Nick Timothy

It is impossible to deny the sense of gloom and pessimism in Britain today. The economy is stagnant, and our society is divided. The opinion polls convey what many of us know: that the public do not trust the mainstream parties to steer us away from our predicament. The conversation around many family dinner tables is dark: parents worried that their children will miss the opportunities they enjoyed, and young people contemplating emigration. Even the spectre of civil war is being discussed – not just in private but online and in the media. It is easy to list the individual things that are going wrong. But to really understand what is happening and why – and what we must do to save our country – we have to go a little deeper.

To the uninitiated, Tattersalls is an historic and world-renowned bloodstock auction house in Newmarket, Suffolk. Since 1766, the finest race horses in the world have been bought and sold here. As the magnificent beasts are paraded around the sales ring, eager bidders sit in circular rows of seats, each aiming to catch the auctioneer’s eye. This is a serious business: last year Tatts sold 10,000 horses and turned over 400 million guineas.  On Sunday, the famous old building bore witness to a different business but one which is no less serious. Lord Hayward, former Conservative MP and retired rugby referee, played auctioneer.

Nobody inside CCHQ was prepared for election night’s 10 p.m. exit poll. Lynton Crosby’s last text to me predicted that we were going to ‘do well’, which according to our expectations would mean a Conservative majority of more than 60. A late projection, based on data from the ground and Jim Messina’s modelling, suggested we would win 371 seats, giving us a majority of 92. In the end, the Conservatives got their highest share of the vote since 1983, and more votes than Tony Blair managed in any of his elections, yet still we ended up with a hung parliament. Skilful leadership may deliver stability, but the absence of an overall majority means the nature of the Brexit deal the government negotiates is more uncertain.

Nobody inside CCHQ was prepared for election night’s 10 p.m. exit poll. Lynton Crosby’s last text to me predicted that we were going to ‘do well’, which according to our expectations would mean a Conservative majority of more than 60. A late projection, based on data from the ground and Jim Messina’s modelling, suggested we would win 371 seats, giving us a majority of 92. In the end, the Conservatives got their highest share of the vote since 1983, and more votes than Tony Blair managed in any of his elections, yet still we ended up with a hung parliament. Skilful leadership may deliver stability, but the absence of an overall majority means the nature of the Brexit deal the government negotiates is more uncertain.

Yesterday, I resigned as the Prime Minister’s adviser. Clearly, the general election result was a huge disappointment. What lay behind the result will no doubt be the subject of detailed analysis for many months. My immediate reaction, however, is this. The Conservatives won more than 13.6 million votes, which is an historically high number, and more than Tony Blair won in all three of his election victories. The reason for the disappointing result was not the absence of support for Theresa May and the Conservatives but an unexpected surge in support for Labour.