James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Saturday

James Forsyth

Cameron, policy and personality

From our UK edition

There are couple of very revealing interviews with David Cameron in the papers today. Talking to James Chapman and Peter Oborne of the Mail, Cameron expounds on the Tory policy response to the financial crisis. Here’s the key passage: At a time when some economists are projecting that Government borrowing is set to crash through the £100 billion barrier, he says an incoming Tory government will take away key powers to oversee tax and spending from the Treasury. So a crucial supervisory role will be handed to an outside body which will be given independent powers to monitor spending and borrowing levels. Cameron will explain next week how this body would work. ... ‘The fiscal rules haven't worked  -  it's obvious.

James Forsyth

Debate watch

From our UK edition

You can watch last night’s debate and read a transcript of it here. The insta-polls give the debate to Obama by a relatively comfortable margin. Time’s Mark Halperin also scores it to Obama while the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza suggests that McCain might have edged it. More later.

James Forsyth

Your chance to vote in the Spectator awards

From our UK edition

After a gripping week of political theatre in Manchester, James Forsyth invites readers to submit nominations for a new category in our Parliamentarian of the Year Awards: the prize for the Readers’ Representative If a week is a long time in politics, then a year is an absolute age. In Manchester, Labour delegates appeared staggered by what has happened since the party’s last conference. Now it is the Brownites, not the Cameroons, who take comfort in how quickly things can change, with Ed Balls reassuring Labour supporters that because things have gone so wrong for Labour since last September, they can go equally wrong for the Tories next year. The last 12 months have been the most dramatic in British politics since the Tories came from behind to win in 1992.

Friday

James Forsyth

McCain must win tonight’s debate to get his campaign back on track

From our UK edition

John McCain will attend tonight’s debate despite there not yet being a deal on the bailout. Realistically, McCain couldn’t afford to miss it. Obama’s biggest weakness is still the Commander in Chief test: McCain has to ram home the point that he is significantly better qualified for this role than Obama if he is to have a real chance of winning the election. McCain also has to better Obama tonight to regain momentum. The last week of presidential campaign coverage has been dominated by a string of stories that hurt McCain. First, there was the row over McCain’s campaign manager’s alleged ties to Freddie Mac.

James Forsyth

McNulty for Chief Whip?  

From our UK edition

The Sun reports today that Tony McNulty is the new favourite to replace Geoff Hoon as Chief Whip. George Pascoe-Watson reveals that Brown was told by a Minister that if he appointed Nick Brown to the job, “All hell would break. It would destroy any Cabinet unity and people would feel very uncomfortable.” McNulty would be a savvy choice by Brown. As he showed during the 42 days debate he knows how to persuade Labour MPs to stay on side. He is a friendly and engaging presence on TV and is long overdue promotion to the Cabinet. Brown’s reshuffle dilemma is that he needs to be bold to show that the government has changed but he’s too weak to risk alienating members of the Cabinet by sacking or demoting them.

James Forsyth

Crashed Ferraris

From our UK edition

A great stat about the financial crisis from the Daily Mail: "There were 734 second-hand Ferraris placed on the market last week.

James Forsyth

Brown’s St Helena moment

From our UK edition

Martin Kettle’s column this morning contains an absolutely astonishing example of how much of a control freak Brown is: “Four years ago, ministers decided that Britain's South Atlantic island possession of St Helena needed to have an airport. If planes could land on the tiny island, more than 1,200 miles from the nearest continent, its economic and demographic decline could perhaps be turned around. Plans began to be made. The airport was scheduled to open in 2010. Earlier this year, the Foreign Office finally asked the Department for International Development to sign off on the airport. The file went up to the secretary of state, Douglas Alexander. But instead of giving the go-ahead himself, Alexander was required to pass the decision up to Downing Street.

Thursday

James Forsyth

Bush’s bailout plea

From our UK edition

President Bush’s dramatic statement to the nation last night was aimed at persuading recalcitrant House Republicans to support the bailout bill. His bald statement that without immediate action by Congress, “America could slip into a financial panic, and a distressing scenario would unfold” was meant to create the political pressure to bring them into line. Today, Obama and McCain will join key Congressional leaders at the White House to try and hammer out a deal. McCain in a bold but risky moved has pushed for postponing the first presidential debate on Friday until Congress reaches a deal. Obama has cleverly responded by saying the president should be able to multi-task.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Who will be the new Chief Whip?

From our UK edition

If Geoff Hoon is to be moved in the coming reshuffle, which seems almost certain, who to make the new Chief Whip will be a telling and tricky decision for the PM. Many Brown loyalists are furious about Hoon’s light-touch approach to the rebels. His comments about the rebellion have been ambivalent—“I simply don’t think at this stage it’s appropriate” is hardly a ringing endorsement—and they fume that Chief Whips are meant to put the thumb-screws on rebels rather than treating them with kid gloves. Brown must be tempted to move a loyalist into the slot. But if someone did start putting the rebels on the rack, that could push a bunch of the quietly disaffected over the edge.

