Jonathan Jones

Cain takes centre stage

From our UK edition

Last night may well have been the moment Rick Perry's hopes of winning the Republican nomination finally ended. Having already seen his polling surge rapidly reverse - largely because of poor performances in the last two debates - he put in another poor performance as the candidates clashed in New Hampshire. Worse, he followed up the debate with an American history gaffe, saying: "actually the reason that we fought the revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown if you will". As a result, he was subjected to merciless Twitter mockery, via the hashtag #perryhistory. It's taken him a month to go from frontrunner to national joke. But, as I've said before, Perry's loss is Cain's gain.

Gus O’Donnell’s resignation letter

From our UK edition

Today, Downing Street has announced that the Cabinet Secretary, Sir Gus O'Donnell, will resign at the end of the year. Here is the letter he sent: Dear Colleagues I wanted to let you know that I am announcing my retirement today, after over six years as Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service. I will be leaving the civil service at the end of the year. I am extremely proud of the fantastic work that you do up and down the country – delivering services to the public. I have been a civil servant for 32 years and remain convinced of the importance of our traditional values of honesty, objectivity, impartiality and integrity in underpinning all the work that we do.

Crunch time for Fox

From our UK edition

"I don't believe that wrongdoing did occur", said Liam Fox in his apology yesterday. With today's front pages dripping with accusations, Fox has some work to do to substatiate that claim. The Guardian reveals that "Political lobbyists were paid thousands of pounds to help a Dubai-based businessman arrange a secretive meeting with Liam Fox": "an invoice, seen by the Guardian, shows that Boulter enlisted the services of a lobbying firm to help him skip layers of bureaucracy and meet Fox for an urgent meeting on the 41st floor of the hotel. The invoice shows Boulter paid Tetra Strategy £10,000 for "project fees". It is understood that the fees covered fixing up media interviews and political lobbying.

Palin and Rubio say no to 2012 bids

From our UK edition

It's been quite a week for Republicans deciding they're not interested in entering the White House in 2013. First, Christie closed the door on a presidential bid on Tuesday. Last night, Sarah Palin followed suit, saying: "After much prayer and serious consideration, I have decided that I will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for President of the United States... My decision is based upon a review of what common sense Conservatives and Independents have accomplished, especially over the last year. I believe that at this time I can be more effective in a decisive role to help elect other true public servants to office – from the nation’s governors to Congressional seats and the Presidency.

Christie staying out of 2012 race

From our UK edition

The broad narrative of the Republican primaries has essentially been "the search for an alternative to Mitt Romney". And that search looks set to continue with another potential candidate, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, set against running for president. Romney has been the favourite to win the nomination pretty much since the 2008 election. But he does not generate much enthusiasm among the Republican base: only 14 per cent of Republicans have a "strongly favourable" view of him (according to Gallup) and he's polling at just 24 per cent: pretty low for such a well-known frontrunner. As a result, many in the Grand Old Party have been looking elsewhere.

May’s cat story is nonsense

From our UK edition

If Theresa May took Ken Clarke up on his wager that no one has avoided deportation because they had a cat, as May claimed in her speech earlier, she should pay up. According to the Guardian's Andrew Sparrow, a spokesman for the Judicial Office has explained: 'This was a case in which the Home Office conceded that they had mistakenly failed to apply their own policy - applying at that time to that appellant - for dealing with unmarried partners of people settled in the UK. That was the basis for the decision to uphold the original tribunaldecision - the cat had nothing to do with the decision.' This is backed up by the UK Human Rights Blog run by 1 Crown Office Row.

Briefing: QE2

From our UK edition

Get ready for more Quantitative Easing. This week, Reuters found that economists think there's a 40 per cent chance the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce another round when they meet on Thursday. And even if they hold off now, it's unlikely to be for long. Weak growth and the worsening outlook for the economy seem to have changed minds. The Treasury has surveyed growth predictions from independent forecasters. Back in January, the average prediction was for 2 per cent growth in 2011. It has since fallen steadily to just 1.2 per cent. Similarly, expectations for 2012 have also been downgraded, from the 2.1 per cent growth expected in June to 1.8 per cent now.

