Jonathan Jones

The result might be in, but that doesn't mean there's nothing useful polls can tell us about the Eastleigh by-election. What swayed the voters? Why did they vote as they did? And — perhaps of most interest — how might they vote next time? Yesterday, Lord Ashcroft's polling operation phoned 760 Eastleigh residents, 654 of whom had voted in the by-election. All sorts of warning labels need slapping across the figures: they aren't weighted, so are subject to a much higher risk of selection bias than other polls, and even if the sample were representative and random, the margin of error would be 3.5 points (and higher for subsets of those 760 respondents). But here are a few interesting nuggets from the data: 1. The Lib Dems won the ground game.

Forget Moody's. If you want to see market panic, just look at Italy. As Isabel reported this morning, the unexpectedly strong performance of Beppe Grillo's anti-establishment party, the Five Star Movement, has produced an extremely close election result, and no clear winner. While the electoral system guarantees a majority in the Chamber of Deputies for the group with the largest vote share (Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left group), it does not do so for the Senate. With no group securing a majority in the upper house, Italy now faces coalition negotiations and likely another election.

It seems that Moody's downgrade of UK government bonds on Friday night has — so far — had more effect on the headlines than the markets. After the news on Friday night, the pound fell by about a cent against the dollar, from $1.525 to $1.515. And against the euro it fell from €1.157 to €1.147 (it's fallen a little further this morning, to €1.144). But that's no bigger than the drop on Wednesday on the news that Mervyn King and two other members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee had voted in favour of more quantitative easing. And it doesn't seem to have raised the cost of borrowing much. The yield on ten-year government bonds did rise slightly from 2.11 per cent at close on Friday to 2.

Ed Miliband has taken inspiration for his 2015 attack line from an unlikely source: Ronald Reagan. In 1980, a week before the election between himself and incumbent President Jimmy Carter, Reagan told voters to ask themselves: ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ At PMQs today, Ed Miliband told the Prime Minister ‘In 2015, people will be asking “Am I better off now than I was five years ago?”’ His hope, clearly, is that voters will decide the answer is ‘no’ — and that they'll vote against the government as a result.

After Chris Huhne's resignation, the by-election campaign in Eastleigh is already well underway. James explains the political significance of this Lib Dem-Tory battle in this week's Spectator, but here are some quick facts about the state of play in Eastleigh, including the first poll results: A brief history Eastleigh constituency started out as a Tory-Labour marginal in 1955. Conservative David Price was its first MP, elected with a majority of just 545. By the time he retired in 1992, it had become a fairly safe Tory seat and Stephen Milligan was elected to replace him with a majority of 17,702. But when Milligan died in 1994, the Liberal Democrat by-election machine swept in to action and David Chidgey was elected with a 9,239-vote majority.

Would the European Court of Human Rights force churches to conduct same-sex marriages against their will? That’s the professed fear of some opponents of the Same Sex Marriage Bill being debated in the Commons today. The Church of England sent MPs a briefing paper saying 'We doubt the ability of the Government to make the legislation watertight against challenge in the European courts', and such fears have been invoked in today’s debate by Graham Brady and other Tory backbenchers. They present their opposition as a defence of religious freedom (even though maintaining the current law restricts the religious freedom of those churches who would like to perform same-sex marriages).

What's changing? Bulgaria and Romania joined the European Union on 1 January 2007. This gave their citizens the freedom to travel unrestricted within the EU, but countries were allowed to impose transitional controls on their freedom to work for up to seven years. In 2004, when eight other east European countries (the 'A8') joined the EU, the Labour government decided not to impose such restrictions, but this time they did. Those controls must be lifted by 1 January 2014. What are the transitional controls?

The battle-lines over the Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill — which faces its second reading in the Commons this afternoon — have been drawn. Labour has tied its opposition to the Resolution Foundation's analysis showing that the bulk of the policy will hit working families. As Ed Balls put it last week, 'Two-thirds of people who will be hit by David Cameron and George Osborne’s real terms cuts to tax credits and benefits are in work.' They've labelled the move a 'strivers' tax', a continuation of the divisive rhetoric from both them and the Conservatives that seeks to pit 'hardworking families' against 'people who won't work' (as a recent Tory ad put it).