Jonathan Jones

A poll to compound Miliband’s woes

From our UK edition

A YouGov poll for this morning's Sunday Times provides proof of mounting disgruntlement with the Labour leader. And not just among the public as a whole, but also among Labour supporters. Asked whether Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader, just 30 per cent say "well" (including a tiny 3 per cent who say "very well"), while 53 per cent say "badly" (including 21 percent "very badly"). The bad news for Ed is that the "well" figure has barely moved since just after he was elected, when almost half said they didn't know how well he was doing. Now an extra 31 per cent have formed an opinion of him, but without any net increase in the number thinking he's doing any good.

The decline and fall of Newt Gingrich

From our UK edition

A couple of days ago, Newt Gingrich's campaign for the US presidency imploded when the leaders of his campaign team quit en masse. The exodus — which included his campaign manager, spokesman and senior strategists — came after an awful month for Gingrich, and looks like it might seal the fate of his already flagging campaign. Just a month ago, when the former Speaker of the House officially declared that he was seeking the Republican nomination, his fundamentals looked fairly strong. He has very high name recognition (a result of the four years he spent leading the Republicans in Congress in the late 1990s) and was polling fairly well.

From the archives: New Labour’s civil war

From our UK edition

The Telegraph's publication of all those documents today has got everyone talking about that feud again. Here is what The Spectator's former editor Matthew d'Ancona had to say about the Blair-Brown wars when things were hotting up in the autumn of 2006: The great New Labour civil war, Matthew d'Ancona, 6 September 2006 Two days before David Cameron was elected Conservative leader, I asked one of his closest allies what the founding principle of Cameronism would be. He pondered the question. Would it, I wondered, be something to do with quality of life, the public services, the environment, social justice, nationhood? ‘Our starting point,’ he finally replied, ‘is that the Tory party can never beat Tony Blair.

Whether she runs or not, Palin won’t be President

From our UK edition

Mitt Romney may be announcing his candidacy today, but the real buzz still surrounds Sarah Palin. Will she run for the Presidency or not? She's certainly keeping us guessing. Alex has already written about the crazy media circus surrounding Palin's "One Nation" bus tour, which she launched on Sunday. But looking at the polls, she is unlikely to win the nomination — let alone the election — however much hype she can muster. First up, here's the state of the race, according to the national polls conducted in the last fortnight: As you can see, Palin is currently running a clear second, trailing Mitt Romney by around 3 to 4 points, but 4 points ahead of the rest of the field.

Big gain for Cain

From our UK edition

Remember Herman Cain? The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza who scored a surprise win at the first Republican presidential primary debate earlier this month? Well, the latest Gallup poll is out today, and shows him on 8 per cent amongst potential primary voters: essentially tied for third behind Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. This is the first poll conducted since Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump and Mitch Daniels all declared that they would not seek the nomination, and is also the first of Gallup's to include Cain's name. 8 per cent may not sound all that impressive, but it is when you consider that just 33 per cent of respondents know who he is. In other words, 24 per cent of those who've heard of Cain have him as their number one choice to be the nominee.

DSK arrest doesn’t spell success for Sarkozy

From our UK edition

Before being arrested in New York for rape, Dominque Strauss-Kahn wasn't just the Managing Director of the IMF. He was also the frontrunner in next year's French presidential election. In virtually every poll since last summer, Straus-Kahn had posted big leads: both against his fellow Socialists in the primary and against Nicolas Sarkozy in the general. So you might have thought that the trouble that has befallen DSK would improve Sarkozy's chances of being re-elected in 2012. Certainly the rape charges make Strauss-Kahn very unlikely to run, and much less likely to win even if he did, but the latest polling suggests it's not Sarkzoy who benefits at his expense. Rather, it's the other prominent Socialist candidates: François Hollande and Martine Aubry.

