From our UK edition
20 min listen
With Americans heading to the polls on Tuesday, the final polls continue to give Joe Biden a clear lead. What do they say, and what are the early signs on the night that his support might not be as strong as expected? Freddy Gray speaks to YouGov's Marcus Roberts.
From our UK edition
18 min listen
The latest polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in crucial swing states. But why could Georgia, which Trump won by more than 5 per cent in 2016, be the most important? Freddy Gray speaks to Marcus Roberts.
From our UK edition
10 min listen
The latest national poll from CNN puts Joe Biden 16 points ahead of Donald Trump. Has the President's short stint in hospital dented his re-election chances, or is an unsettled news cycle and an unrepresentative sample skewing the numbers? Freddy Gray speaks to Marcus Roberts, director of international projects at YouGov.
From our UK edition
26 min listen
A new poll from Harvard suggests that Joe Biden could win the votes of 60 per cent of under-30s in November's election. But does the Democratic candidate really energise young people, or are they simply repelled by Donald Trump? Freddy Gray speaks to Marcus Roberts, director of international projects at YouGov, about the numbers dictating the race.
From our UK edition
17 min listen
President Trump is continuing to rail again mail-in voting, alleging that millions of unsolicited ballots could be heading into American postboxes. Is there anything corrupt about the postal voting system, and does it hurt or help the democratic process? Freddy Gray speaks to Marcus Roberts, director of international projects at polling company YouGov.
From our UK edition
34 min listen
Vaccines are normally in the realm of scientists; but not this time as world leaders race to be the first. (00:50) Brexit is heating up, but is the government in a stronger position than it seems? (13:35) And a modern day Caligula - the life and times of the Thai king Rama X. (22:40)With journalist Matthew Lynn; immunologist Beate Kampmann; our political editor James Forsyth; YouGov pollster Marcus Roberts; and Asia historian Francis Pike.Presented by Cindy Yu.
From our UK edition
23 min listen
Freddy speaks to Marcus Roberts, head of International Politics at YouGov. When Freddy and Marcus spoke before the 2016 election, Marcus was adamant that Hillary Clinton would win. With the benefit of four more years, what do the polls say about Trump now?Get 50 per cent off of a Spectator USA subscription here with offer code 'NOTNYT'.
From our UK edition
The Conservatives want the next election to be about Brexit and Boris Johnson in Number 10. Labour want the election to be about stopping no deal and issues other than Brexit like the NHS, education and the climate change crisis. In terms of how this plays out in marginal seats, both sides have headaches. So let’s look at each of these points in turn. Firstly, Boris Johnson wants a gladiatorial contest against Jeremy Corbyn for control of Number 10. Johnson leads Corbyn by 40 to 20 per cent for best Prime Minister. In response Corbyn's allies cite the revival of his leadership numbers in the 2017 election; but hoping for an improvement in the numbers isn’t as good as having a strong position to begin with.
Would you like to forecast a ‘better than expected night for the GOP’? Start saying things like ‘interest levels in the elections are broadly similar between the two parties — if Dems were going to have such a great night, why aren’t they ahead in this key metric?’ or, ‘remember the enthusiasm gap closed after the Kavanaugh hearings.’ On the other hand, if you want to make the case for the Blue Wave, you’ll probably find there’s even more data to help back you up. Start by looking to YouGov/CBS News’s final MRP model (the same approach that proved super accurate in last year’s UK general election) showing a likely 225-210 Democratic win in the House.
