James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
From our UK edition
This poll, if it is accurate, is big news: Barack Obama has drawn level with Hillary Clinton in national polls. If the numbers are to be believed, he’s up by seven points in the last month while she’s dropped by nine. Before we all get too excited, though, it is worth noting that this poll is out of sync the other national which still have Hillary ahead by a comfortable margin.
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This New York Times report on the progress of the surge is sobering reading. Despite the current push, two-thirds of Baghdad’s neighbourhoods remain outside of the control of US forces. But contrary to the way that these stories feed into the political process, this is not actually an argument for leaving. Indeed, until things improve you can’t contemplate withdrawing unless you’re prepared to accept genocidal violence. Recently the director of the Iraq Study Group reversed his position on whether the US and Britain could withdraw in 2008 and now argues that you’ve got to be in Iraq at roughly current levels for at least five years.
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This piece by the investigative journalist Tom Bower on Gordon Brown’s relationship with the civil service is well worth a click. According to Bower’s assessment of Brown’s record at the Treasury, there’s little chance that Brown will restore spin-free government.
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We all know a friend with an embarrassing second initial but Barack Obama’s H is particularly problematic. Hussein isn’t the pollster approved middle name for a US presidential candidate but amazingly 57% of the electorate think that this will be a problem for him in the campaign, that’s 13% percentage points more than the number who fret about the quasi-dynastic nature of a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton succession. This and many other fascinating polling numbers here, thanks to the Politico.
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James Forsyth talks to insiders in Washington and London about the biggest dilemma facing the next Prime Minister — and finds that, as much as Brown might like to break free of an unpopular conflict, his options are severely limited Gordon Brown could administer the coup de grâce to George W. Bush’s presidency. If, following the expected visits to Iraq and Washington in the first weeks of his premiership, Brown were to announce that British forces would be pulled out of Iraq by March 2008, then the already fragile support for the war in the US Congress would finally snap. Brown’s 100 days would be off to the blockbuster start that his acolytes have long dreamed of.
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The news that 256 schools are now failing to give their pupils an adequate education, even by our currently low standards, is as damning an indictment as anything of Blair’s decade. How on earth are these 3 million pupils to succeed in the knowledge economy’ without an education? Despite all the money that Blair has poured into education, taking per-pupil spending to about £5,000, standards have not improved anywhere near as much as they should because the structures are all wrong. This has left us in a situation where Turkey is the only OECD country with as large a gap in educational attainment between its private and public sectors.
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“Do we want to be a divided society where some people struggle and others spend £10,000 on a handbag?” Harriet Harman asked last night during the Labour deputy leadership debate. Comment Central and ConservativeHome both have good critiques of her remarks. I can’t help but wonder if Harman was hoping that we’d all think of Smythson at this point, the upmarket Bond Street shop where Mrs Cameron is the creative director and where a handbag goes for as much as £895. But then again, maybe I'm being too cynical and unfair on Ms Harman.
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For an interesting take on how Barack Obama’s presidential campaign is doing read this interview with David Axelrod, Obama’s political mastermind, by the veteran US political reporter Al Hunt. Hunt’s striking conclusion: “It's now only an even proposition that this "freak show" of scrutiny will do [Obama] in.If it doesn't, he has a better chance than any candidate to be the next president. That includes Clinton, who won't make major mistakes, or any of the Republicans. Obama's fate is largely in his own hands.
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This interview by Bibi Netanyahu with the Wall Street Journal is well worth reading. In it, Netanyahu sets out a third way between diplomacy and military action that could stop Iran going nuclear: divestment. He argues that if Western firms got out of Iran then the Iranian economy would fall even further, hitting the economic elite hard. Netanyahu hopes that “when they see their own holdings and their own businesses endangered, they'll put pressure to either block the nuclear program or to change the regime.” Considering that Iran is probably only a few years away from the bomb this would have to be tried now. It is encouraging, though, that Obama is behind a version of this.
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Well, after his innings of 226 today, there’s only one player who has scored more runs than him in their first twenty five tests and that’s Don Bradman. Pietersen might actually be as good as he thinks he is.
