Jonathan Jones

In their first poll conducted fully after all the party conferences, YouGov once again tested what difference replacing David Cameron with Boris Johnson would have on the Conservatives' poll rating. As in their previous two attempts in September, YouGov's numbers show Boris narrowing the gap to Labour by seven points: with Cameron as leader, the Tories trail by nine (33-42); with Boris, they're just two behind (38-40). Interestingly, Boris doesn't do any better among 2010 Tory voters than Dave — both retain 65 per cent of them. What the Mayor of London does is attract more 2010 Labour voters (6 per cent of them, to Cameron's 3) and Lib Dem voters (18 per cent, to Cameron's 10) than the Prime Minister.

Just as Ed Miliband seemed to get a poll bounce from his conference speech last week, so David Cameron seems to have got one from his on Wednesday. On YouGov's question of who would make the best Prime Minister, Cameron has extended his lead to 14 points. That more than reverses the bump Miliband got on that question from his conference (he had closed the gap from 12 points before the conferences to just four last week). In fact, it's the best result for Cameron on that crucial question since the Budget in March. On voting intention, the Tories' conference does seem to have helped them close the gap to Labour a little. YouGov's latest poll has Labour's lead at seven points (42-35), down from 14 points (45-31) last week.

Labour leave Manchester today with a 14-point poll lead over the Conservatives, according to YouGov. That's their biggest lead in a YouGov poll since June, although one last week showed them 13 points ahead, so we shouldn't rush into declaring a big conference bounce for them. It does seem, though, that Ed Miliband himself did get a decent boost out of his hour-long speech on Tuesday. 10 per cent of people say they watched or listened to the whole thing, and a further 49 per cent say they've seen or heard reports about it. And it seems Ed did manage to change at least a few of their minds about him. 31 per cent now say he 'would be up to the job of Prime Minister' — still not a great number, but an improvement on the 25 per cent who said so last week.

Listening to Ed Miliband's conference speech, I was stuck by the similarity of one section of it to that of another speech given by someone else who's taught at Harvard: law professor Elizabeth Warren. Today, in Manchester, Miliband spoke of ‘the system’ not working in much the same way as Warren — now running for the United States Senate — spoke of ‘the system’ being rigged in her speech at the Democratic National Convention last month.

It's becoming clear which will be the battleground states of the 2012 US Presidential election. With less than seven weeks to go, just nine states look competitive: Colorado and Nevada in the Southwest; Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin in the Midwest; Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South; and New Hampshire in the Northeast. Of the safe states, Barack Obama can count on 18 (plus DC), against Mitt Romney's 23. Romney's path to victory looks very tough for two main reasons. First, as the below map (which I produced at 270towin.com) shows, the safe states give Obama 237 electoral votes to Romney's 191. That means Obama needs just 33 of the 110 electoral votes available in the nine competitive states to give him the 270 he needs for victory.

Over the past two days, we've had polls from four different pollsters, and all of them show big leads for Labour. Yesterday, Populus gave Ed Miliband's party a 15-point lead — the largest lead the pollster has ever shown for Labour. Today, Ipsos MORI shows Labour ahead by 11 points and TNS BMRB have them up by 12. The latest YouGov tracker gives Labour a nine-point lead, although averaging their polls over the last week makes it more like ten points. The precise margins may be different, but all of these results would — if replicated in a general election — result in a large Labour majority and hand Ed Miliband the keys to 10 Downing Street. But while voters say they would vote for Miliband's party, they still don't seem enthusiastic about making him Prime Minister.

When I looked at the battle for the United States Senate back in July, I said it'd be tough for the Democrats to retain control. But since then — and particularly since the party conventions — things have begun to look up for their candidates in a number of key races. In Missouri, where incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill is vulnerable, the Republicans nominated their least electable option from a close three-way primary. Congressman Todd Akin is firmly on the Tea Party wing of the GOP, and didn't help himself with his comments about 'legitimate rape'.

Much is being made today of reports that George Osborne will drop his fiscal target in his autumn statement on 5 December. Isabel reported earlier that, faced with breaking his own rule, Osborne will abandon it rather than implement more cuts to meet it. All the fuss seems to stem from a note by Citi Reasearch last Friday. You can read the whole thing here, but here’s a summary. Like Gordon Brown, Osborne has two fiscal rules. Neither says anything about eliminating the deficit, or even halving it. The first — called the 'fiscal mandate' — is 'to balance the cyclically-adjusted current budget by the end of a rolling, five-year period'. It’s a moving target, simply requiring that at any time the government plans to eliminate the structural deficit within five years.

Alok Sharma has been appointed Tory vice chairman and charged with improving the party's standing among ethnic minority voters. He certainly has a big task ahead of him. According to the Ethnic Minority British Election Study, the Conservatives received just 16 per cent of the ethnic minority vote in 2010, to Labour's 68 per cent. The Tory vote share among Black voters was actually in the single figures: Lord Ashcroft has suggested that this weakness prevented the Tories from picking up the extra seats they needed for a majority, noting that: 'The average non-white population of the constituencies the Tories gained from Labour in 2010 was 6 per cent.