Romney’s Churchill fixation backfires

From our UK edition

A couple of weeks ago Mitt Romney used Winston Churchill – or his bust, at least – to attack Obama. This week, he used the former Prime Minister to defend his flip-flopping. Or at least, he thought he did. Here's what he told a town hall in New Hampshire on Wednesday: 'In the private sector, if you don't change your view when the facts change, well you'll get fired for being stubborn and stupid. Winston Chuchill said, "When the facts change, I change too, Madam".' Unfortunately, as NBC have pointed out, the line wasn't Churchill's at all. It is usually attributed to John Maynard Keynes, but even that may be aprocryphal. So has another attempt to get over his record backfired on Romney? As Abraham Lincoln famously said, "You betcha!

Perry slumps, Cain surges

From our UK edition

Just over six weeks into his Presidential campaign, the sheen is coming off Rick Perry. Having entered the race as the favourite, he quickly established a double-digit lead over the rest of the Republican field. But now, especially after the candidates' latest debate last week, the momentum has shifted. Here, to illustrate Perry's fall, is yesterday's Fox News poll, compared to their previous one, conducted a month ago: As you can see, the drop in support for Perry has not led to much of an increase for his main rival, Mitt Romney. Instead, the biggest beneficiary has been Herman Cain, who has leapt from 6 per cent a month ago to 17 per cent now. That puts him in third place, just two points behind Perry and six behind Romney.

Getting over the expenses scandal

From our UK edition

Parliament's reputation seems to have recovered from its nadir during the expenses scandal. According to the government's "citizenship survey", the proportion of people trusting parliament fell from 34 per cent in 2008-09 to 29 per cent in 2009-10, while the European Commission's "Eurobarometer" showed an even bigger drop: from 30 per cent in November 2008 to 17 per cent in July 2009. According to the most recent surveys, however, trust in parliament is back up to pre-scandal levels: Of course, two-thirds of people still do not trust Parliament - far from a ringing endorsement.

Miliband v Clegg: now it’s personal

From our UK edition

It's safe to say that Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg don't get on. Even before he was elected leader, Miliband told the New Statesman he would never work with the Lib Dem leader: "Given what he is supporting, I think it is pretty hard to go into coalition with him." He refused to share a platform with Clegg in the AV campaign, and then attacked him in Newcastle with a list of promises he accused the Lib Dems of breaking. All along, the plan has been to turn those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 against Clegg and lure them over to Labour. Whether it's working is hard to tell. In the latest Ipsos MORI poll, 52 per cent of 2010 Lib Dem voters said they were "dissatisfied" with Nick Clegg, but then only 23 per cent are "satisfied" with Ed Miliband.

How’s Miliband doing?

From our UK edition

In a word: badly. Ed Miliband has now led Labour for a full year, but has made no progress with regards to its standings in the polls. When he took over, the Labour party was at 37 per cent in the polls, according to Ipsos MORI. Considering that 60 per cent give the Coalition government the thumbs down, he's had ample opportunity to improve this figure. And yet he's failed. In their latest poll, MORI again have Labour on 37 per cent.   When it comes to his own personal ratings, the picture is even worse. As Miliband has become more well-known and more people have formed an opinion of him, the number "satisfied" with his performance has actually decreased. This month, it hit its lowest point to date at 31 per cent.

Balls’ Brownies

From our UK edition

In his speech today, Ed Balls proved himself worthy of the "Son of Brown" tag, slipping in more than a few "Brownies". I thought CoffeeHousers would be interested in some of the figures behind his claims... Balls claimed that "we went into the crisis with lower national debt than we inherited in 1997". That is flatly untrue. Public sector net debt when Labour took over was £350 billion. In 2006-07 it was £500 billion. Even adjusting for inflation, Brown and Balls had added £62.8 billion in today's money to the national debt they "inherited" by the time the crisis started: Balls' defenders will say that he meant "debt ratio" – and, to be sure, debt did not rise as fast as GDP over those years so the ratio fell (from 42.5 per cent to 35.