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Despairing about how to get on the property ladder in London? Then you might want to talk to a 70 year old tramp called Harry Hallowes who’s ended up with a £3 million Hampstead property for squat all.
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Iain Dale is running a rather cheeky competition to name the most incompetent Labour minister. As his comments section demonstrates, there’s no shortage of candidates. The question is will things get better when Gordon take over? The stereotype of the Brownites has them down as competent if colourless Roundheads—think Alistair Darling, Douglas Alexander—in contrast to the Blairite Cavaliers. But when you think back through the really spectacular muck-ups by this government a fair few have been perpetrated by Brownites: Foot and mouth? Nick Brown. Iran hostage crisis? Des Browne. Home information packs? Yvette Cooper, as Benedict Brogan has chronicled. So, the idea that Brown will usher in an era of boring but effective government seems rather misplaced.
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ABC News has an interesting report on the CIA’s new covert Iran strategy which is designed to get the Iranians to stop enriching uranium and arming elements of the insurgency in Iraq. As the report note, this new covert strategy means that the Bush administration has decided against military action for the time being. Yet with the Bush administration believing that Iran is only two years away from having the know-how to build a bomb, something will have to give soon. There is no way Bush will leave office with Iran well on its way to nuclear status. But equally, the Iranians seem to believe that is now or never for them and their nuclear ambitions.
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Over at Comment is Free, Martin Kettle has an interesting post on which 20th Century British Prime Ministers deserve to be classified as outstanding. Kettle thinks that 11 deserve the accolade with Asquith, Churchill, Attlee and Thatcher in the first rank of those who did great things in great times, Baldwin, Macmillan and Heath in the second of those who did great things in more settled times and a third of Salisbury, Lloyd George, Wilson and Blair who have a more mixed record. I must admit that I’d be a little meaner. To my mind, Churchill. Attlee and Thatcher make the first rank, with Macmillan and Blair in the second and the two Liberals Asquith and Lloyd George in the third. What do you think? Comment away.
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Do read this alarming story from the New York Times about Iran’s nuclear programme and their new found ability to "enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before." This quote from an anonymous diplomat pithily sums up the situation we find ourselves in: “The key decision you have to make right now,” the diplomat said, “is that if you don’t want the breakout scenario, you would have to freeze the Iranian program at a laboratory scale. Because if you continue this stalemate, that will bring you, eventually, to a breakout capability.” The Iranian crisis is coming down the tracks fast. Sadly, hoping it will go away or that the Iranians will stop if asked nicely is no longer a strategy.
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Sadly direct talks between Iran and the United States won’t persuade Tehran to stop causing trouble in Iraq or halt work on its nuclear programme. Indeed, I think the mantra that Iran and the West share interests in Iraq is rather naïve. If the Iranians want a stable Iraq, as we are so often reassured, they certainly have a funny way of showing it. But equally, there’s little harm in talking as long as you don’t give away the shop while doing it. The Americans also have to show that they have gone the extra mile for peace if they’re going to have any hope of preserving the current coalition against Tehran when push comes to shove. This snippet from the LA Times, flagged up by TNR, indicates that negotiating with Iran will be far from simple, though. U.S.
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I’ve heard the Iraq war blamed for many things but this one takes the biscuit. According to an analyst on the Today Programme, our abject failure in the Eurovision Song Contest is a consequence of the ill-feeling created by the invasion of Iraq. Have a listen here, the clip starts at 7.48am.
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Do read this charming Washington Post story about the small Irish village which records suggest Barack Obama’s ancestors hailed from.
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The BBC is reporting that in a rather unconvincing effort to foster the impression of party unity Blairite ultras Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers will nominate Brown for the Labour leadership. Who said the era of spin was dead? Some, though, aren’t so keen to ignore the past. Conservative Home has produced a video to rain on Brown’s parade. We’ll have analysis on Brown’s campaign launch throughout the day; apparently, the slogan will be “Brown for Britain.” We’ll also be keeping an eye on the race to be the next John Prescott. Word is that 2 of the 6 contenders are struggling to get the requisite 44 nominations.
From our UK edition
The most striking thing about that speech was its unabashed patriotism. What started with the bulldog in the party political broadcast in 1997, finished with those words about Britain being a blessed nation, the best on earth.