James Forsyth

This is no time for a meeting

From our UK edition

The Telegraph is reporting that Gordon Brown will not be seeing the US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, the main mover on the US bailout plan, on his trip to the States. This is despite Brown saying in his conference speech that “I and then Alistair will meet financial and government leaders in New York” to make proposals for how to stabilise and “rebuild the world financial system” Brown desperately needed to come out of the Labour conference with some momentum. But the Ruth Kelly resignation and the fact that his meetings in New York on the financial crisis in New York are far from high-powered have denied him that. It is now imperative for Brown that the post-conference polls show a bounce for Labour.

James Forsyth

There are some things only a woman can do

From our UK edition

Harriet Harman in many ways had the easiest speech of the conference to deliver. All she had to do was throw red meat to the delegates – but she did so effectively. Certainly, the standing ovation that the two thirds full hall gave her was far more sustained and heart-felt than the one David Miliband received earlier in the week. Harman’s speech was based around a highly feminised attack on David Cameron. It is personal and unpleasant--it assumes that Cameron is the kind of man who’ll say anything to have his ‘wicked way’ with you and then will forget about you. But I wonder if it could be effective; it does, though, require a woman to deliver it.

James Forsyth

How Kelly is hurting Brown

From our UK edition

Ruth Kelly’s resignation has guaranteed that Brown’s speech is going to be a one day story. Rumours are swirling about why she has gone and why the news leaked out now—the worst time for Brown. In her speech to conference just now, Kelly said what a privilege it had been to work with both Blair and Brown. But tellingly her last line was ‘we can and must do better.

James Forsyth

Brown’s speech – the aftermath

From our UK edition

Here in Manchester, Team Brown are making little attempt to pretend that the ‘no time for a novice’ line wasn’t aimed at David Miliband as much—if not more—than David Cameron. Indeed, after the whole ‘six out of ten’ ‘Heseltine’ debacle and the photos of Miliband looking slightly ridiculous most people here are shorting Miliband. If he wants to keep up the buzz that has surrounded him, he is going to have to fight to re-establish his authority. Yet at the same time, the gloss is coming off Brown’s speech with every hour that passes. The realisation that nothing has really changed is sinking in, Jackie Ashley neatly sums up the situation here. I do, though, think Brown has left a significant opening for the Tories.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Cometh the hour, cometh the Harman?

From our UK edition

Gordon Brown’s speech hasn’t changed the fact that Labour still have to fight the Glenthroes by-election at some point. If Labour lose that—as all the people I’ve spoken to who know Scottish politics thinks they will—then Labour will face its moment of decision: will it go down to a massive defeat under Brown’s leadership or will it at least try and rally under a new leader. If it takes the latter option, I don’t expect David Miliband to win the ensuing leadership contest. The electoral college works against him and he hasn’t helped himself this week. His speech didn’t win any new converts to his cause and the weird set of facial expressions that he pulled at the end of it made him look ridiculous.

James Forsyth

Brown’s speech was no game-changer

From our UK edition

I’m in a minority in thinking that Brown’s speech didn’t do what it had to do. I agree that the ‘no time for a novice’ line was an effective swipe at David Miliband and the Tory top team of Cameron and Osborne. But - and this is why I believe the speech will be seen as a failure in the medium-term - it failed to change the terms of debate. It left British politics on essentially the same course as before: a course that ends in an epic defeat for Labour. Brown has little left in the locker now. His wife has been deployed to try and protect him, he has thrown his life open to the public and he has attacked David Cameron in the most personal terms possible.

James Forsyth

Have we heard it all before?

From our UK edition

We haven’t seen the details yet of Brown’s internet announcement but the Tories are already pointing out how it is not new. Indeed, it should already have happened by now, given what Labour promised back in 2004. “Our country and its people prospering in the knowledge economy. Increasing by £1 billion the investment in science, boosting support to small businesses and ending the digital divide by bringing broadband technology to every home in Britain that wants it by 2008." P.S. The Coffee House team will be live-blogging Brown's speech later.  Tune in from just after 2pm.

Monday

James Forsyth

A Friday reshuffle could be fatal to Brown

From our UK edition

A report on Politics Home has sparked off speculation here in Manchester that Brown will reshuffle his Cabinet before the end of this week. It is easy to see why this might appeal to the Brownites; the rebels are still not sure what to do next, David Miliband can’t decide whether to go for it or not and Brown’s authority is getting a temporary boost from conference. But this option is fraught with risk. First, there is the danger that a Minister might simply refuse to move—one has let it be known that he would walk rather relinquish his current job. Second, for any reshuffle to actually do anything for the government’s fortunes in the medium term it would have to move around the people in the top three jobs. Doing that, though, could bring down Brown.

James Forsyth

The voters – not Miliband – will have to do for Brown

From our UK edition

As I wrote earlier, Miliband did fine today. But, as Nick Robinson says, the speech did not have the electricity to inspire Labour to dump Gordon. Of course, they might well still end up doing so. But - on today's evidence - it won’t be because they're particularly enthused by the idea of Prime Minister David Miliband. I suspect that Brown’s address tomorrow will not be as decisive as people are expecting. Brown’s conference speeches are never great but they are always adequate. Adequate tomorrow will buy Brown some time but it won’t end the leadership speculation. As soon as the date is named for the Glenrothes by-election, all the chatter about whether Brown can survive will start up again.