Kenneth Baker

The switch from a 16,000 Tory majority to a Lib Dem majority of 8,000 in Chesham and Amersham is a gamechanger. HS2 was a special factor, though even the Lib Dems did not say they would cancel it. But there was real anxiety that the Tory planning changes would threaten local communities. The Tories had a good candidate, but Peter Fleet has since said that many of his electors were concerned that the government’s mammoth spending programmes would lead to higher taxes. The result should come as little surprise. The 2019 local elections gave a clear sense of where things were headed, when a huge number of Tory seats were unexpectedly lost in Chelmsford, Chichester, East Cambridgeshire, Guildford, South Oxfordshire, Winchester, Surrey Heath, Woking and Spelthorne.