Oliver Wiseman

Those in the White House masochistic enough to have read the results of the ABC/Washington Post poll published yesterday will surely have had an uneasy start to the week.  The poll reveals plenty of problems for Biden and those whose job it is to persuade the American people to give him another four years: the fact that it shows him losing by six points to Donald Trump, widely panned as a busted flush with no appeal beyond the MAGA hardcore; the solid majority of voters who do not think the Biden has the mental sharpness (63 percent) or the physical health (62 percent) to serve as president; and the new record low approval rating in the survey (36 percent).

Another week in the spring of 2023, another round of claims that the 2024 Republican primary is over before it has even begun. As regular readers will know, this newsletter’s firmest 2024 conviction is that it’s far too soon for such definitive declarations. Trump may not be like other presidential contenders, but anyone ready to hand out prizes should remind themselves who was leading the pack at this stage in previous cycles. Driving the sense that it’s all but over is a growing consensus that Ron DeSantis doesn’t have what it takes: he lacks charisma, he doesn’t know what ideological lane to occupy, he has made the fatal mistake of trying to beat Trump at his own game.

Ever since Biden took office, immigration has been one of those things his administration would rather not talk about. It’s not hard to understand why. The polls show a consistent and heavy slant in favor of the Republican Party on the issue; internal Democratic Party divisions (between pro-immigration liberals and open-border absolutists) make for awkward conversations; and a president and party that opted for moral outrage on the issue in opposition struggled with the transition to power — which brings with it the difficult tradeoffs inherent to immigration policymaking.

When Florida governor Ron DeSantis first squared up to Disney last year, he presumably hoped to deliver a short, sharp counterpunch. Instead, he finds himself locked in a protracted legal battle with one of the most recognized and beloved brands in America, which also happens to be one of his state’s largest employers.  A year after the governor first locked horns with the mouse, the row risks overshadowing DeSantis’s carefully planned presidential launch, reportedly scheduled for mid-May. Last week Disney announced it was suing DeSantis, arguing that DeSantis is punishing the company for criticizing a Florida law that places restrictions on how gender and sexuality should be taught to young children.

West Virginia governor Jim Justice announced that he is running for US Senate on stage at the Greenbrier, the swanky hotel owned by his family, yesterday. “I absolutely will promise you to God above that I will do the job, and I will do the job that will make you proud,” said the larger-than-life Justice, with his pet bulldog (and political mascot) Babydog sitting in a red armchair next to him.  The announcement sets up the possibility of an epic showdown between Justice (a former Democrat, now a Republican) and his friend Joe Manchin. The race could be decisive when it comes to control of the Senate after 2024. Manchin is one of three Democratic senators up for reelection who represent states won by Donald Trump in 2020.

The shaky foundations of Biden 2024 Joe Biden promised to “finish the job” in a video announcing his 2024 run released Monday. A year and a half out, the president’s reelection pitch has serious flaws and yet, with Ron DeSantis failing to make any headway against an indicted Donald Trump, you can understand why Biden and his team might be feeling confident about their chances. Before we unpack that paradox, a quick reminder of the weaknesses of Biden as a candidate next year. There’s his age, of course, and all the embarrassments it brings and stage-managing it demands. (Note that he will not have the cover of a pandemic this time around.) There’s the unimpressive economic record. (His launch video was notably light on claims about the health of the US economy.

Massive media news has gazumped all else in Washington today, with politicos far more interested in what is happening at Fox News and CNN than at the White House or on the Hill. In truth, it is the news that Tucker Carlson and Fox have parted ways that really has DC talking; Don Lemon’s acrimonious dismissal from CNN a less consequential, if amusingly bitchy, chaser.  Given the blurred lines between politics, entertainment and news in America today, the Tucker story is almost as big a political story as it is a media story. (And for more details on the circumstances of the departure, read Cockburn’s juicy diary entry below.

So far in his presidency, Joe Biden has largely been able contain the political fallout of the misdeeds of his son Hunter. He has been helped by a pliant press that, with some honorable exceptions, is reluctant to do anything so indecent as reporting on the president’s family. But another crucial factor has been a Justice Department investigation that has progressed at a snail’s pace.  That ongoing investigation into possible tax evasion and a firearms offense, launched more than five years ago, has left Hunter in a holding pattern that suits his father: the White House has been able to bat away questions about whether Hunter had done anything illegal.  That stalemate is now over.

Ron DeSantis is doing just fine Is Ron DeSantis a shoo-in for the 2024 Republican nomination or this cycle’s Scott Walker — an overhyped early favorite who flops in dramatic fashion? A lot of very over-caffeinated coverage of the Florida governor seems to assume these are the only two possibilities. Never mind that he still hasn’t announced a presidential bid. Never mind that it is still only April, and we’re still nine months out from anyone actually voting. So far, 2024 punditry has veered from one extreme to the other on DeSantis’s chances.  For at least a month, conventional wisdom has been bearish, largely thanks to polls that show DeSantis stalling in his effort to make inroads against Trump and the internal GOP dynamics around the Trump indictment.

