John Lough

The diesel deal between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump has finally broken the relationship between Washington and Kyiv. If the Republicans perform as badly as predicted in the midterms, Trump will blame Ukraine for triggering high diesel prices through his attacks on Russian refineries and could pull the plug on intelligence support and weapons sales to the country. For Putin, this is a dream come true. It promises to rescue him from a war that he began in the expectation of quick victory and has become a noose around his neck as Ukraine has fought back with increasing effectiveness. Its long-range drone and missile attacks over the past six months have brought the war home to the Russian population that was previously insulated from it.

For Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. Just as Moscow was tiring of the American president’s assurances that he could strong-arm Volodymyr Zelensky into accepting Russia’s terms for peace in Ukraine, the US-Israeli intervention in Iran caused a spike in the oil price. This has given Russia the chance to supply more oil to the global market and boost its flagging budget revenues. On balance, the war in the Middle East is set to bring significant benefits for Russia, but they will not be enough to bring about Putin’s most urgent desire: the defeat of Ukraine. Of course, the Russian president can bask in the glory of Russia being recognised by the United States as an indispensable energy superpower.

Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate a quick end to the war in Ukraine have run into trouble. As US negotiators meet with Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to explore possibilities for a comprehensive ceasefire, the Russian side is clearly going through the motions. Vladimir Putin’s call last week with Trump showed that he sees no need to stop fighting when he is winning. He believes that he can weaken Ukraine’s will to fight and encourage Trump to help him impose on Kyiv a Russian-designed peace settlement. So far, he has not sensed any determination on the part of the Trump administration to persuade him otherwise.