Merryn Somerset-Webb

For some years now it has been fashionable for fund managers investing in Europe to consider the entire Eurozone as one great big market divided up not by national boundaries but by industry. They see the choice not as between investing in Spain or in Switzerland but between, say, pharmaceuticals and retail. And when asked if Europe is expensive or cheap they won’t tell you that one country is cheaper than another; they’ll tell you the price-earnings ratio for the zone as a whole. This all sounds very modern and clever but I wonder if it really makes sense. It is becoming increasingly clear to me that they might actually be better to look at investing in Europe the old-fashioned way, country by country.

In Bond Street tube station an ad catches my eye every morning: ‘140 million people, 9th largest market in the world, 42 billion tonnes of bitumen, 3rd largest movie industry in the world, Africa’s fastest growing telecommunications market. Nigeria ...it’s more than what you think it is.’ The effect is slightly ruined by the grammar of that final slogan, but the message gets across: anyone in the business or investment world who has written Nigeria off as nothing more than a no-hope nation of clever but fraudulent letter-writers is making a mistake. The same could be said of much of the rest of Africa.

For fund managers who specialised in Japan, 2005 was a fantastic year. After more than a decade of dealing with a market in the doldrums they suddenly found themselves in the middle of a boom: stocks were rising fast, gurus around the world were tipping Japan as their favourite market and Japanese-themed hedge funds were springing up everywhere. Money poured in and the managers — who had looked resentfully at the fortunes being made in US and UK markets for many years — started to live the dream: they opened offices in St James and rushed to buy the cars, boats and houses that the City thinks go with making real money. By the end of the year the benchmark index was up around  40 per cent and they were all rolling in cash.

If you are the kind of person who believes the things the City says, you might by now be almost convinced that we don’t really need oil any more. If you are the kind of person who believes the things the City says, you might by now be almost convinced that we don’t really need oil any more. Within seconds of the publication of the Stern report every analyst in town had become an expert on green energy, and investors were being advised to put their money in everything from wind, solar and wave power to fuel cells and biomass electricity plants, all of which were being put about as perfectly viable alternatives to fossil fuels. The problem is that, at present at least, they aren’t. Wind power is famously inefficient. Wave power is a very nascent technology.