James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Saturday

James Forsyth

Obama’s lead down to three points

From our UK edition

We should be wary about getting overexcited about a single opinion poll but the new Newsweek poll will be causing some heartburn among Obama supporters. Last month’s Newsweek poll put Obama ahead of McCain 51 to 36 but in this month’s poll the gap has closed to Obama 44 McCain 41. The McCain camp can take further encouragement from the fact that 85 percent of undecided voters are non-Hispanic whites and the vast majority of these voters do not have a college degree; Obama has had real difficulty in gaining traction among this demographic. Obama’s lead in the RCP average is now less than five percent.

James Forsyth

Labour need a message but not Ed’s one

From our UK edition

One of the problems besetting this government is that it lacks a narrative; Cabinet Ministers cannot put their policies into context and voters cannot tell what you the government is for. In The Independent today, Andrew Grice argues that a message and a messenger are prerequisites of a Brown recovery and it is hard to disagree. Ed Miliband’s interview in The Guardian hints at one possible message for Brown. Miliband talks about the importance of showing there is a “Labour way of getting through the downturn." But what Miliband means by that is just old fashioned governmental solutions. As he says about the new challenges that have emerged since 1997: “All of those demand a role for government, in essentially making the benefits and burdens of those challenges fair.

James Forsyth

The UN is not designed to be moral

From our UK edition

The decision by Russia and China to veto sanctions against Zimbabwe should finally remove the scales from peoples’ eyes about the role and purpose of the United Nations. The UN’s founding purpose, at which it has been effective, was to prevent great power conflict. That is why the UN cannot act without the consent of every one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. Two of the Council’s members--Russia, a ‘managed democracy’, and China, a Communist dictatorship—have no interest in embedding in international affairs the idea that internal repression and the failure to hold free and fair elections justify the international community taking action against a country. Those waiting for the UN to act morally are hoping against type.

Friday

James Forsyth

David Davis to be Tory civil liberties tsar

From our UK edition

The Telegraph is reporting that next week David Cameron will invite David Davis to take on a role overseeing Tory policy on civil liberties. Presumably, the hope is that this will ensure that Davis is more inside the tent than out. It does not, though, solve the problem of the balance of the Tory top team. Davis’s resignation removed one of two the Tories who was most effective at connecting with the C2s and the party need to find someone to plug this gap. The most frequently touted solution to this problem is to move Eric Pickles into the role of party chairman. Turnout of 34.

James Forsyth

If Brown can’t win in Scotland, where can he win?

From our UK edition

There is another set of depressing poll numbers for Gordon Brown today. A new YouGov poll for The Telegraph has the SNP ahead of Labour in general election voting intention for the first time—the SNP is on 33, Labour 29, the Tories 20 and the Lib Dems 14. Although as Anthony Wells notes, Labour would still have (if there was a uniform swing) the most seats in Scotland—31 to the SNP’s 14, with 10 for the Lib Dems and four for the Tories. The extent of dissatisfaction with Labour north of the border is demonstrated by the fact that 49 percent of voters there would like to see Labour lose Glasgow East to the SNP, compared to the third who would like to see Labour hold on. Nervous Labour MPs must be wondering where this all ends.

James Forsyth

Labour’s depressed MPs

From our UK edition

If you want to get a sense for how demoralised Labour MPs are at the moment read John Kampfner in The Telegraph today. Kampfner writes that: “Several senior figures I have spoken to in recent weeks say they are considering standing down before the next election. This is a natural process, but such a retirement process accelerates as the prospect of opposition beckons. But my straw poll suggests the numbers thinking of quitting Labour benches may be unprecedented. They know that something terrible is afoot: the collapse of centre-Left politics, not only in Britain but across Europe.” Oddly enough, this sense of despair is one of the things keeping Brown safe. If you think you’re going to be wiped out anyway why bother going through the trauma of deposing a leader?

James Forsyth

David Davis gets the decent turnout he needed

From our UK edition

David Davis cruised to victory last night in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election with 72 percent of the vote on a 34 percent turnout. Turnout was high enough for Davis to avoid embarrassment and attests to his popularity in his constituency. But one is still left wondering why he resigned as an MP forfeiting the chance to be the next Home Secretary to fight this by-election when his own party’s position was the same as his. The question now becomes will Cameron bring Davis back. It is clear that Cameron will not reshuffle straight away to return Davis to his team, he doesn’t need to and Davis’s rash actions have made lots of those around the party leader even more wary of him.

Thursday

James Forsyth

The Beijing Olympic Spirit

From our UK edition

There is an important piece in The Washington Post today detailing how China is imprisoning and harassing political activists in the run up to the games: As the Olympics draw near, Chinese security officials appear to be targeting people who could channel information about rights abuses and government corruption to foreigners by publishing, as Huang's Web site does, in Chinese and English. The site, http://www.64tianwang.com, is hosted on a server in the United States and is blocked in China by government censors. "The government has locked itself into a fictional account that the Chinese population has no interest in human rights and no criticism against the preparation of the Olympic Games," said Nicholas Bequelin, a Hong Kong-based researcher for Human Rights Watch.

James Forsyth

Salmond’s airs and graces

From our UK edition

Kevin Maguire reports in the New Statesman that Alex Salmond has taken to signing his letters: Yours of Scotland, Alex It is hard to think of a more pompous valediction.

James Forsyth

Brown’s Praetorians close ranks

From our UK edition

Ben Brogan, one of the most plugged-in journalists in Westminster, has a great scoop about a Brownite whipping operation which bypasses Geoff Hoon, the chief whip, and reports directly to the PM. Now, as Ben points out, Hoon has actually been quite successful as chief whip. This suggests to me that the real reason for the move is that the PM and his most loyal supporters believe they can no longer rely on Hoon; they fear that he will put the good of the party above that of the leader. Hoon is mentioned in nearly every possible scenario for how Brown might be deposed. So in some ways it is not surprising that there are jitters about him among the Brownites. But cutting him out of the loop like this seems a sure-fire way to put distance between him and Brown.