From the archives: Ridley was right

From our UK edition

                                      In July 1990, Nicholas Ridley told Dominic Lawson that monetary union was "all a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe". He was immediately forced to resign from the Cabinet. In this week's magazine, which hits newsstands today, Lawson says that Nicholas Ridley was right (subscribers click here). Here, in full, is the article that ended his career: Saying the unsayable about the Germans, Dominic Lawson, 14 July 1990 It is said, or it ought to have been said, that every Conservative Cabinet minister dreams of dictating a leader to the Daily Telegraph.

How’s Clegg doing?

From our UK edition

When Nick Clegg speaks today, he can - as usual - rely on a good deal of support from those in the hall. According to YouGov, current Lib Dem supporters support him by a 2-to-1 margin. That's stronger approval than Miliband gets from Labour voters, although nowhere near the popularity David Cameron enjoys with his own party: 93 per cent of Tories say the Prime Minister's doing a good job. Among the population as a whole, though, there's no doubt Clegg is unpopular. But he does at least appear to have stopped the rot - both in his personal ratings and his party's. As the graph below shows, the majority of the Lib Dems' poll decline - from the 24 per cent they won in May 2010 to their trough around 10 per cent - occured in the first few months after the election.

Wooing women the Tory way

From our UK edition

Back in June, Melanie McDonagh wrote that "the Tories are desperate to regain the female vote". Today's Guardian scoop, a government memo on the need to better appeal to women, proves she's right. In places, the document reads as if it were written by a group of men to whom women are very much from Venus. They are careful to spell out the revelation that "of course women's views differ as much as men's", and their response to discovering their weakness was apparently to find whoever they could in Number 10 without testicles and ask what they were doing wrong. However, it does at least show that the government recognises that it's losing ground with women at the moment, and that it'll take more than footage of Cameron taking his kids to school to recover.

Inflation target missed again

From our UK edition

Today's inflation figures remind us of the trouble the Bank of England will have if – as most analysts suspect – it embarks on another phase of Quantitative Easing. CPI inflation was 4.5 per cent in the year to August, and RPI at 5.2 per cent, both up a touch from July.  CPI inflation has now overshot the Bank of England's 2 per cent target for 60 of the past 75 months. It has been at more than 3 per cent since the start of 2010. As a result of last month's figure, Governor Mervyn King wrote his now-standard letter to George Osborne to "explain" why inflation is above the target.

From the archives: “New York’s loss is also the world’s”

From our UK edition

Today marks the tenth anniversary of the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001. Here is the article Matthew Bishop wrote for The Spectator in response: Spirit of the Blitz, Matthew Bishop, 15 September 2001 New York People walk a lot in Manhattan. Its streets are always crowded. But never before like this. An hour after the attack on the World Trade Center, thousands of New Yorkers - refugees in business attire - trudged north as downtown evacuated. Many were covered from head to toe in white ash. Most walked in silence, contemplating the fact that somebody they know is probably dead, and that in the next 24 hours they will find out who. Others desperately tried to contact loved ones.

From the archives: 9/11

From our UK edition

This Sunday marks the tenth anniversary of the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001. Here is the article Stephen Glover wrote for The Spectator in response: "The terrorists want us to believe the world has ended. We must not fall into their trap.", Stephen Glover, 15 September 2001 As those who are old enough remember what they were doing when President Kennedy was shot, so we will all recall what we were doing when we heard about the attack on New York. I was reading the controversial new book about Tina Brown and Harry Evans, which I had planned to write about for this column. Then my elder son rang me. Immediately Tina and Harry and their New York lives seemed wholly irrelevant to what was going on there now.

Rubio for VP?

From our UK edition

Just under a year from now, Republicans will meet in Tampa, Florida for their National Convention, at which their candidate to take on President Obama will be nominated. So too will that candidate's running mate: the man or woman hoping to oust Joe Biden and become the 48th Vice President of the United States. The choice of VP candidate will be one of the biggest decisions facing whichever of the Presidential hopefuls emerges victorious in the primaries. Right now, the clear favourite to be selected is Marco Rubio. The betting markets give him around a one-in-three chance of being chosen, making him at least four times as likely as anyone else to be the VP candidate. Mitt Romney has already stated that Rubio's on his VP shortlist.