James Heale

When Rishi Sunak became Tory leader, the party was 30 points behind Labour: that kind of deficit has historically been terminal for a political party. But since then, inflation has slowed, the Northern Ireland Protocol has been resolved and a deportation deal with Albania meant small boat arrivals fell for the first time on record. That Labour lead has fallen closer to 15 points; one poll last weekend put it as low as 11. A Keir Starmer defeat is now at least conceivable. As one Labour party insider says: ‘Nice doesn’t win elections’ This is the context in which Labour has tried a new tactic: attacking the Prime Minister personally. ‘He is the Tories’ greatest single weapon,’ says one shadow cabinet member.

It’s a sign of the tensions within the parliamentary Conservative party that talk of colleagues swapping constituencies is currently a major talking point in the Commons tea rooms. This week two more members of the 2019 Tory intake announced that they would not be seeking re-election in their constituencies. Both Nicola Richards and Stuart Anderson released lengthy statements explaining their decision – but neither MP explicitly ruled out standing again in another seat. Keiran Mullan has meanwhile declined to comment on claims that he will switch from Crewe and Nantwich to the new Chester South and Eddisbury seat.

The remarkable thing about today’s Liaison Committee is how unremarkable it was. During the ninety-minute session with the chairmen of the House of Commons' select committees, the contrast with Boris Johnson’s box office battles could not have been clearer. Sunak sought to conciliate, downplay and comfort at every turn, seeking to offer warm words and switching his focus between the macro and the micro: matching MPs on specifics to assure them he was across the detail while taking difficult questions back to his first principles. Child refugees? We have to stop the boats. If Northern Ireland is in the single market, why not Scotland? The 2014 vote remains in force. NHS pay? There will be funds – but we must halve inflation.

Boris Johnson has just finished a mammoth three hour evidence session in front of the Privileges Committee inquiry into whether he misled the House about Covid guidance being broken in No. 10. It was a combative affair at times with Johnson displaying flashes of anger and irritation – understandable given it was twice as long as the Liaison Committee grillings he was used to as PM. If this were a boxing match, it would appear to be decided on a points decision, with neither side being able to land a killer blow: Johnson looked on the ropes at times but the committee were unable to conclusively prove that the ex-premier had knowingly misled the House. Still despite all the heat, there was some light in the proceedings, ahead of the committee's forthcoming report.

Boris Johnson has today published his long-awaited ‘partygate’ defence, ahead of his appearance before the Privileges Committee tomorrow afternoon. In the 52-page submission, Johnson accepts that he did mislead the House of Commons when he said that ‘the rules and guidance had been followed at all times’ during Covid. But he insists he made his statements ‘in good faith’ and that he ‘would never have dreamed’ of doing so intentionally. The committee claims that his submission ‘contains no new documentary evidence'; sources close to Johnson dispute this. Johnson’s defence broadly relies on three familiar arguments. The first is the absence of any smoking gun which proves that he definitely knew that the rules had been broken.