Mark Galeotti

Ever since Donald Trump's now-infamous phone conversation with Vladimir Putin last month, Russia has been buzzing with speculation that Western companies which left the country after the 2022 invasion, especially US ones, will be returning. For some, this is a dream, for others a nightmare. Either way, it seems to be an overblown prospect fuelled by a refusal to accept just how toxic the Russian market will be for the foreseeable future. Under the headline 'Now Hello Again? How American Companies Will Return to Russia,' the popular tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets yesterday confidently asserted that 'American business wants to return to Russia, but now the game will be played by Russian rules'.

Ever since 2013, I’ve been hearing that Vladimir Putin is going to die any day. Is Volodymyr Zelensky now trying to spin the same line? At a press conference this week, the Ukrainian President said of Putin, ‘He will die soon – that’s a fact – and it will all be over', adding ‘I’m younger than Putin, so put your bets on me. My prospects are better.’ Admittedly, in actuarial terms, the 47-year-old Zelensky is likely to outlive the 72-year-old Russian leader. However, while the average life expectancy of someone born in the USSR in 1952, like Putin, is just 57, his grandfather Spirodon lived to the age of 86 and his father Vladimir Spirodonovich to 88.

The delegation Moscow sent to ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia was clearly well-chosen. Grigory Karasin, for example, the former diplomat (including a spell as ambassador to the United Kingdom, 2000-5) and Sergei Beseda, head of the Federal Security Service’s Fifth Service, especially responsible for penetrating and subverting Ukraine. They certainly seem to be doing a good job of advancing Russia’s interests at the talks. After Vladimir Putin reportedly acceded to a month-long moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure (which both Moscow and Kyiv are already accusing the other side of breaking), the latest round of talks seem to have led to the acceptance of the other leg of this painfully limited ceasefire, on attacks on civilian shipping in the Black Sea.

While Donald Trump may be threatening Moscow with major new sanctions, as it continues to hammer Ukraine with drones and missiles, the Russians seem unfazed. They assume this is just rhetorical for now – and they are probably right. This week has seen the US progressively cutting off its support for Ukraine, first suspending arms shipments, then pausing intelligence sharing and even access to the satellite imagery used to help target Russian bases and arms depots far from the frontline.

The United States's decision to suspend all intelligence sharing with Kyiv is a less visible but almost as serious and more immediate blow to Ukraine as the pause to arms deliveries. It also raises worrying questions about the future of intelligence sharing amongst Western allies. Ukraine is used to supplies of military materiel coming in fits and starts, and can and does stockpile ammunition, spare parts and the like to cover the dry seasons. It will probably be a couple of months before the pause really begins to have an appreciable impact on their operations. Besides, while some items such as Patriot missiles cannot be duplicated, domestic production and European and other systems can fill some of the wider shortfall, especially in drones and artillery ammunition.

Has Donald Trump’s heavy-handed negotiation style scored a win, or have the Ukrainians managed to wrench a victory of sorts from the jaws of defeat? Although the details are still unclear, Kyiv and Washington are confirming that a deal on mineral rights has been agreed, and that Volodymyr Zelensky will be on his way to the White House on Friday to sign on the dotted line. Trump has abandoned his ludicrously overblown demand for a $500 billion (£400 billion) return on what has actually been no more than $120 billion (£95 billion) given in total aid, through revenue from Ukrainian oil, gas and rare earth metals. Zelensky had understandably rejected this, saying ‘I am not signing something that ten generations of Ukrainians will have to repay.

We have no idea whether Vladimir Putin is serious about peace negotiations with Ukraine. He may simply be going through the motions while enjoying the spectacle of the West engaging in mutual recrimination and performative outrage, or he may genuinely feel there are grounds for some kind of agreement. More likely, given his track record as a tactician rather than a strategist, he is simply seeing what opportunities emerge. Nonetheless, his choices of format, venue and representatives may give us some sense of his intentions. His lead negotiator at abortive talks in Istanbul in 2022, for example, was Vladimir Medinsky.

The West may like to convince itself that it is, in the words of one American diplomat, 'strangling the Russian foreign ministry', but it ought to look south for a rather different perspective. On Tuesday, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was in expansive mood as he announced the formation of a brand-new Department of Partnership with Africa. Recognising that for years Moscow had neglected Africa, Lavrov blamed in part the bankruptcy of the late USSR and Russia in the 1990s, when embassies had to be shut down and sold off. I remember one polyglot diplomat who, while serving in Nigeria, had taken to spending his mornings giving English, French and Russian classes to make ends meet because his salary was so often in arrears.

In theory, the Kursk salient is one of the most militarily insignificant fronts of Putin’s war on Ukraine. However, war is ultimately all about politics, and the presence of Ukrainian troops on Russian soil is sufficiently problematic for President Vladimir Putin that Kyiv has decided to deploy more troops in a bid to reverse the slow recapture of the occupied territory. Having originally seized some 400 square miles in its lightning attack in August 2024, by last month, steady Russian pressure had shrunk Ukraine's grasp on territory to some 180 square miles. Although Ukraine still held the town of Sudzha – about the only significant settlement in this area – the front line had crept perilously close.

The Alye Parusa (Scarlet Sails) apartment complex in Moscow’s north-western Shchukino suburb bills itself as an exclusive place to live, and a safe one, too, with cameras, gates and 24-hour security. Neither this, nor his detail of bodyguards, saved Armen Sargsyan when, on Monday morning, a bomb with more than a kilo of explosive detonated as he was walking out the lobby. His leg was blown off, and although he was airlifted to hospital, he died shortly after. So far, this appears to be the latest in a campaign of assassinations carried out by Ukrainian intelligence. Sargsyan was a rather different figure to the last target in Moscow, Lt. Gen. Kirillov.

There is a perverse congruence of interests between the British and Russian governments, as both sides seek to talk up London’s level of influence in Ukraine. This was particularly visible in the new agreement signed between the UK and Ukraine last week – and Moscow’s response to it. To the Kremlin, after all, Perfidious Albion remains its most devious antagonist. True to form, the Russian embassy in London tweeted out that Prime Minister Keir Starmer's surprise visit to Kyiv represented 'a desperate attempt by British handlers to keep the agonising Kiev [sic] regime afloat' with 'new highly provocative UK plans, including the establishment of military bases within Ukrainian territory'.