Conservative support to collapse at 6pm

From our UK edition

This evening, an event will occur that will make all the controversies and scandals of the last week seem somewhat irrelevant — at least according to American evangelical Harold Camping. He says that 6pm today is the time of the Rapture, as foretold in Thessalonians 4:17: all those "true believers" who accept Jesus Christ as their one true saviour will be taken up to heaven. For those of us left, we might wonder who will lead us through the "chaos and awful suffering" following both the loss of 40 per cent of the UK population and the earthquakes that will accompany it. Our Prime Minister — with his "sort of fairly classic Church of England faith" — would be gone.

From the archives: The Good Friday Agreement

From our UK edition

On Sunday, it will be thirteen years to the day since the people of Northern Ireland voted in a referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. The result was one of overwhelming support: 71 per cent to 29. Here is Bruce Anderson’s take on the Agreement from his Politics column at the time:   Mr Blair was rough on Mr Ahern (and while Unionists were there), Bruce Anderson, The Spectator, 18 April 1998   Occasionally, one is glad to be wrong. In this column last week, I wrote about the imminent collapse of the Ulster peace process. It seemed then as if everything was unravelling; the gaps between the various sides had been narrowed and narrowed, but still seemed insurmountable.

Ken Bloke’s proposals are not so popular

From our UK edition

What do the public think of Ken Clarke after his gaffe on Wednesday? According to a YouGov poll conducted during the 48 hours since his comments, a slim pluarlity think he should resign from his post as justice secretary: Perhaps unsurpisingly, the majority of Labour supporters agree with their leader's call for him to go, although a majority of Tories and two-thirds of Lib Dems think he ought to stay. When it comes to the issue at the centre of the furore - reducing the sentence for someone who pleads guilty by up to half (as opposed to a third, as it stands now) - the public is much more set against Clarke: More specifically, 33 per cent say there should be no reduction in sentences at all for people who plead guilty, whatever their crime.

Labour councillors giving themselves pay rises

From our UK edition

As the country tightens its belts, some councils are taking the courageous decision to increase spending on certain essentials. The Labour councillors who run the London borough of Southwark have identified a deprived group in need of urgent help: themselves. The council is amending its constitution (Page 48) to create 8 new executive posts to be filled by its own councillors, each of whom will receive an additional £2,800 a year. This comes while they take the axe to lollipop ladies, street cleaning services and libraries. Incidentally, for the extra they're spending on these unprecedented "deputy cabinet members", they could save 6 of the 12 crossing patrols they're cutting.

The Coffee House A-Z of the Coalition: T-Z

From our UK edition

Here are letters T to Z in our A-Z guide the coalition's first year. A-F are here. G-M are here. And N-S are here. T is for Tuition fees "Broken promises, there have been too many in the last few years." So said Nick Clegg in a Liberal Democrat video during the last election campaign. It was favourite theme of his — and one that he deployed both during the TV debates and in signing a pledge to scrap tuition fees. This was to be a New Politics. Clegg was to be its champion. Shame it didn't quite work like that. The coalition agreement was damaging enough to Clegg's aura: it didn't guarantee that tuition fees wouldn't rise, only that the Lib Dems wouldn't have to vote for such a rise.

The Coffee House A-Z of the Coalition: N-S

From our UK edition

Here are letters N to S in our A-Z guide the coalition's first year. A-F are here. G-M are here. N is for No Nothing has frayed coalition relations quite like the AV referendum has. This was always going to be the case, but the viciousness it inspired has still been fairly shocking. Need we remind you of Chris Huhne's outburst in Cabinet last week? Or of George Osborne's stinging riposte? Even David Cameron seems to have relished taking it out on his coalition stablemates, trashing their pet policies with a vigour that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago. As Tim Montgomerie reveals in his exhaustive guide to the No campaign, Cameron's firmer stance coincided with a realisation of just what he was risking.