Why everyone lacks credibility on the debt ceiling Time to cough up, America. Tomorrow is Tax Day and, fittingly, Congress returns this week with negotiations over the debt limit at the top of the agenda in Washington. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy set out his stall this morning with a speech in Manhattan. With the summer deadline on the fiscal cliff fast approaching, McCarthy today vowed that “in the coming weeks, the House will vote on a bill to lift the debt ceiling into next year,” adding that the legislation would also “save taxpayers trillions of dollars, make us less dependent on China, and curb high inflation, all without touching Social Security or Medicare.

Why Feinstein’s intransigence will worry the White House I’m not quitting! Dianne Feinstein was channeling her inner Jordan Belfort this week when she refused to cave to calls from fellow Democrats to retire. The eighty-nine-year-old senator has been a headache for her party for some time now, with colleagues seemingly convinced that she is no longer mentally capable of executing her duties as senator and hoping for a speedy, low-key and dignified departure. The Democrats’ Feinstein problem looked like it was solved when, in February, she announced her retirement at the end of her term in 2024. But in early March Feinstein announced she had contracted shingles. Her staff said she’d only be away from the Senate for a few weeks.

Joe Biden’s Ireland trip is all about Joe Biden Half a century since he was sworn in as a US senator, the Biden brand is a well-established series of safe bets: a fondness for aviator sunglasses, a hankering for chocolate chip ice cream. Also high on the list: conspicuous displays of Irishness. The second Irish-American president is fond of quoting Heaney and Yeats. He may be the only teetotaler who enjoys St. Patrick’s Day, which he says is his favorite holiday.  And so much about Biden’s trip to Ireland this week is unsurprising. After landing in Belfast last night, the president this morning had a quick cuppa with British prime minister Rishi Sunak and gave a speech to mark twenty-five years since the Good Friday Agreement.

What’d I miss? The week I chose to take off (thanks to my colleagues for keeping the DC Diary show on the road) was the worst for Republicans in a while. The last Republican president and the party’s 2024 frontrunner was arrested and charged in Manhattan. In a high-stakes, big-spending Wisconsin Supreme Court race, voters delivered a thumping progressive victory and a clear thumbs down to the Republican stance on abortion in the Dobbs era.  Meanwhile, GOP donors are reportedly going wobbly on the man many hoped would swoop in and save the party. Ron DeSantis is struggling to make himself heard over the Trump-arrest cacophony.

The many unknowns of the Trump indictment The first president to be impeached twice has become the first former president to be indicted once. Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday. It is at that point that the charges against him, relating to hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, are expected to be unsealed.  In the almost twenty-four hours that have passed since the long-expected news of the indictment finally broke, much has gone as expected. Trump’s statement made the complaints you’d expect. Almost every high-profile Republican, including every 2024 contender, has criticized Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg and his case against the former president (not that we know what it is yet, exactly). The White House has kept mum.

Does Biden have a problem with King Charles?  Next month, the British and Irish governments will commemorate twenty-five years since the Good Friday Agreement was signed. Political leaders past and present, from both sides of the Irish Sea, and both sides of the Atlantic, will meet in Belfast to mark a quarter-century since the historic peace deal was signed. The guest list will include King Charles, Irish and British heads of government and protagonists from both sides of the peace talks. Bill and Hillary Clinton will reportedly be in attendance. As will George Mitchell, the US senator who chaired talks between republicans and unionists. Missing from proceedings, however, will be Joe Biden.

Spoilt for choice in the Windy City If the heavy defeat suffered by incumbent mayor Lori Lightfoot last month is anything to go by, Chicagoans have plenty to grumble about when it comes to how their city is managed. But when they head to the polls in the mayoral runoff next week, they cannot complain about a lack of choice. The two candidates are both Democrats, to be sure, but they offer sharply different approaches on the crime and public safety — issues that have dominated the race and which polls suggest are at the forefront of voters’ minds.  Paul Vallas, who used to run the city’s public schools, is running in the moderate lane: sharply critical of Lightfoot and prioritizing public safety above all else. Brandon Johnson is the progressive option.

TikTok’s terrible, no good, very bad day TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew arrived for a hearing on Capitol Hill yesterday with his company facing a forced sale or a ban in the US. In other words, it was an important day for Chew and his company: a chance to put the best case forward for TikTok’s continued existence in America. Chew assembled a formidable force for his Congressional D-Day. TikTok has paid for the best in the business if that business is getting Democratic administrations to do what you want: retaining SKDK, the lobbying firm founded by top Biden advisor Anita Dunn. They also have progressive lawmaker Jamaal Bowman on their side.

Why Trump’s indictment is no ‘moment of choosing’  His former vice-president recently said that “history will hold him accountable.” This week, his biggest rival for the 2024 Republican nomination made a series of not-so-veiled digs at him, bringing up porn-star hush money and questioning his leadership and character. In other words, as Donald Trump braces for a possible indictment and arrest, it’d be hard to describe the Republican Party as one big happy family. 2024 contenders seem more and more comfortable criticizing the former president. Congressional Republicans, who are at a retreat in Orlando this week, hardly seem enthusiastic about the prospect of playing defense for Trump yet again.