Jonathan Davis

Jonathan Davis says investors’ disregard for risk has paid off handsomely in 2006 — but it may not in 2007 A good general rule for investors is to take no notice of consensus predictions about what is going to happen in the next 12 months. The track record of year-end investment punditry is consistently poor. That makes the Christmas and New Year period particularly hazardous for the unwary investor, as the demand for forecasts is at its peak, and the capacity for misdirection consequently also high. This is especially so for those who are not aware of J.K. Galbraith’s adage that economists forecast ‘not because they know, but because they are asked’. One professional investor of my acquaintance has turned forecasting folly into a source of insight.

Hedge funds, you read here in June, are often riskier than they are made out to be. Putting your money into ‘a fund that blows up, closes down or disappears with all your money’, I suggested, is a real risk for the unwary investor. The danger, I could have written, is that you will find your money being looked after by Brian Hunter, a 32-year-old energy trader from Calgary who last month single-handedly accounted for the largest hedge-fund meltdown since records began. In the space of two short weeks, Mr Hunter worked his way through some $6.5 billion when his complex strategy of forward bets on the price of natural gas went badly wrong, wiping out 70 per cent of the capital deployed by his hedge fund employers, Amaranth Advisors.

What has been the single most successful and socially useful investment innovation of the last 30 years? Although paradoxically few investors will know what it is, or why they should be grateful that it exists, my nomination is the index fund. On 31 August this year, largely unheralded in the media, this dull but remarkable invention celebrated its 30th year in existence. An index fund, also known colloquially as a tracker fund, is a fund that does nothing more exciting than set out to mimic the performance of one of the market indices that are regularly featured in media reports about the day’s events in the stock market.

Twenty-seven years ago, a shy 29-year-old engineering graduate from Cambridge University left his job as a trainee fund manager at an obscure South African investment company in London. In a move that some of his colleagues regarded as foolhardy, he had accepted an offer to join a little-known private American firm that had never sold an investment fund over here before, but thought that Britain under Margaret Thatcher — who had been elected just a few months earlier — might be a good place to try to break into the European investment market.

Conventional wisdom in the investment world is that it is hard, if not impossible, to call the really important turns in the stock market. You will struggle to find a professional investor who admits to being any good at market timing, and even more so to find a finance professor who will do anything but deplore those who have the presumption to try. In Winning the Loser’s Game, his brilliant analysis of the investment business, the American consultant Charlie Ellis speaks for the wise when he counsels private investors, ‘Market timing is a sin. Don’t ever try it.’ Warren Buffett agrees.