Jonathan Jones

I've interviewed one of the heroes of last year's US elections — forecasting expect Nate Silver — for the books blog, but I thought CoffeeHousers might be interested in what he had to say about UK elections. Silver's attempt to predict the 2010 election didn't fare so well (his model significantly underestimated Labour and overestimated the Lib Dems) and he explained the difficulties facing those who try in 2015: the lack of constituency polls, the multi-party system and tactical voting. Here's what he told me: ‘I think you'll have a big increase in the number of poll-driven forecasts here. We need more polling here. If you don't know what's happening in individual constituencies that's a bit tricky.

Labour's lead in the polls has been pretty steady at around 10 points for a little over a year now. So why does today's Guardian carry an article with the headline 'Outright election victory in 2015 looks a distant prospect, pollster tells Labour'? It's based on two YouGov polls — commissioned by Progress and actually conducted two months ago, but released today. The first asked voters to put each of the parties into one of four categories: 'nice and smart', 'nice but dim', 'mean but smart' and 'mean and dim'. Labour seems to come out best, in that it has the highest proportion choosing 'nice and smart' and the lowest choosing 'mean and dim'. But only 24 per cent say the party is 'smart', compared to 33 per cent for the Tories.

Talk of a by-election in Portsmouth South has been growing, fuelled by allegations against MP Mike Hancock. And, in a speech to the parliamentary press gallery lunch yesterday, Nigel Farage claimed Ukip could win it. The reasoning is simple: Ukip are on the up, and they came within 2,000 votes and 5 percentage points of a win in Eastleigh, so surely they can go over the top in another Hampshire by-election where the Lib Dem incumbent has had to step down amidst a scandal. Of course Ukip could win — but its chances may not be as high as that reasoning suggests. Indeed, Farage himself seems to think his party would be more likely than not to lose. He said 'I would think that the odds on Ukip winning it would be 2/1, 3/1 at Ladbrokes and elsewhere.

With the debate swirling about Margaret Thatcher's legacy and her government's record, it's worth taking a look at what the cold, hard economic data has to say about her time in office. Of course, growth rates and unemployment figures can't tell us everything about a period, but they can at least provide a bit of substance to mix with the well-worn rhetoric. 1. Average growth. Under Thatcher, GDP rose by 29.4 per cent — an average of 0.6 per cent growth per quarter. (That's the same as the average growth rate from 1955 to 2013.)   2. Manufacturing jobs lost, but more service jobs created. A net of 1.6 million jobs were created under Thatcher. The manufacturing industry lost 1.9 million, while the services sector grew by 3.6 million.   3.

YouGov have once again tested how a Boris-led Tory party would compare to a Cameron-led one in the polls. When they last did so in October, they found that Boris was worth a seven-point bump: with Cameron as leader, the Tories were nine points behind Labour; Boris narrowed the gap to just two. The results this time — reported by Joe Murphy in the Evening Standard — are very similar: the Tories do six points better under Boris than under Cameron. That's enough to eliminate Labour's lead entirely. With Cameron, it's Labour 37, Tories 31. With Boris, it's 37 all. As I said last time, switching to Boris probably would not be enough to give the Tories a majority.

A fascinating poll result from Ipsos MORI today. They ask, essentially, whether people agree with the government's 'Plan A' or Labour's 'Plan B'. Specifically, they ask: 'People have different ideas about the best way of dealing with Britain’s economic difficulties. Which of the following do you most agree with? A1: Britain has a debt problem, built up over many years, and we have got to deal with it. If we don’t, interest rates will soar. That’s why tackling the deficit and keeping interest rates low should be our top priority. OR B1: Without growth in our economy, we are not getting the deficit down and are borrowing more. We need more government spending on investment to kick-start our economy and a temporary cut in taxes to support growth.

Who are all these folk jumping on Nigel Farage's bandwagon? Ukip — which received just 3 per cent of the vote in 2010 — is now averaging about 11 per cent in the polls. Its rise has fuelled all sorts of speculation about where its supporters are coming from and why they're turning to the party. Today, YouGov have thrown a bit of data into that speculation. They've combined the results of all their February polls, which sampled 28,944 people including 2,788 who said they'd vote Ukip. The results are a mixture of the expected and the surprising. First, the expected: most of them voted Tory in 2010 — 60 per cent of them, in fact. 15 per cent of them voted Liberal Democrat, 12 per cent Ukip and 7 per cent Labour.