James Forsyth

Should Labour get the defeat out of the way as quickly as possible?

From our UK edition

There is an absolutely fascinating post by Simon Carr over at Open House. Carr reports that Labour SPADs are kicking around the idea that a Cabinet delegation should force Brown to stand down, install a new leader and hold a snap election which Labour would lose. The thinking behind this scheme is that it would lump the Tories with governing in the worst of economic times and set Labour up for a comeback victory in 2012/13. Essentially, it is a Labour version of the argument that it would have been good for the Tories to lose in 1992 as that would have left Labour to deal with Black Wednesday and reinforced its reputation for economic incompetence.

James Forsyth

The terminal dozen

From our UK edition

The opening of Terminal 5 was a national humiliation but it seems that the problems there aren’t fixed yet. The trade union that handles the baggage at T5 claim that passengers have a one in twelve chance of losing their bag at the terminal if they are taking a connecting flight from there; incredibly there is no mechanical system for moving the bags that arrive on flights that land at Terminal 4 to the new terminal. I really do not understand why in this country both the public and private sectors are so incapable of pulling off what the French call le grand projet. I fear that the cost over-runs and the cock-ups associated with London 2012 will make the opening of Terminal 5 look like a raging success.

James Forsyth

Brown’s confused media strategy

From our UK edition

I must admit to being slightly puzzled by Gordon Brown’s interview in The New Statesman this week with GMTV’s political editor, Gloria De Piero. It is a full of the kind of humanising detail that would work well in a to camera piece but looks slightly strange on the printed page. One wonders why Brown’s spin doctors didn’t go the whole hog and send him off to the GMTV sofa to talk about these things? Indeed, this interview seems rather typical of the half in-half out approach that has so come to characterise the Brown government: sign the Lisbon Treaty, but turn up late to the ceremony; have the Olympic flame paraded down Downing Street, but don’t actually touch it; meet the Dalai Lama, but don’t see him at No. 10 or in the Commons.

James Forsyth

Labour pains | 10 July 2008

From our UK edition

Another day, another slew of stories about how Brown—or Heathcliff, as we should perhaps now call him—might be removed. The Guardian reports that the PM has been holding meetings with small groups of Labour MPs in an attempt to shore up his position. However, the meetings are not going according to plan as Brown apparently just thumps the table and urges the MPs to tell their constituents about what Labour has done for them. The Guardian recounts that when Brown blamed Labour’s poor poll ratings on the global economic turbulence, one former minister challenged him, saying: "Many say you are the problem. What are you going to do about it?" Brown avoided answering by taking questions from other MPs.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Public opinion on 42 days unchanged by the Davis by-election

From our UK edition

Results from Politics Home’s tracker poll of 5,000 voters suggest that David Davis still has a long way to go in his campaign to shift public opinion on 42 days. Politics Home reports that: “the number of people who oppose 42-day detention has remained largely unchanged. If anything, it has dropped since his resignation. PoliticsHome has twice asked the PHI 5000: "do you support or oppose extending the period that terrorist suspects can be held without charge from 28 days to 42?" On the 20th June, 65% supported the extension and 31% opposed. On the 7th July, 66% supported 42 days and 30% opposed it.” What I was more surprised by was that Davis’s personal ratings have not improved.

James Forsyth

Purnell on manoeuvres

From our UK edition

A fraternal friend of Coffee House is in touch to say that at a recent TUC drinks-do James Purnell stayed longer than any other minister and shook hands with everyone he could. Now, one would not think of Purnell with his snazzy suits and Blairite politics as someone who would seek out the company of the brothers. But needs must, the Unions will have a third of the votes in any Labour leadership contest and any new Labour Prime Minister would need a large amount of Union money to finance a general election campaign. Combine this with the fact that Purnell has recently shaved off his sideburns and one might conclude that he is taking Fraser Nelson’s advice rather seriously.

James Forsyth

Fear or stupidity?

From our UK edition

My first reaction on hearing of what Harriet Harman said at PMQs today about her becoming Prime Minister—she joked that if it wouldn’t be possible because there isn’t enough airport capacity to allow all the men who would want to, to leave the country—was that fear of Gordon’s henchmen had again led a possible leadership contender to go to absurd lengths to rule themselves out, remember how Alan Johnson declared he wasn’t intellectually up to the job of being PM on Desert Island Discs last autumn. But others told me I was being far too generous to Ms Harman and that she actually froze and couldn’t find a way out of the hole she was digging herself into.

James Forsyth

Is this Labour’s new argument for airport expansion?

From our UK edition

Today, at Prime Minister’s Question Time, Harriet Harman—standing in for Gordon Brown—joked that she could not become PM because: “there aren’t enough airports for all the men who would want to leave the country” Well, at least it will give the "race and gender impact" study into a third runway at Heathrow something to look at.

James Forsyth

Harriet Harman’s home should be protected

From our UK edition

I think the idea of Harriet Harman as Prime Minister is ridiculous but she is a member of the Cabinet and would probably be the PM if Gordon fell under the proverbial bus. So, we should all be concerned about the frequency with which Fathers for Justice are able to climb onto her roof. It is a rather worrying statement about the level of protection afforded her that Fathers for Justice have for the second time in little over a month gained access to the roof of her house. Now, I can already hear people saying that it is a harmless protest. But what worries me is that the police are unaware of these incidents until they are informed of them.