James Forsyth

We’re closing 2019 by republishing our ten most-read articles of the year. Here’s No. 1: James Forsyth's article from October on a key Brexit briefing from Downing Street: Earlier today, I sent a message to a contact in Number 10 asking them how the Brexit talks were going. They sent a long reply which I think gives a pretty clear sense of where they think things are. So, in the interest of trying to let people understand where Number 10 reckon the negotiations are, here is their response: ‘The negotiations will probably end this week. Varadkar doesn’t want to negotiate. Varadkar was keen on talking before the Benn Act when he thought that the choice would be ‘new deal or no deal’.

The thumping majority by which both the second reading and the programme motion for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill passed yesterday, confirmed that Boris Johnson will have no problem taking the UK out of the EU on January 31st. This sums up the remarkable position that this government is in. It will have done the main thing that it was put in power to do within less than two months of taking office. The danger for the Tories, as I say in The Sun this morning, is that their new electoral coalition was held together by a desire to ‘Get Brexit Done’ and fear of Jeremy Corbyn, and both of those issues will soon be resolved.

The era of uncertainty has ended. Boris Johnson’s decisive victory has not only broken the Brexit deadlock created by Theresa May’s disastrous 2017 campaign, but also turned the page on almost a decade of weak government. The previous three general elections have all resulted in constrained prime ministers. First, David Cameron was forced to govern in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Then, in 2015, his slim majority left him dependent on Tories who would be on the other side from him in the EU referendum he had had to promise. The May debacle left her at the mercy of — and defeated by — her own warring factions. But now we’re looking at something very different: a Prime Minister who is king of all he surveys at Westminster.

‘If Darlington high street isn’t visibly better in four years’ time, we’ll be in trouble’, one of Boris Johnson’s confidants told me the other day. Boris Johnson and his team are, as I say in The Sun this morning, acutely away that if they are going to make Thursday night’s electoral shift permanent then they are going to have to deliver for those places that swung to the Tories in this election. Part of Boris Johnson’s answer will be improving the infrastructure serving these places. In his interview with The Spectator during the campaign, he indicated that he was going to rip up the Treasury’s rules on capital spending to ensure that more gets built outside of London and the South East.

Boris Johnson has won one of the most spectacular election victories in recent British political history. He has broken the deadlock that has gripped British politics since the 2017 election, winning a much larger majority than anyone expected. He is, currently, projected to have a majority of 68. This victory means that the UK will leave the EU on the 31st of January. But it also means something else, and something that might turn out to be almost as important to the future of the country. This election has realigned British politics. The Tories have won Leigh, Workington, Wrexham, Ashfield, Bolsover, Darlington and a slew of other working class seats north of the Watford. At the same time, they have lost Putney and failed to regain Canterbury.

Elections should be carnivals of democracy, yet the campaign we have just been through has felt more like amateur dramatics at times – the standard of debate has not risen to the importance of the issues at stake. Yet this election will go down as one of the most consequential in British history. It has brought a profound change to our politics: not just that Brexit is now certain to happen, but also in the way that both main parties have transmogrified before our eyes – in terms of what they stand for, and who they appeal to. The list of Tory gains shows the extent of the change that has just taken place: Leigh, Workington, Clwyd South, Darlington, Wrexham, Burnley, Redcar, Scunthorpe and a slew of other working-class seats north of the Watford Gap.

Polling stations open in 15 hours time and this is an election where no one is certain what the result will be. The YouGov MRP shows a tightening race with the Tories currently on course for a majority in the twenties but with Labour closing strongly. On the YouGov MRP, if the Tory lead fell by one per cent Boris Johnson’s majority would go into the teens. If it dropped by two points, there would still be a Tory majority but it would be in single digits. The reports from the ground are mixed. In some places, Tories are surprisingly bullish, believing that the Corbyn factor will help them get over the line. In others, they fret that Labour has effectively changed the conversation away from Brexit.

In 72 hours time, voting will be well underway. We will be talking about turnout being ‘brisk’. Right now, the polls are indicating that a Tory majority is the most likely result. But it is not certain and a combination of three things could still stop it. First, mass Remainer tactical voting. The margins in this election are fine and if Remainers starting backing whoever was most likely to defeat the Tories in their seat, that could put a Tory majority at risk very quickly. There will be lots of calls for tactical voting in the coming days. But it is worth remembering that in 1997, when there was widespread anti-Tory tactical voting, the Labour and Lib Dem leaderships were politically close and hadn’t spent the campaign attacking each other.

There are, as I say in the Sun this morning, two possible outcomes to this election: a Tory majority or a hung parliament. The seats where Labour are now concentrating their resources show that they don’t think they can win outright. Instead, their hopes rest on stopping Boris Johnson from getting to 326 seats. Right now, the Tories are on course for a majority. I understand that their own internal numbers indicate a working majority. But these margins are very fine, and victory could slip away if voters don’t turn out. If Boris Johnson does win a majority next week, it will be because he has presented himself as change. Not just the person who can break the deadlock, but a leader with a different agenda to the one that the Tories have had these last nine years.