James Forsyth

There are signs that the presidential race is on the verge of tipping decisively Obama’s way. A string of polls in battleground states have shown Obama moving into strong leads and even those swing states like Missouri and Florida that were leaning McCain are now going Obama’s way. In a sign of the McCain’s campaign difficulty, McCain is reportedly pulling out of Michigan—long regarded as his best chance for flipping a large, normally Democratic state—which would seriously limit his options for getting to 270 Electoral College votes. One of the reasons that the McCain campaign is in such trouble is Sarah Palin. She has gone from being an asset to the ticket to a drag on it.

The financial crisis might be giving Gordon Brown a temporary boost but when you consider the issues the next election is likely to be fought on you see that Cameron has quite a distinct advantage. By the time of the next election, the economy will be—or will have been—in recession, shining a light on Brown’s actual economic record and making it harder for him to claim that all the trouble has come from America. Huge amounts will still have been spent on public services without the desired results and the problems of a broken society will, sadly, still be with us. This is not where the Tory advantage ends.

Even though it is Tory conference week, I think the most important political story of the week might be the expected Cabinet reshuffle. If Brown gets it wrong, the chances of him being pushed out before the next election will increase dramatically. Judging from today’s papers, it seems that the Brownite poision is now being directed against James Purnell. This is unbelievably foolish. Purnell has been one of the very few successes of the Brown government and demoting him would likely prompt a rebellion in the Cabinet and the party. Brown’s principal reshuffle problem is that he can afford to move very few people but a minor reshuffle would be another demonstration of just how weak his position is. Of course, Brown could always put it off.

There has been a lot of talk about how the Tories must avoid becoming complacent. Indeed, one-half expects to find that champagne is only available under the counter in Birmingham. But just as great a danger is posed by indiscipline. Take today’s papers. Dominic Grieve, the shadow Home Secretary, has stepped on the Tory economic message by giving an interview to The Guardian in which he criticises multiculturalism and bemoans that "We've actually done something terrible to ourselves in Britain". The issue here is not what Grieve said but when he said it. His predecessor, David Davis, has talked to the Telegraph about his new role on the backbenches. He hasn’t been disloyal but has said just enough for his comments to be presented as a Tories split story. The Telegraph.co.