The Coffee House A-Z of the Coalition: G-M

From our UK edition

Here are letters G to M in our alphabetical guide to the Coalition's first year. A-F were covered here. G is for Gaffes The coalition, happily, has not endured anything like a Gillian Duffy moment. But there has been a decent smattering of embarrassments and gaffes. Below is a brief selection, but CoffeeHousers can nominate others in the comments section: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nOhqo-47P8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_bFjZ27_ug https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wgZFb0Ycmg H is for Hidden talents A brief mention for those ministers who have exceeded expectations, or who have been quietly effective in their roles. Foremost among them has to be Theresa May, the Home Secretary.

The Coffee House A-Z of the Coalition: A-F

From our UK edition

The coalition is 1 today. Unfortunately, we can't serve jelly and ice cream over the internet — but we can write an A-Z to mark the first year of Cameron and Clegg's union. Below is the first part of that, covering the letters A to F. But, first, a little piece of political nostalgia for CoffeeHousers. A year ago today, this happened: And now for the A-Z… A is for Andrew Lansley Rap John Healey, make way for MC NxtGen. The Loughborough rapper may not be part of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition, but his three-minute denunciation of the coalition's health reforms — video above — did the job better than most politicians ever could.

Yes he Cain?

From our UK edition

Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com Have you ever heard of Herman Cain? Neither have most Americans. The latest Gallup polling shows that only 21 per cent of Republicans even recognise his name, despite the fact that he would like to be their candidate for the Presidency. Yet that could all be about to change for the man who used to run Godfather's Pizza, thanks to an acclaimed performance in the first debate of the primary season on Thursday night. Big names like Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump have yet to declare their candidacy, and so did not take part, while Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich (who have announced their bids) decided to skip it.

Clegg versus Huhne, at a local level

From our UK edition

While the Lib Dems lost control of Nick Clegg's city of Sheffield to Labour, losing 9 councillors, they won every seat up for election Chris Huhne's constituency of Eastleigh. They even took Labour's only council seat in the borough. It is worth remembering that the Lib Dems are waging very different types of battle in these two areas: against Labour in Sheffield and mainly the Tories in Eastleigh. Of all the Cabinet members, Huhne ran probably the most anti-Tory campaign in 2010, and many predicted a strong backlash against the Lib Dems in Eastleigh for going into coalition with them, perhaps with Labour supporters refusing to back them tactically over the Tories. On today's evidence, at least, this does not seem to be the case.

Your guide to tomorrow’s elections

From our UK edition

In light of ICM's latest poll, Lib Dems might be relieved to hear that tomorrow isn't all about the AV referendum. But it's a meagre sort of relief: they're facing a drubbing in the local elections too. We've put together a quick guide to those elections, as well as those in Scotland and Wales, so that CoffeeHousers know what to look out for, and Lib Dems know what to fear. Here it is: England The main question hovering over England's local elections is: how big will Labour's gains be? There are around 9,400 seats up for contention, of which the Conservatives currently hold about 5,000; Labour, 1,600; and the Lib Dems, 1,900.

How the Canadian elections panned out

From our UK edition

The votes have been counted, and the results of the Canadian federal election are in. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives Stephen Harper's Conservatives performed much more strongly than many expected, securing their first majority since 1993 by 13 seats. The New Democratic Party's vote did indeed hold up: they took 31 per cent of the vote (almost exactly as the latest polls predicted), and won 102 seats, beating the Liberals by a wide margin to become the official opposition. The Liberals had their worst election result in their 144-year history, returning fewer than half the MPs they had going into the election. The Bloc Québécois had a disastrous night too, also suffering their worst-ever election.

A brief guide to the Canadian elections

From our UK edition

Today Canadians go to the polls for their fourth general election in seven years, after Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government fell to an unprecedented motion citing it for contempt of Parliament. The story of the campaign has undoubtedly been the meteoric rise of Jack Layton's New Democratic Party. Until now, the centre-left NDP had been the third party nationally — and, in fact, fourth in number of seats, due to the regional strength of the Bloc Québécois. However, they have enjoyed a steady surge over the past three weeks, with the election-eve polls putting them on about 31 per cent — more than 10 points ahead of the previously second-placed Liberal Party, as the graph below shows.