By May, the acute phase of the Covid crisis should be over. But the elections scheduled for that month threaten to throw the government into a fresh crisis.
Nicola Sturgeon looks set to lead the Scottish National Party to a majority in the Holyrood elections. Given that the SNP manifesto will commit the party to a second independence referendum, she will claim this victory as a mandate for holding one. But no legal referendum can take place without Westminster’s consent, which will be refused.
As Covid recedes into the distance, a fresh justification will be needed for saying no
But, as I argue in the Times today, the danger is that a two-letter answer with no further explanation could be seen as typical Tory, or English, arrogance.