for some of the detail, but so far we know: £15 billion for new warheads to be carried by the new Dreadnought-class submarines; a dozen new SSN-Aukus attack submarines; £1.5 billion to build at least six munitions' factories; £6 billion to procure munitions over the remainder of this parliament; and £1 billion for digital capability and a new CyberEM Command. Where is all that money coming from? Most of the squabbling today has been over the commitment to 3 per cent of GDP on defence spending.

Lots to discuss today: Robert Jenrick takes on TfL, a Nazi jibe from the attorney general and allegations of shoplifting made against our own Michael Simmons. But we start with Keir Starmer’s big speech yesterday, where the theme was ‘get Nigel’, after polling from More in Common showed that framing the election as a two-horse race could be beneficial to Labour. They are attempting to cut the Tories out altogether but, in response, the Conservatives plan to use fiscal credibility as the battleground to crawl back up the polls. Will the economy save the Tories? Elsewhere, Robert Jenrick is the star of the week after a video of him reprimanding fare-dodgers on the Tube went viral, racking up more than ten million views on X.

After sustained speculation and a local elections drubbing, Keir Starmer announced today at PMQs that the government will be softening their policy on winter fuel. Whilst it won’t come into effect for some time, they have agreed to ensure that ‘more pensioners are eligible for winter fuel payment.’  This comes hours after a memo was mysteriously leaked to the Telegraph. It contains an extensive list of recommendations from Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner to the Treasury, including a set of eight tax rises such as reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and altering dividend taxes. This amounts to a direct challenge to Rachel Reeves’s fiscal approach and preference for spending cuts.

Keir Starmer has succeeded in keeping immigration at the top of the news agenda for another day – although he may not be happy with the headlines. After his set-piece announcement yesterday, the Prime Minister is caught between fire from both sides. On the left, he is accused of ‘pandering' to Nigel Farage and even echoing the rhetoric of Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech – with regard to Starmer's statement about Britain becoming an ‘island of strangers’. Meanwhile, Farage has called the Prime Minister ‘insincere’ and ‘playing catch-up’. Within Labour, some backbench MPs have broken ranks. But it is the quiet, soft-left faction – already uneasy about winter fuel, foreign aid etc. – that will concern the PM most.

Keir Starmer has kicked off what may be one of his most significant weeks in the job with a white paper on immigration. In it, the government details its plan to ‘take back control’ of migration, promising that numbers will fall ‘significantly’ – although no target number has been given. The plan includes the following: English tests for all visa applicants (and their adult dependants); an increase in the residency requirement for settled status from five to ten years; and new measures making it harder for firms to hire workers from overseas, including abolishing the social care visa and raising the threshold for a skilled worker visa. Many have interpreted the move as an attempt to stem the rise of Reform by beating them at their own game.